MENA Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Kompleksitenin Belirleyicileri

Öz

Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) ülkeleri, ekonomik kompleksite açısından gelişmekte olan ekonomilerin çoğunun gerisinde kalmaktadır. Bu çalışma, 1970-2015 döneminde MENA bölgesi ülkelerinde ekonomik kompleksitenin belirleyicilerini sistem GMM yaklaşımı kullanarak araştırarak literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Bulgular, beşeri sermayenin ekonomik kompleksite ile pozitif olarak ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak, doğal kaynak rantının ekonomik kompleksite üzerinde olumsuz bir etkisi vardır. Bu da bu ülke grubu için Hollanda hastalığının varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Sonuçlar ayrıca, doğal kaynak rantlarının ekonomik kompleksite üzerindeki etkisinin beşeri sermaye birikimine bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Kompleksite
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• MENA
• Sistem GMM

Determinants of Economic Complexity in MENA Countries

Öz

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries lag behind most of the emerging economies in terms of economic complexity. This study contributes to the literature by exploring the determinants of economic complexity in the MENA region for the period between 1970-2015 by employing a system GMM approach. The findings reveal that human capital is positively associated with economic complexity. However, natural resource rent has a negative influence on economic complexity, supporting the existence of Dutch disease for this country group. The results also indicate that the effect of natural resource rents on economic complexity depends on the accumulation of human capital

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic complexity
• Economic growth
• MENA
• System GMM

Kaynakça

1. Abed G. T., & Davoodi, H. R. (2003). Challenges of growth and globalization in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
2. Agosin, M., R. Alvarez, R., & C. Baravo-Ortega (2011). Determinants of export diversification around the world: 1962-2000. The World Economy, 35(3), 295-315.
3. Alaya, M. (2012). The determinants of MENA export diversification: An emprical analysis. ERF Working Paper Series.
4. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 58(2), 277-97.
5. Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
6. Argimon, I., González-Páramo, J. M., Roldan J. M. (1997). Evidence of public spending crowding-out from a panel of OECD countries. Journal of Applied Economics, 29(8), 1001-1010.
7. Barro, R. & Lee, J-W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010. Journal of Development Economics, 104, 184-198.
8. Bayraktar-Sağlam, B. (2016). The stages of human capital and economic growth: Does the direction of causality matter for the rich and the poor?. Social Indicators Research, 127, 243-302.

9. Bebczuk, R., & Berrettoni, D. (2006). Explaining export diversification: An empirical analysis. CAF Research Program on Development Issues, Department of Economics, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
10. Bond, S., Hoeffler, A., & Temple, J. (2001). GMM Estimation of empirical growth models. Centre for Economics Policy Research, 3048.
11. Brambilla, I. (2009). Multinationals, technology, and the introduction of varieties of goods. Journal of International Economics, 79(1), 89–101.
12. Camargo, J. S. M. & Gala, P. (2017). The resource curse reloaded: revisiting the Dutch disease with economic complexity analysis. (Erişim: 13.01.2020). https://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/handle/10438/18037.
13. Costinot, A. (2009). On the origins of comparative advantage. Journal of International Economics, 77(2), 255–264.
14. Elhiraika, A. B. & Mbate, M. (2014). Assessing the determinants of export diversification in Africa. Journal of Applied Econometrics and International Development, 14(1), 147-162.
15. Esanov, A. (2012). Economic diversification: Dynamics, determinants and policy implications. Revenue Watch Institute, 1–26.
16. Felipe, J., Abdon, A., & Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the middle‐income trap: What is it, who is in it, and why?. Working Paper 715, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.
17. Fortunato, P., & Carlos, R. (2014). Export sophistication, growth and the middle-income trap. In José M. Salazar-Xirinachs, Irmgard Nübler & Richard Kozul-Wright (Ed.), Transforming Economies: Making Industrial Policy Work for Growth, Jobs and Development. Geneva: International Labour Office.
18. Gabrielczak, P., & Serwach, T. (2017). Does the Euro increase the complexity of exported goods? The case of Estonia, Lods Economics Working Papers.
19. Gemmell, N. (1996). Evaluating the impacts of human capital stock and accumulation on economic growth: Some evidence. Oxford Bulletin Economics Statistics 58(1), 9-28.
20. Gourdon, J. (2010). FDI flows and export diversification: Looking at extensive and intensive margins. In: Lopez-C ´ alix, J. R., Walkenhorst, P., & Diop, N. (Ed.), Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa (pp 13–44). World Bank Publications.
21. Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. Cambridge: MIT Press.
22. Güneş, S., & Akın, T. (2019). Yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı: Lider ülkeler ve Türkiye analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 27(40), 11-29. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.01
23. Hartmann, D., Guevara, M., Jara-Figueroa, C., Aristarán, M. & Hidalgo, C. (2017). Linking economic complexity, institutions and income inequality. World Development, 93, 75-93.
24. Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal of Economic Growth, 12, 1-25
25. Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Chung, S., Jimenez, J., Simoes, A., & Yıldırım, M. (2011). The atlas of economic complexity. Puritan Press.
26. Hausmann, R., & Hidalgo, C. (2013). How will the Netherlands earn its income 20 years from now? The hague: WRR, Webpublications, 74.
27. Hausmann, R., Cunningham, B., Matovu, J., Osire, R., & Wyett, K. (2014). How should Uganda grow? Harvard Kennedy School, Faculty Research Working Paper Series, 235.
28. Hidalgo, C., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575.
29. Hvidt, M. (2013). Economic diversification in GCC countries: Past record and future trends. Research Paper, Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States.
30. Imbs, J., & Wacziarg, R. (2003). Stages of diversification. American Economic Review, 93(1), 63-86.
31. IMF (2015). Investment and Capital Stock Database.
32. IMF (2016). Economic diversification in oil‐exporting Arab countries. Manama: Annual Meeting of Arab Ministers of Finance.
33. Iwamoto, M., & Nabeshima, K. (2012). Can FDI promote export diversification and sophistication in host countries? Dynamic panel system GMM analysis. Institute of Developing Economies.
34. Javorcik, B., Lo Turco, A., & Maggioni, D. (2017). New and improved: Does FDI boost production complexity in host countries?. The Economic Journal, 128(614), 2507-2537.
35. Jetter, M., & Hassan, A. R. (2012). The roots of export diversification. Documentos de Trabajo CIEF, 010600, Universidad Eafit.
36. Kabaklarlı, E., Duran, M., & Üçler, Y. (2017). The determinants of high-technology exports: A panel data approach for selected OECD countries. DIEM, 1-13, 888-900.
37. Khan, M. S., & Kumar, M. S. (1997). Public and private investment and the growth process in developing countries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59(1), 69-88.
38. Kılıç, C., Bayar, Y., & Özeki̇ci̇oğlu, H. (2015). Araştırma geliştirme harcamalarının yüksek teknoloji ürün ihracatı üzerindeki etkisi: G-8 ülkeleri için bir panel veri analizi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (44), 115-130. doi:10.18070/euiibfd.62317
39. Krueger A. B., & Lindahl, M. (2001). Education for growth: Why and for whom?. Journal of Economic Literature, 39(4), 1101–1136.
40. Leamer, E., Maul, H., Rodriguez, S., & Schott, P.K. (1999). Does natural resource abundance increase Latin American income inequality?. Journal of Development Economics, 59, 3–42.
41. Loening, J. (2005). Effects of primary, secondary, and tertiary education on economic growth: Evidence from Guatemala. Policy Research Working Paper 3610, Washington DC: World Bank.
42. Longmore, R., Jaupart, P., & Cazorla, M.R. (2014). Toward economic diversification in Trinidad and Tobago. Policy Research Working Paper 6840.
43. Maier, J., & Wood, A. (1998). Africa’s export structure in a comparative perspective. UNCTAD, 4, Geneva: UN.
44. Marshall, M. & Jaggers, K. (2007). POLITY IV PROJECT, Data Set Users Manual, Center for Systemic Peace.
45. Mehlum, H., Moene, K., & Torvik, R. (2006). Institutions and the resource curse. Economic Journal, 116(508), 1-20.
46. Nguyen, C. P., Christophe S., & Su, T. D. (2020). The drivers of economic complexity: International evidence from financial development and patents. International Economics, 164, 140-150. ISSN 2110-7017, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2020.09.004.
47. Ourens, G. (2012). Can the method of reflections help predict future growth?. Documento de Trabajo/FCS-DE; 17/12, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
48. Papageorgiou, C. (2003). Distinguishing between the effects of primary and post-primary education on economic growth. Review of Development Economics, 7(4), 622-635.
49. Pereira, J., & Aubyn, M. St. (2009). What level of education matters most for growth? Evidence from Portugal. Economics of Education Review, 28(1), 67-73.
50. Petrakis, P. E., & Stamakis, D. (2002). Growth and education levels: A comparative analysis. Economics of Education Review, 2, 513-521.
51. Ramirez, M., & Nazmi, D. N. (2003). Public investment and economic growth in Latin America: An empirical test. Review of Development Economics, 7(1), 115-126.
52. Rogmans, T., & Ebbers, H. (2013). The determinants of foreign direct investment in the Middle East North Africa region. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 8(3), 240-257.
53. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technical change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 71-102.
54. Sachs, J. D. & Warner, A. M. (1999). The big push, natural resource booms and growth. Journal of Development Economics, 59(1), 43-76.
55. Sepehrdoust, H., Davarikish, R., & Setarehie, M. (2019). The knowledge-based products and economic complexity in developing countries. Heliyon, (5)12, 2405-8440. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02979.
56. Seyoum, B. (2004). The role of factor conditions in high-technology exports: An empirical examination. The Journal of High Technology Management Research, 15, 145–162.
57. Strauss, J. (2015). Economic challenges in the MENA region in Middle Eastern business environment. Cognella Academic Publishing.
58. Tebaldi, E. (2011). The determinants of high-technology exports: A panel data analysis. Atlantic Economic Journal, 39(4), 343-353.
59. Turnovsky, S. J. (1996). Optimal tax, debt and expenditures policies in growing economy. Journal of Public Economy, 60, 21-44.
60. UNCTAD (2003). World investment report. FDI Policies for Development: National and International Perspectives. New York, NY: United Nations.
61. UNCTAD (2011). United nations conference on trade and development database. URL: www.unctad.org/Templates.
62. Vandenbussche, J., Aghion, P., & Meghir, C. (2006). Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital. Journal of Economic Growth, 11(2), 97-127.
63. World Bank (2020). URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS
64. World Development Indicators (2018). Washington D.C. World Bank.
65. Yildirim, M. (2014). Diversifying growth in light of economic complexity. Brookings Blum Roundtable.
66. Zhu, S., & Li, R. (2017). Economic complexity, human capital and economic growth: Empirical research based on cross-country panel data. Applied Economics, 49(38), 3815-3828.