Navigating New Economic Frontiers: China-led Trade Agreements, US-China Trade Wars, and the Impact of Trump-Era Tariff Policies

Öz

In recent years, the global economic focus has shifted toward the Asia-Pacific, mainly due to China’s growing influence in trade and investment frameworks such as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). China aims to reshape global trade norms and strengthen its leadership role. Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations deteriorated, especially during the Trump administration, which imposed tariffs and embraced protectionism, disrupting supply chains and trade stability. In contrast, China expanded partnerships through initiatives like the Belt and Road and bilateral agreements, reducing its dependence on the U.S. This paper explores the evolving dynamic between China’s strategic rise and America’s defensive trade stance, using updated tariff data to assess the long-term economic and geopolitical impacts on global trade structures.Whereas the U.S. turned internal, China reacted by quickening its outreach to other exchange accomplices and solidifying its financial ties over Asia and past. Activities such as the Belt and Street Activity (BRI) and extended reciprocal exchange understandings have permitted China to expand its financial conditions and relieve the affect of U.S. exchange confinements. This paper investigates the energetic transaction between China’s key development and the Joined together States’ progressively cautious exchange pose. It too analyzes the broader financial and geopolitical suggestions of this move, drawing on overhauled tax plans and exchange stream information from the post-Trump period to evaluate how these improvements may reshape the longer term of worldwide exchange.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trade Wars
• Tariff Policies
• Belt and Road Initiative
• International Trade

Ekonomideki Yeni Aşılan Sınırlar: Çin Liderliğindeki Ticaret Anlaşmaları, ABD-Çin Ticaret Savaşları ve Trump Dönemi Gümrük Politikalarının Etkisi

Öz

Son yıllarda küresel ekonomik odak, özellikle Bölgesel Kapsamlı Ekonomik Ortaklık (RCEP) ve Kapsamlı Yatırım Anlaşması (CAI) gibi ticaret ve yatırım çerçevelerindeki Çin’in artan etkisi nedeniyle Asya-Pasifik bölgesine kaymıştır. Çin, küresel ticaret normlarını yeniden şekillendirmeyi ve liderlik rolünü güçlendirmeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu sırada, ABD-Çin ilişkileri özellikle Trump yönetimi döneminde gümrük tarifeleri ve korumacı politikaların benimsenmesiyle kötüleşmiş, tedarik zincirlerini ve ticaret istikrarını bozmuştur. Buna karşılık, Çin Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi ile ikili anlaşmalar gibi girişimlerle ortaklıklarını genişleterek ABD’ye olan bağımlılığını azaltmıştır. Bu çalışma, Çin’in stratejik yükselişi ile Amerika’nın savunmacı ticaret yaklaşımı arasındaki değişen dinamiği incelemekte ve güncel tarife verilerini kullanarak küresel ticaret yapıları üzerindeki uzun vadeli ekonomik ve jeopolitik etkileri değerlendirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticaret Savaşları
• Gümrük Tarifesi Politikaları
• Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi
• Uluslararası Ticaret

Kaynakça

1. Belt and Road Initiative official portal. (2021). Retrieved from https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn
2. Bown, C. P. (2021). The US-China Trade War and Phase One Agreement. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
3. Bown, C. P. (2024). The Persistent Impact of the Phase One Agreement. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
4. Congressional Research Service. (2020). U.S.-China Trade Issues. CRS Publications.
5. Congressional Research Service. (2024). Updated Report on U.S.-China Trade Relations. CRS Publications.
6. European Commission. (2020). Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between the European Union and China. European Commission Documents.
7. Holland, M., & Cedric, S. (2019). Global Supply Chains and Trade Wars: Emerging Shifts and Future Strategies. Journal of International Economics.
8. Hsu, T. (2021). Biden’s China Policy: Competition and Confrontation. The New York Times.

9. International Monetary Fund. (2020). World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent. IMF Publications.
10. Jacques, M. (2009). When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. Penguin Press.
11. Moon, M. (2019). Trump Administration Bans Huawei from U.S. Markets. CNN Business.
12. Murat, Ö., & Ekinci Furtana, T. (2021). The Era of International Trade Agreements Led by China: RCEP and CAI. Eurasian Files.
13. OECD. (2018). China's Belt and Road Initiative in the Global Trade System. OECD Publications.
14. Petri, P. A., & Plummer, M. G. (2020). East Asia Decouples from the United States: Trade War, COVID-19, and East Asia's New Trade Blocs. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
15. PLOS ONE. (2024). RCEP’s Impact on Regional Industrial and Innovation Networks. PLOS ONE Journal.
16. ScienceDirect. (2024). Global Strategic Responses to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. ScienceDirect Publications.
17. Swanson, A. (2018). Trump’s Trade War with China Is Officially Underway—The New York Times.
18. Tang, F. (2019). China’s "Made in China 2025" Strategy: Progress and Challenges. China Economic Review.
19. U.S. Census Bureau. (2021). U.S. Trade in Goods with China.
20. Wong, D., & Koty, A. C. (2020). The US-China Trade War: A Timeline. China Briefing.
21. World Bank. (2021). Global Economic Prospects. World Bank Group.
22. World Trade Organisation. (2021). WTO Annual Report. WTO Publications.