Hukuk ve Enflasyon İlişkili Midir? NIC Ülkeleri Örneği

Öz

Hukuk düzeyi, yasal çerçevenin adil uygulanmasını sağlarken yüksek enflasyon ise alım gücünü düşürüp ekonomik büyümeyi yavaşlatarak belirsizliği artırmaktadır. Bu nedenle hukukun üstünlüğü ile enflasyon ilişkisi refah ve ekonomik istikrar için önemlidir. Çalışmanın amacı NIC (Brezilya, Çin, Hindistan, Endonezya, Malezya, Meksika, Filipinler, Güney Afrika, Tayland ve Türkiye) ülkelerinde hukukun üstünlüğünün enflasyon üzerindeki uzun ve kısa dönem etkilerini belirleyebilmektir. Bu amaçla çalışmada 2000-2022 dönemi enflasyon oranı, hukuk üstünlüğü endeksi, yabancı yatırımlar ve döviz kuru verileri kullanılarak panel ARDL analiz yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Çalışma bulgularında uzun dönemde; hukuk üstünlüğü ile enflasyon arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve negatif ilişki elde edilmiştir. Yabancı yatırım ile enflasyon arasında ise istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve pozitif ilişki görülmektedir. Kısa dönem bulguları değerlendirildiğinde ise sadece hukuk üstünlüğü değişkeni istatistiki olarak anlamlıdır ve pozitif ilişki söz konusudur. Nitekim NIC ülkelerinde hukukun üstünlüğü ve enflasyonun uzun dönemde anlamlı ilişkinin geçerliliği ortaya konarak bulgular değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hukuk Üstünlüğü
• NIC Ülkeleri
• Panel ARDL Analizi

Are Law and Inflation Related? The Example of NIC Countries

Öz

The level of law ensures the fair application of the legal framework, while high inflation reduces purchasing power and slows down economic growth, increasing uncertainty. Therefore, the relationship between the rule of law and inflation is important for welfare and economic stability. The aim of the study is to determine the long-term and short-term effects of the rule of law on inflation in NIC countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey). For this purpose, the panel ARDL analysis method was applied in the study using the inflation rate, rule of law index, foreign investments and exchange rate data for the period 2000-2022. In the study findings, a statistically significant and negative relationship between the rule of law and inflation was observed in the long run. Additionally, a statistically significant and positive relationship was identified between foreign investment and inflation. In evaluating the short-term findings, only the rule of law variable was found to be statistically significant, with a positive relationship. Accordingly, the findings demonstrate the validity of the significant relationship between the rule of law and inflation in the long run for NIC countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rule of Law
• NIC Countries
• Panel ARDL Analysis

Kaynakça

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