Economic Determinants of Inflation Rate: An Analysis for Türkiye

Öz

The issue of high inflation in the Turkish economy has become chronic, and the dynamics affecting inflation have been a major topic of debate in recent years among economic decision-makers, market participants, and academic studies, all in the pursuit of achieving price stability. Heterodox monetary policies, aimed at controlling prices, have occasionally been implemented to address the inflation problem. However, especially after the 2023 general elections, orthodox policies have been pursued in the fight against inflation, with the importance of interest rates and exchange rates being highlighted once again through their outcomes. This study aims to empirically analyze the effects of real interest rates, exchange rates, and the Consumer Tendency Survey conducted in cooperation with the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), which measures household inflation expectations for the next 12 months, and Brent crude oil prices on price stability in the Turkish economy, and to uncover the relationship between these variables in both the long and current terms. According to the findings of the study, when examining the long-term and current-period trends of the variables on inflation, the exchange rate, which has worsened, has the greatest impact. At the same time, a significant relationship was found between both periods' inflation and the movements in Brent oil prices and real interest rates. Regarding household inflation expectations, no significant relationship was found with current-period inflation, but a meaningful and positive coefficient was detected in the long term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Brent Oil
• Exchange Rate
• Inflation
• Inflation Expectations
• Real Interest Rate

Enflasyon Oranının Ekonomik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye İçin Bir Analiz

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisinde yüksek enflasyon sorunsalı kronikleşmiş olup fiyat istikrarı hedefi doğrultusunda enflasyon üzerindeki dinamikler son yıllarda hem ekonomik karar alıcılarda hem piyasa katılımcılarında hem de akademik çalışmalarda büyük tartışma konusu olmuştur. Ana amacı fiyatları kontrol altında tutmak olan heterodoks para politikaları zaman zaman yürütülüp enflasyon sorunsalı çözümlenmeye çalışılsa da özellikle 2023 genel seçim sonrası enflasyonla mücadelede ortodoks politikalar güdülmüş olup faiz ve döviz kuru değişkeninin önemi çıktılarıyla bir kez daha vurgulanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde fiyat istikrarının sağlanmasında reel faizin, döviz kurunun, TCMB ve TÜİK işbirliğiyle yürütülen Tüketici Eğilimi Anketi ile bulgulanan hanehalkı 12 ay sonrası yıllık enflasyon beklentisinin ve brent petrol fiyatının etkisini ampirik olarak analiz ederek uzun dönem ve cari dönem ilişkisini ortaya çıkarmaktır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre değişkenlerin enflasyon üzerinde uzun dönem ve cari dönem seyri incelendiğinde en büyük etkiye sahip olan bozulan döviz kuru değişkeni iken her iki dönemde de brent petrol fiyatındaki seyir ve reel faiz değişkenleri ile enflasyon arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Hanehalkı enflasyon beklentisinde ise cari dönem enflasyon üzerinde anlamlı bir ilişki saptanmazken uzun vadede anlamlı ve pozitif bir katsayı bulgulanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon
• Döviz Kuru
• Enflasyon Beklentileri
• Reel Faiz
• Brent Petrol

Kaynakça

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