Türkiye–Mısır Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmasına Yeniden Bakış: Yapısal Dönüşüm ve Güncel Dinamikler

Öz

Bu çalışma, sektör dinamikleri, karşılaştırmalı imalat performansı ve üretim bağlantılarının coğrafi yeniden yapılanması odağında Türkiye–Mısır ticari ilişkilerinin STA sonrası seyrini kapsamlı bir şekilde incelemektedir. Herfindahl–Hirschman İndeksi ve varyasyon katsayısı gibi ölçütlerden yararlanan analiz, 2007 yılında ağırlıklı olarak düşük katma değerli mallardan oluşan ticari yapının zaman içinde belirgin biçimde değiştiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye’nin ihracat profili, sermaye ve teknoloji yoğun mallarda artan uzmanlaşma ile birlikte önemli ölçüde çeşitlenmiştir. Buna karşılık, Mısır'dan yapılan ithalat başta enerji ve değerli metaller olmak üzere, daha yakın dönemde ise demir-çelik ve hazır giyim gibi belirli ürün gruplarının etkisiyle daha yoğunlaşmış ve oynak bir hâl almış; bu durum 2023 itibarıyla ticaret açığıyla sonuçlanmıştır. Söz konusu açığın konjonktürel bir dalgalanma olup olmadığı henüz saklı kalmakla birlikte, elde edilen bulgular sektörel entegrasyon dinamikleri, yatırım akımları ve Pan-Avrupa-Akdeniz menşe kümülasyonu çerçevesinde değerlendirildiğinde, ikili ilişkilerin geleneksel mal ticaretine ek olarak daha geniş bir ekonomik etkileşim alanına yöneldiğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye–Mısır Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması
• Herfindahl–Hirschman Endeksi
• Değişim Katsayısı
• Pan-Avrupa-Akdeniz menşe kümülasyonu

The Türkiye–Egypt Free Trade Agreement Revisited: Reconfiguration and Recent Dynamics

Öz

Focusing on sectoral dynamics, comparative manufacturing performance, and the geographical relocation of production linkages, this study examines the evolution of Türkiye–Egypt trade relations in the post-FTA period. Drawing on the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and the coefficient of variation, the analysis reveals that the trade structure, initially dominated by low-value-added goods, has undergone a distinct compositional realignment over time. Türkiye’s export profile has significantly diversified, with an increasing specialization in capital- and technology-intensive goods. In contrast, imports from Egypt have become more concentrated and volatile, driven by specific product groups—primarily energy and precious metals, and more recently, iron-steel and ready-made garments—culminating in a trade deficit by 2023. While it remains uncertain whether the observed deficit reflects a temporary cyclical fluctuation, the findings, when interpreted in the context of sectoral integration dynamics, investment flows, and Pan-Euro-Mediterranean diagonal cumulation of origin, suggest that bilateral relations extend beyond traditional merchandise trade to a broader sphere of economic interaction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye-Egypt FTA
• HHI Index & Coefficient Variation
• Pan-Euro-Med cumulation system

Kaynakça

1. Adly, A. (2021, October 19). How Egypt and Turkey trade amid tensions. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2021/10/how-egypt-and-turkey-trade-amid-tensions
2. A News. (2026, February 4). President Erdogan: Turkiye seeks to expand investment, trade with Egypt to boost regional stability. Retrieved from https://www.anews.com.tr/turkey/2026/02/04/president-erdogan-turkiye-seeks-to-expand-investment-trade-with-egypt-to-boost-regional-stability
3. Baldwin, R. (1993). A domino theory of regionalism (NBER Working Paper No. 4465). National Bureau of Economic Research.
4. Bhagwati, J. (2008). Termites in the trading system: How preferential agreements undermine free trade. Oxford University Press.
5. Council of the European Union. (2024). Council decision (EU) 2024/390 of 15 January 2024 on the position to be taken on behalf of the European Union within the Association Council set up by the Euro-Mediterranean Agreement. Official Journal of the European Union. Retrieved from https://data.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/390/oj
6. Egypt State Information Service. (2025). 2025 year-ender: Made in Egypt. Retrieved from https://sis.gov.eg/en/media-center/files/2025-yearender-made-in-egypt/
7. EnterpriseAM. (2025, September 7). Turkish companies invested around USD 500 mn in Egypt in 2025. Retrieved from https://enterpriseam.com/egypt/inside_industry/turkish-companies-invested-around-usd-500-mn-in-egypt-in-2025/
8. Erkekoğlu, H., & Koçer, E. (2022). Türkiye ile Mısır serbest ticaret anlaşmasının Türkiye’nin dış ticaretine etkileri: İhracatta uzmanlaşma (ES) endeksi uygulaması. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2), 938–950. doi:10.11616/asbi.1103587

9. Ethier, W. J. (1998). The new regionalism. The Economic Journal, 108(449), 1149–1161. doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00335
10. European Commission. (n.d.). Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union. Retrieved from https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/pan-euro-mediterranean-convention-pem
11. European Commission. (2024). The Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention on preferential rules of origin. Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union.
12. Freund, C. (2000). Multilateralism and the endogenous formation of preferential trade agreements. Journal of International Economics, 52(2), 359–376.
13. General Authority for Investment and Free Zones. (n.d.). Trade agreements. Government of Egypt. https://www.gafi.gov.eg/English/Sectors/Pages/Trade-Agreements.aspx
14. Helmy, O., Aboushady, N., & Zaki, C. (2018). The impact of Egypt–EU free trade agreement on Egypt’s manufacturing exports and employment. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
15. Hirschman, A. O. (1964). The paternity of an index. The American Economic Review, 54(5), 761–762.
16. Hoekman, B. M., & Kostecki, M. M. (2009). The political economy of the world trading system: The WTO and beyond (3rd ed.). Oxford University Press.
17. International Monetary Fund. (2021). Egypt: History of lending commitments. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/extarr2.aspx?memberKey1=275&date1key=2021-02-28
18. International Trade Centre. (2025). Trade Map: Trade statistics for international business development. Retrieved April 5, 2026, from https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProductCountry.aspx
19. Kamal, A. (2017). Potential impacts of Mercosur–Egypt free trade agreement. Business and Economic Research, 7(2), 282–298. doi:10.5296/ber.v7i2.11935
20. Kheir-El-Din, H., Fawzy, S., & El-Khawaga, L. (1999). The Egyptian-Turkish free trade area agreement: What are the expected benefits? (ECES Working Paper No. 39). Egyptian Center for Economic Studies.
21. Lawrence, R. Z. (1996). Regionalism, multilateralism, and deeper integration. Brookings Institution Press.
22. Parra Robles, M. D., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Suárez-Burguet, C. (2012). The impact of FTAs on MENA trade (IAI Discussion Papers No. 217). Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research, University of Göttingen. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/57337
23. Snedecor, G. W., & Cochran, W. G. (1989). Statistical methods (8th ed.). Iowa State University Press.
24. Sözbir, M. (2023). The effect of Turkey's free trade agreements (FTAs) on its external trade: Counterfactual impact analysis. Fiscaoeconomia, 7(2), 1474–1485. doi:10.25295/fsecon. 1236474
25. State Information Service. (2025). 2025 year-ender: Made in Egypt. Retrieved from https://sis.gov.eg/en/media-center/files/2025-yearender-made-in-egypt/
26. Turkish Ministry of Trade. (n.d.). Free trade agreements in force. Retrieved from https://ticaret.gov.tr/dis-iliskiler/serbest-ticaret-anlasmalari/yururlukte-bulunan-stalar
27. Turkish Ministry of Trade. (2026). Turkey–Egypt free trade agreement. Retrieved from https://www.trade.gov.tr/free-trade-agreements/egypt
28. Turkish Statistical Institute. (2026). International trade in goods statistics. Retrieved April 1, 2026, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr
29. Türkiye Today. (2025, June 26). Turkish textile industry in deep crisis as Egypt shines as inevitable choice for producers. Retrieved from https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkish-textile-industry-in-deep-crisis-as-egypt-shines-as-inevitable-choice-for-prod-3203477
30. United Nations Industrial Development Organization. (2025). Indices of industrial production (IIP) database. Retrieved April 1, 2026, from https://stat.unido.org/data/table?dataset=iip&country=818
31. World Trade Organization. (2011). World trade report 2011: The WTO and preferential trade agreements—From co-existence to coherence. Retrieved from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/anrep_e/wtr11-2b_e.pdf
32. World Trade Organization. (2026). Regional trade agreements. Retrieved from https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm#facts
33. WorldTradeLaw.net. (n.d.). Egypt–Turkey FTA summary. Retrieved from https://worldtradelaw.net/document.php?id=fta/agreements/EgyptTur_Sum.pdf&mode=download