Sektörel İstihdam Bağlamında Türkiye'de Tekstil İstihdamını Etkileyen Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi: ARDL Sınır ve Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) Nedensellik Testi

Öz

Sektörel istihdam, bir ülkenin ekonomik yapısının hayati bir bileşenidir ve tekstil endüstrisi Türkiye'nin sanayileşmesinde ve istihdam yaratılmasında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışma, Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi ve Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) Nedensellik analizini kullanarak 2009-2023 yılları arasında Türkiye'de tekstil istihdamının belirleyicilerini araştırmaktadır. Sonuçlar, reel efektif döviz kurunun istihdamı negatif yönde etkilediğini, tekstil işyeri sayısının ise anlamlı bir pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, tekstil ithalatı ve Brent petrol fiyatları istihdam ile güçlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi sergilemekte ve küresel ekonomik faktörlerin yerel istihdam yaratma üzerindeki etkisini vurgulamaktadır. Bulgular, sektörün döviz dalgalanmalarına ve ticaret dinamiklerine olan duyarlılığını vurgulamaktadır. Döviz kurlarını istikrara kavuşturan ve tekstil sektöründe girişimciliği teşvik eden uzun vadeli politikalar istihdamı artırabilir. Ayrıca, Türkiye'nin küresel pazara erişimini elverişli anlaşmalar ve azaltılmış tarifeler yoluyla iyileştiren dış ticaret politikaları büyümeyi teşvik etmek için gereklidir. Başta petrol fiyatları olmak üzere enerji maliyetlerinin ele alınması, büyük ölçüde ithal hammaddelere dayanan tekstil sektöründe rekabet gücünün korunması için çok önemlidir. Bu görüşler, sürdürülebilir istihdam artışını ve dış şoklara karşı dayanıklılığı desteklemek için koordineli dış ticaret, enerji ve sanayi politikalarına duyulan ihtiyacın altını çizmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sektörel İstihdam
• Tekstil İstihdamı
• İstihdam

Determination of Factors Affecting Textile Employment in Türkiye in the Context of Sectoral Employment: ARDL Bound and Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) Causality Test

Öz

Sectoral employment is a vital component of a country's economic structure, with the textile industry playing a crucial role in Türkiye's industrialization and job creation. This study investigates the determinants of textile employment in Türkiye from 2009 to 2023, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test and Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) Causality analysis. The results reveal that the real effective exchange rate negatively impacts employment, while the number of textile workplaces has a significant positive effect. Furthermore, textile imports and Brent oil prices exhibit a strong causal relationship with employment, emphasizing the influence of global economic factors on domestic job creation. The findings highlight the sector's sensitivity to foreign exchange fluctuations and trade dynamics. Long-term policies stabilizing exchange rates and fostering entrepreneurship in the textile industry could enhance employment. Additionally, foreign trade policies that improve Türkiye's global market access through favorable agreements and reduced tariffs are essential for stimulating growth. Addressing energy costs, particularly oil prices, is crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the textile sector, which relies heavily on imported raw materials. These insights underscore the need for coordinated foreign trade, energy, and industrial policies to support sustainable employment growth and resilience against external shocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sectoral Employment
• Textile Employment
• Employment

Kaynakça

1. Abdioğlu, Z., & Albayrak, N. (2017). İstihdam yaratmayan büyüme: Alt sektörler bazinda bir araştırma. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(13), 215–228. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sbed/issue/30354/327888
2. Akiş, E. (2020). Türkiye’de enflasyon ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişki (2005 – 2020). Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 49, 403–420. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/yyusbed/issue/57069/804686
3. Akkay, R. C. (2021). The real effective exchange rate and industrial employment: The Turkish case. Business and Economics Research Journal, 12(3), 491–507. https://doi.org/10.20409/berj.2021.334
4. Altay, B., Topçu, M., & Erdogan, E. (2013). Oil price, output and employment in Turkey: Evidence from vector error correction model. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3(4), 7–13. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijeeep/issue/31907/350758
5. Amiri, A., & Ventelou, B. (2012). Granger causality between total expenditure on health and GDP in OECD: Evidence from the Toda–Yamamoto Approach. Economics Letters, 116(3), 541–544. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONLET.2012.04.040
6. Azazi̇, H., & Topkaya, Ö. (2017) Petrol fiyatlarındaki değişikliğin Türkiye imalat sanayi ve istihdamı üzerindeki etkileri. Journal of Selçuk University Social Sciences Vocational School, 20(1), 14–26. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/selcuksbmyd/issue/28683/278086
7. Ball, L., Jalles, J. T., & Loungani, P. (2015). Do forecasters believe in Okun’s Law? An assessment of unemployment and output forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(1), 176–184. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IJFORECAST.2014.03.009
8. Baskak, T. E. (2023). Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde sektörel istihdam oranları ile büyüme ilişkisi. İzmir Journal of Economics, 38(4), 908–929. https://doi.org/10.24988/IJE.1193779

9. Beşoluk, E. (2022). Küreselleşme, uluslararası ticaret ve çalışma standartları. Türk Metal Sendikası Araştırma ve Eğitim Merkezi Yayınları – 81.
10. Beşoluk, E., & Keskin, A. (2023). Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicileri: Hacker ve Hatemi-J nedensellik analizi. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(1), 266-284. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/joeep/issue/76081/1299661
11. Bilgin, M. H., & Danis, H. (2005). The relationship between employment and real exchange rate: The case of Turkish apparel industry. International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER), 4(11), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.19030/IBER.V4I11.3632
12. Bonga-Bonga, L., & Biyase, M. (2019). The impact of the Chinese textile imports on employment and value added in the textile industry of the south African economy. Global Economy Journal, 19(02). https://doi.org/10.1142/S2194565919500088
13. Branson, W., & Love, J. (1988). The real exchange rate, employment, and output in manufacturing in the U.S. and Japan. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 2491. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2491
14. Broecke, S., Forti, A., & Vandeweyer, M. (2017). The effect of minimum wages on employment in emerging economies: A survey and meta-analysis. Oxford Development Studies, 45(3), 366–391. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2017.1279134
15. Doğrul, H. G., & Soytas, U. (2010). Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment: Evidence from an emerging market. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1523–1528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.09.005
16. Feenstra, R. C., Ma, H., & Xu, Y. (2019). US exports and employment. Journal of International Economics, 120, 46–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.05.002
17. Filiztekin, A. (2005). Exchange rates and employment in Turkish manufacturing. Working Paper, Sabanci University International Finance 0501004. https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpif/0501004.html
18. Folawewo, A. O., & Adeboje, O. M. (2017). Macroeconomic determinants of unemployment: Empirical evidence from Economic Community of West African States. African Development Review, 29(2), 197–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12250
19. Fousekis, P., Katrakilidis, C., & Trachanas, E. (2016). Vertical price transmission in the US beef sector: Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model. Economic Modelling, 52, 499–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.09.030
20. Güdenoğlu, E. (2021). Petrol fiyatlarının istihdam üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri: Türkiye örneğinde NARDL yaklaşımı bulguları. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2), 381–400. https://doi.org/10.17153/OGUIIBF.885601
21. Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: Theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489–1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
22. Huang, H., Pang, K., & Tang, Y. (2014). Effects of exchange rates on employment in Canada. Canadian Public Policy, 40(4), 339–352. https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2013-033
23. ILO. (2023). SDG indicator 9.2.2 - Manufacturing employment as a proportion of total employment (%) – annual. https://rshiny.ilo.org/dataexplorer24/?lang=en&id=SDG_0922_NOC_RT_A (Date of access: February 2024)
24. Javed, S. A., & Suleri, A. Q. (2019). Manufacturing sector and job creation in Pakistan. In Chaturvedi S., & Saha, S. (Ed.), Manufacturing South Asia. (pp. 153–170). New Delhi: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8381-5_6
25. Karaca, Z. (2021). Bölgesel imalat sanayi göstergelerinin istihdama etkisi: Bir logit model uygulaması. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12(23), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2021.001
26. Kartal, G. (2024). Türkiye’de Phillips eğrisinin geçerliliği: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalara dayalı ampirik bulgular. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 39(1), 114–138. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1302596
27. Keane, M. P., & Prasad, E. S. (1996). The employment and wage effects of oil price changes: A sectoral analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(3), 389–400. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109786
28. Kien, T. N., & Heo, Y. (2009) Impacts of trade liberalization on employment in Vietnam: A system generalized method of moments estimation. The Developing Economies, 47(1), 81–103. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2009.00077.x
29. Kolcu, F., & Yamak, N. (2022). Türkiye’de işsizlik ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Journal of Yaşar University, 17(65), 134–148. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.931206
30. Kong, Q., Peng, D., Ni, Y., Jiang, X., & Wang, Z. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth quality of China: Empirical analysis using ARDL model. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101488. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101488
31. Köse, T., & Avci, M. (2023). İstihdam, reel ücret ve emek verimliliği: Türkiye imalat sektörü üzerine bir araştırma. Verimlilik Dergisi, 57(2), 313–326. https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1197943
32. Krulický, T., Šanderová, V., & Dolejš, D. (2022). Evaluation of inflation and unemployment and plotting the Philips curve of The Czech Republic. SHS Web of Conferences, 132, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202213201007
33. Loungani, P. (1986). Oil price shocks and the dispersion hypothesis. The review of economics and statistics, 68(3), 536–539. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926035
34. Maduku, H., & Kaseeram, I. (2018). Inflation targeting monetary policy and unemployment in South Africa. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 10(4(J)), 88–96. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v10i4(J).2410
35. Mıhcı, S., & Atılgan, E. (2010). İşsizlik ve büyüme: Türkiye ekonomisi için Okun katsayıları. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 25(296), 33– 54. https://doi.org/10.3848/iif.2010.296.2803
36. Moroke, N., Leballo, G. P., & Mello, D. M. (2014). An empirical robustness of Okun’s Law in South Africa: An error correction modelling approach. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(23), 435–443. https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n23p435
37. Muscatelli V. A., & Tirelli P. (2001). Unemployment and growth: Some empirical evidence from structural time series models. Applied Economics, 33(8), 1083–1088. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840010003276
38. Ordóñez, J., Monfort, M., & Cuestas, J. C. (2019) Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain. Energy, 181, 625–634. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENERGY.2019.05.209
39. Özer, M. (2022). Ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişki: Kesirli frekanslı Fourier ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Istanbul Journal of Economics, 72(1), 269–292. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1020006
40. Özer, M. O. (2020). Türkiye’de enflasyon ve işsizlik oranlari arasindaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin analizi: Phillips eğrisine fourier yaklaşımı. Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, (39), 179–192. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.560093
41. Palombi, S., Perman, R., & Tavéra, C. (2017). Commuting effects in Okun’s Law among British Areas: Evidence from spatial panel econometrics. Papers in Regional Science, 96(1), 191–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/PIRS.12166
42. Paun, C. V., Nechita, R., Patruti, A., & Topan, M. V. (2021). The impact of the minimum wage on employment: An EU panel data analysis. Sustainability, 13(16), 9359. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13169359
43. Pehlivanoğlu F., & Tanga M. (2016). An analysis on the validity of Okun’s Law: Case of Turkey and BRICS. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2(3), 34–44.
44. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
45. Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in The United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica, 25(100), 283–299. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550759
46. Polat, O., Uslu, E. E., & Aydemir, C. (2011). İmalat sanayinde dış ticaret ve istihdamın panel veri analizi. Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(3), 161–171.
47. Qin, Y. (2020). The relationship between unemployment and inflation--evidence from U.S. economy. Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Economic and Business Management (FEBM 2020). https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.201211.029
48. Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Industry and Technology. (2022). Tekstil, hazırgiyim, deri ve deri ürünleri sektörel raporu 2021. https://www.sanayi.gov.tr/plan-program-raporlar-ve-yayinlar/sektor-raporlari/mu2812011411 (Date of access: January 2024)
49. Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Industry and Technology. (2023). Türkiye İmalat sanayiinin yapısal analizi 2015-2020 dönemi. https://www.sanayi.gov.tr/plan-program-raporlar-ve-yayinlar/suresiz-yayinlar/cr1304011103 (Date of access: January 2024)
50. Roy, G., & Sharma, S. (2021). Measuring the role of factors on website effectiveness using vector autoregressive model. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 62, 102656. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JRETCONSER.2021.102656
51. Sadiku, M., Ibraimi, A., & Sadiku, L. (2015). Econometric estimation of the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth of FYR of Macedonia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 69–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00009-X
52. Timur C., & Doğan Z. (2015). İstihdam yaratmayan büyüme: Türkiye örneği. Ardahan Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 1(2), 231–247.
53. Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
54. Tumanoska, D. (2020). The relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates: Validation of Okun’s Law in panel context. Research in Applied Economics, 12(1), 33–55. https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v12i1.16665
55. TurkStat (2023). Employment, unemployment and wages, labour force statistics. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=72&locale=tr. (Date of access: February 2024)
56. Whang, U. (2019). Exports and job creation in South Korea: Industry-level analysis. Journal of Korea Trade, 23(1), 2–18. https://doi.org/10.1108/JKT-05-2018-0042
57. World Bank. (2023a). Manufacturing, value added (current US$) | data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.CD?end=2021&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=1960&view=chart (Date of access: February 2024)
58. World Bank. (2023b). Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)| Data. World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.ZS?end=2021&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=2004 (Date of access: February 2024)
59. Yang, C. (2016). Relocating labour-intensive manufacturing firms from China to Southeast Asia: A preliminary investigation. Bandung: Journal of the Global South, 3(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40728-016-0031-4
60. Yenigün, B., & Azazi, H. (2022). Döviz kurundaki değişikliklerin imalat sanayi istihdamı üzerine etkisi: Türkiye için ampirik bir uygulama. TroyAcademy, 7(3), 426–454. https://doi.org/10.31454/troyacademy.1166349
61. Yılancı, V., & Kırca, M. (2024). Testing the relationship between employment and tourism: A fresh evidence from the ARDL bounds test with sharp and smooth breaks. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, 7(1), 394–413. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHTI-10-2022-0509
62. Yildirim, S., & Sari, S. (2021). Türkiye ekonomisinde Phillips eğrisinin geçerliliğinin analizi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(3), 2206–2226. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.874917
63. Yıldırım, S. (2020). Türkiye’de işsizlik ve enflasyon ilişkisi teori – tarihsel gelişim – analiz. Seçkin Yayıncılık.
64. Yu, M. (2022). China’s miracle in foreign trade. Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6030-6