The Effect of Defense Expenditures on Public Investment: An Econometric Application for Türkiye

Öz

Using annual datasets 1976-2024 this study examines the impact of military expenditures on public investments in Türkiye through Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework. Gross fixed capital formation serves as the dependent variable and defense expenditures, economic growth, inflation and unemployment are included independent variables. Long-run relationship among cost variables used for econometric analysis has been examined using ARDL Bounds test. The long-run estimates indicate that economic growth, inflation rate and unemployment positively influence the optimal level of public investments. The Error Correction Model (ECM) is able to predict short-run dynamics from the underlying data, therefore in this case it presents a negative and significant (at 1%) error correction term meaning that deviations in the short-run will converge back towards long-run. Findings are demonstrating that defense spending and public investments in Türkiye are multidimensional their correlation will need to be iterated precisely like data at a macroeconomic level.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• public Investments
• ARDL
• Economic Growth
• Inflation

Savunma Harcamalarının Kamu Yatırımları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1976-2024 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye’de askeri harcamaların kamu yatırımları üzerindeki etkisini Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı çerçevesinde incelemektedir. Gayri safi sabit sermaye oluşumu bağımlı değişken olarak tanımlanmış; savunma harcamaları, ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranı ise bağımsız değişkenler olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Ekonometrik analiz kapsamında değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ARDL sınır testi ile incelenmiş ve değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönem tahmin sonuçları, ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranının kamu yatırımları üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Kısa dönem dinamiklerini yansıtan hata düzeltme modeli (ECM) sonuçlarına göre, hata düzeltme terimi negatif ve %1 düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Bu durum, kısa dönem sapmaların zaman içinde düzeltilerek sistemin uzun dönem dengeye geri döndüğünü göstermektedir. Bulgular Türkiye’de savunma harcamaları ile kamu yatırımları arasındaki ilişkinin çok boyutlu bir yapıya sahip olduğunu ve bu ilişkinin makroekonomik çerçevede dikkatli bir şekilde değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kamu Yatırımları
• ARDL Modeli
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Enflasyon

Kaynakça

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