Corporate Investment Behavior: Uncertainty and Governance

Öz

This study examines the impact of uncertainty on corporate investment behavior and the role of governance quality in this relationship with a panel dataset consisting of 158 firms operating mainly in the manufacturing sector on Istanbul Stock Exchange in Türkiye in the 2000–2023 period. Based on the assumption that firm-level investment decisions cannot be evaluated independently of macroeconomic conditions such as uncertainty, the study considers the impact of uncertainty on investments together with a governance perspective. Empirical findings reveal that uncertainty significantly suppresses corporate investments. This is consistent with the "wait-and-see" behavior, which reflects the tendency of firms to postpone investment expenditures in the face of unfavorable economic conditions. Findings on governance quality indicate that good governance within the framework of certain model specifications can alleviate the negative impact of uncertainty. However, it has been found that this mitigating role is heterogeneous between different dimensions of governance, and a similar effect has not been observed, especially in indicator such as voice and accountability. The study also offers important implications for policy makers by revealing how investment decisions are shaped in times of macroeconomic instability and the role that governance quality can play in this process.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uncertainty
• Corporate Investment
• Good Governance

Kurumsal Yatırım Davranışı: Belirsizlik ve Yönetişim

Öz

Bu çalışma, belirsizlik ortamının kurumsal yatırım davranışları üzerindeki etkisini ve yönetişim kalitesinin bu ilişkideki rolünü, 2000–2023 döneminde Türkiye’de Borsa İstanbul’da ağırlıklı olarak imalat sektöründe faaliyet gösteren 158 firmadan oluşan panel veri setiyle incelemektedir. Firma düzeyindeki yatırım kararlarının belirsizlik gibi makroekonomik koşullardan bağımsız değerlendirilemeyeceği varsayımından hareketle çalışma, belirsizliğin yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisini yönetişim perspektifiyle birlikte ele almaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, belirsizliğin kurumsal yatırımları anlamlı biçimde baskıladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durum, firmaların elverişsiz ekonomik koşullar karşısında yatırım harcamalarını erteleme eğilimini yansıtan "bekle-gör" davranışıyla tutarlılık göstermektedir. Yönetişim kalitesine ilişkin bulgular ise belirli model spesifikasyonları çerçevesinde iyi yönetişimin belirsizliğin olumsuz etkisini hafifletebildiğine işaret etmektedir. Bununla birlikte, bu hafifletici rolün yönetişimin farklı boyutları arasında heterojenlik gösterdiği ve özellikle ses ve hesap verebilirlik göstergesinde benzer bir etkinin gözlemlenmediği saptanmıştır. Çalışma aynı zamanda politika yapıcılara yönelik önemli çıkarımlar sunmakta; makroekonomik istikrarsızlık dönemlerinde yatırım kararlarının nasıl şekillendiğini ve bu süreçte yönetişim kalitenin üstlenebileceği rolü gözler önüne sermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Belirsizlik
• Kurumsal Yatırım
• İyi Yönetişim

Kaynakça

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