Araştırma Makalesi
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ABD- Türkiye Emtia Ticareti ve J-Eğrisi Fenomeni: 23 Sektörden Kanıt

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 15 - 23, 30.12.2021

Öz

Bu makale, reel döviz kurunun Türkiye’nin ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkilerini toplam ve dağınık düzeyde incelemektedir. 1989-2017 yılları arasında 23 sektörden oluşan bir veri kümesi analiz edilmiştir. Doğrusal ARDL sonuçları, toplam düzeyde J eğrisi fenomeni belirtisi olmadığını doğrulamaktadır. Bununla birlikte, Ulaştırma, Tekstil ve Giyim ve Maden ve Metal endüstrilerinde dağınık düzeyde doğrusal ARDL sonuçları. J eğrisi fenomeni için destek sağlamaktadır. Ayrıca, Türk lirasındaki değer kaybı, uzun vadede çoğu sektör üzerinde olumlu etkiye sahiptir. Bu sonuçlar politika yapıcılara değer düşürme politikasının bazı ticaret ortaklarına karşı ihracatı artırabileceğini ve yurtiçi çıktıları teşvik edebileceğini vurgulamaktadır. Öte yandan, Türk lirasındaki değer kaybının ticari çıkarlar karşısındaki olumsuz sonuçları dikkatle değerlendirilmelidir.

Kaynakça

  • Akbostanci, E. (2004). Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40(5), 57–73.
  • Ari, A., Cergibozan, R., & Cevik, E. (2019). J-curve in Turkish bilateral trade: A nonlinear approach. The International Trade Journal, 33(1), 31-53.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1991). Is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of LDCs? Economics Letters, 36(4), 403–407.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Alse, J. (1994). Short-run versus long-run effects of devaluation: Error-correction modeling and cointegration. Eastern Economic Journal, 20(4), 453–464.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Brooks, T. (1999). Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners. Review of World Economics, 135(1), 156-165.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Durmaz, N. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and Turkish industry trade with the rest of the world. Economic Change and Restructuring, 49,1–21.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Goswami, G. (2003). A dis-aggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27(1), 102-113.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2009). The J-curve: Indonesia vs. Her Major Trading Partners. Journal of Economic Integration, 24(4), 765-777.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2018). Is There J-Curve Effect in The Industry Trade of Singapore with Malaysia? An Empirical Study. The Singapore Economic Review, 63(3), 567-591.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Hegerty, S. W. (2010). The J-and S-curves: A survey of the recent literature. Journal of Economic Studies, 37(6), 580–596.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Iqbal, J., & Nosheen, M. (2016). Industry trade between Pakistan and the US: Is there evidence of the J-curve? Applied Economics, 48(11), 957–965.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Xu, J. (2013). The J-Curve and Japan–China industry trade. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 11(1), 13-28.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Kutan, A.M. (2009). The J-Curve in the Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe. Applied Economics, 41(20), 2523-2532.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Ratha, A. (2004). The J-curve: A literature review. Applied Economics, 36(13), 1377–1398.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Usman, A., & Ullah, S. (2019). Asymmetric J-curve in the industry trade between Pakistan and United States: evidence from 41 industries. Eurasian Econ Rev. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-019-00137-x
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Wang, Y. (2008). The J-curve: evidence from industry trade between US and China. Applied Economics, 40(21), 2735-2747.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Xu, J., & Saha, S. (2017). Industry trade between the US and Korea and the J-curve effect. New Zealand Economic Papers, 51(1), 1-14.
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283.
  • Brada, J. C., Kutan, A. H., & Zhou, S. (1997). The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Trade: The Turkish Experience. Journal of Development Studies, 33(5), 675–692.
  • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-192.
  • Celik, S., & Kaya, H. (2010). Real Exchange Rates and Bilateral Trade Dynamics of Turkey: Panel Cointegration Approach. Applied Economics Letters, 17 (8),791–795.
  • Davenport, C. (1996). The Weight of the Past: Exploring Lagged Determinants of Political Repression. Political Research Quarterly, 49(2), 377-403.
  • Demirden, T., & Pastine, I. (1995). Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: an alternative approach. Economics Letters, 48(3-4), 373–7.
  • Durmaz, N. (2015). Industry level J-curve in Turkey. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(4), 689-706.
  • Hakkio, C., & Rush, M. (1991). Cointegration: how short is the long run? Journal of International Money and Finance, 10(4), 571-581.
  • Halicioglu, F. (2008a). The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model. Applied Economics, 40 (18), 2423–2429.
  • Halicioglu, F. (2008b). The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(3), 236–243.
  • Himarios, D. (1985). The effects of devaluation on the trade balance: a critical view and re-examination of Miles’s (New Results). Journal of International Money and Finance, 4(4), 553–63.
  • Kale, P. (2001). Turkey’s trade balance in the short and the long run: An error correction modelling and cointegration. The International Trade Journal, 15(1), 27–56.
  • Kremers, J. J. M., Ericsson, N. R., & Dolado, J. J. (1992). The Power of Cointegration Tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), 325-348.
  • Lal, A. K. & Lowinger, T. C. (2002). The J-curve: evidence from East Asia. Journal of Economic Integration, 17(2), 397–415.
  • Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass Through and Devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1973(1), 303-325.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
  • Narayan, P.K., & Narayan, S. (2005). Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework. Economic Modelling, 22(3), 423–438.
  • Nusair, S. A. (2016). The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach. International Review of Applied Economics, 31(1), 1-27.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Rose, A. K., & Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53–58.
  • Yazici, M. (2006). Is the j-curve effect observable in Turkish agricultural sector? Journal of Central European Agriculture, 7(2), 319-322.
  • Yazici, M., & Klasra, M.A. (2010). Import-content of exports and J-curve effect. Applied Economics, 42 (6), 769-776.
  • Yurdakul, F., & Cevher, E. (2015). Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 92-100.

U.S.-Turkey Commodity Trade and J-Curve Phenomenon: Evidence from 23 Industries

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 15 - 23, 30.12.2021

Öz

This paper empirically explores the effects of real exchange rate on Turkey’s balance of trade at aggregate and dis-aggregate level. A dataset of 23 industries is analyzed over 1989-2017. Linear ARDL results confirm that there is no sign of J-curve phenomenon at aggregate level. However, linear ARDL results at dis-aggregate level support for J-curve phenomenon in Transportation, Textiles & Clothing and Ores & Metals industries. Furthermore, Turkish lira depreciation has favorable effect on most of the industries in the long-run. These results highlight to policymakers that depreciation policy could increase the exports against some trade partners and promote the domestic outputs. Whilst, one should carefully assess the adverse consequences of Turkish lira depreciation against trade benefits.

Kaynakça

  • Akbostanci, E. (2004). Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40(5), 57–73.
  • Ari, A., Cergibozan, R., & Cevik, E. (2019). J-curve in Turkish bilateral trade: A nonlinear approach. The International Trade Journal, 33(1), 31-53.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1991). Is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of LDCs? Economics Letters, 36(4), 403–407.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Alse, J. (1994). Short-run versus long-run effects of devaluation: Error-correction modeling and cointegration. Eastern Economic Journal, 20(4), 453–464.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Brooks, T. (1999). Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners. Review of World Economics, 135(1), 156-165.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Durmaz, N. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and Turkish industry trade with the rest of the world. Economic Change and Restructuring, 49,1–21.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Goswami, G. (2003). A dis-aggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27(1), 102-113.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2009). The J-curve: Indonesia vs. Her Major Trading Partners. Journal of Economic Integration, 24(4), 765-777.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2018). Is There J-Curve Effect in The Industry Trade of Singapore with Malaysia? An Empirical Study. The Singapore Economic Review, 63(3), 567-591.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Hegerty, S. W. (2010). The J-and S-curves: A survey of the recent literature. Journal of Economic Studies, 37(6), 580–596.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Iqbal, J., & Nosheen, M. (2016). Industry trade between Pakistan and the US: Is there evidence of the J-curve? Applied Economics, 48(11), 957–965.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Xu, J. (2013). The J-Curve and Japan–China industry trade. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 11(1), 13-28.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Kutan, A.M. (2009). The J-Curve in the Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe. Applied Economics, 41(20), 2523-2532.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Ratha, A. (2004). The J-curve: A literature review. Applied Economics, 36(13), 1377–1398.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Usman, A., & Ullah, S. (2019). Asymmetric J-curve in the industry trade between Pakistan and United States: evidence from 41 industries. Eurasian Econ Rev. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-019-00137-x
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Wang, Y. (2008). The J-curve: evidence from industry trade between US and China. Applied Economics, 40(21), 2735-2747.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Xu, J., & Saha, S. (2017). Industry trade between the US and Korea and the J-curve effect. New Zealand Economic Papers, 51(1), 1-14.
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283.
  • Brada, J. C., Kutan, A. H., & Zhou, S. (1997). The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Trade: The Turkish Experience. Journal of Development Studies, 33(5), 675–692.
  • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-192.
  • Celik, S., & Kaya, H. (2010). Real Exchange Rates and Bilateral Trade Dynamics of Turkey: Panel Cointegration Approach. Applied Economics Letters, 17 (8),791–795.
  • Davenport, C. (1996). The Weight of the Past: Exploring Lagged Determinants of Political Repression. Political Research Quarterly, 49(2), 377-403.
  • Demirden, T., & Pastine, I. (1995). Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: an alternative approach. Economics Letters, 48(3-4), 373–7.
  • Durmaz, N. (2015). Industry level J-curve in Turkey. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(4), 689-706.
  • Hakkio, C., & Rush, M. (1991). Cointegration: how short is the long run? Journal of International Money and Finance, 10(4), 571-581.
  • Halicioglu, F. (2008a). The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model. Applied Economics, 40 (18), 2423–2429.
  • Halicioglu, F. (2008b). The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(3), 236–243.
  • Himarios, D. (1985). The effects of devaluation on the trade balance: a critical view and re-examination of Miles’s (New Results). Journal of International Money and Finance, 4(4), 553–63.
  • Kale, P. (2001). Turkey’s trade balance in the short and the long run: An error correction modelling and cointegration. The International Trade Journal, 15(1), 27–56.
  • Kremers, J. J. M., Ericsson, N. R., & Dolado, J. J. (1992). The Power of Cointegration Tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), 325-348.
  • Lal, A. K. & Lowinger, T. C. (2002). The J-curve: evidence from East Asia. Journal of Economic Integration, 17(2), 397–415.
  • Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass Through and Devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1973(1), 303-325.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
  • Narayan, P.K., & Narayan, S. (2005). Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework. Economic Modelling, 22(3), 423–438.
  • Nusair, S. A. (2016). The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach. International Review of Applied Economics, 31(1), 1-27.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Rose, A. K., & Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53–58.
  • Yazici, M. (2006). Is the j-curve effect observable in Turkish agricultural sector? Journal of Central European Agriculture, 7(2), 319-322.
  • Yazici, M., & Klasra, M.A. (2010). Import-content of exports and J-curve effect. Applied Economics, 42 (6), 769-776.
  • Yurdakul, F., & Cevher, E. (2015). Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 92-100.
Toplam 40 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Imran Ramzan 0000-0003-0012-1657

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Ramzan, I. (2021). U.S.-Turkey Commodity Trade and J-Curve Phenomenon: Evidence from 23 Industries. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 6(2), 15-23.

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