Asymmetric Effect of Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment: A Nardl Analysis for The Turkish Economy

Öz

This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric effects of inflation on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Turkish economy during the period 1984-2022, using the ARDL and NARDL approaches. The findings indicate that the effect of inflation on FDI is asymmetric in both the long run and the short run for the Turkish economy. The estimated NARDL model revealed that the long-run asymmetric inflation coefficients and the real exchange rate and foreign trade deficit variables were statistically significant. These results indicate that a positive shock in the inflation rate has a negative impact on FDI inflows in the long run, while a negative shock in inflation has a positive effect on FDI inflows. Furthermore, the real exchange rate and trade deficit variables are predicted to have a positive and negative effect on FDI inflows, respectively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment
• Inflation
• ARDL
• NARDL
• Türkiye

Enflasyonun Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Nardl Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyonun doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) üzerine simetrik ve asimetrik etkileri 1984-2022 döneminde, ARDL ve NARDL yaklaşımları kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisi için enflasyonun doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerine etkisinin hem uzun dönemde hem de kısa dönemde asimetrik olduğunu göstermektedir. Tahmin edilen NARDL modelinde uzun dönem asimetrik enflasyon katsayıları ve kontrol değişkeni olarak ele alınan reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret açığı değişkenleri istatistiksel anlamlı bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlara göre, enflasyon oranında meydana gelen bir artış uzun dönemde doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerini olumsuz etkilerken, enflasyonda kaydedilen azalış ise doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerine olumlu etki yapmaktadır. Bununla birlikte reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret açığı değişkenlerinin, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerinde, sırasıyla, pozitif ve negatif etkilere sahip olduğu öngörülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar
• Enflasyon
• ARDL
• NARDL
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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