Araştırma Makalesi
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Does Increasing the Inflation Target Have a Positive Effect on Macroeconomic Performance?

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 310 - 318, 30.12.2021

Öz

In this study, the effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance have been analyzed within a political macroeconomic framework. In this context, an appropriate political macroeconomic model has been developed by considering the different effects of raising the inflation target. In addition, the study examines the negative effect of inflation on output that is expressed as the net productivity effect and the effects of net productivity on macroeconomic performance under various states for an increase in the inflation target. According to the findings, it is seen that the effect of raising the inflation target on macroeconomic performance has a negative effect in an environment of high political uncertainty.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoğlu, D., & Egorov, G. & Sonin, K. (2013). A political theory of populism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(2), 771–805.
  • Aisen, A., & Veiga, F., J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29(1), 151-167.
  • Aizenman, J., & Marion, N. (1991). Policy uncertainty, persistence and growth. NBER Working Papers Series, No. 3848, Cambridge, 1-31.
  • Akkutay, E. A. (2019). Enflasyonun Politik Makroekonomik Dinamikleri: Teorik Uygulama. Doktora Tezi, Atılım Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Alesina, A., & Perotti, R., (1994). The political economy of growth: A critical survey of the recent literature. The World Bank Economic Review, 8(3), 351-371.
  • Alesina, A., & Perotti, R., (1996). Income distribution, political instability and investment. European Economic Review, 40(6), 1203-1228.
  • Alesina, A., Tabellini, G., 1987. Rules and discretion with non-coordinated monetary and fiscal policy. Economic Inquiry, 25(4), 619-630.
  • Asteriou, D., & Price, S., (2001). Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4), 383-399.
  • Ball, L. (2013). The case for four percent inflation. Central Bank Review 13(2), 17-31.
  • Ball, L. M. & Loungani, M. P. (2014). The case for long run inflation target for four percent, IMF Working Paper, WP/14/92.
  • Barro, R., (1995). Inflation and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 5326, 1-22.
  • Becker, I. D., & Gordon, R. (2005). Where Did the Productivity Growth Go? Inflation Dynamics and the Distribution of Income. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 67-150.
  • Blanchard, O., Arricia, G., Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking macroeconomic policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42(6), 199-215.
  • Buck, A. J., & Fitzroy, F. (1988). Inflation and Productivity Growth in the Federal Republic of Germany, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 10(3), 428-444.
  • Burno, M., & Easterly, W. (1996). Inflation and Growth: In Search of a Stable Relationship. Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 78(3), 139-146.
  • Christopoulos, D. K. & Tsionas, E. G., (2005). Productivity growth and Inflation in Europe: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests. Empirical Economics 30, 137-150.
  • De Gregorio J. (1992). The effects of inflation on economic growth: Lessons from Latin America. European Economic Review, 36, 417–425.
  • Dorich, J., Nicholas, L., Vadym, L. & Rhys R. M. (2018). Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability? Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper No.2018-17.
  • Edwards, S. (1994). The political economy of inflation and stabilization in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 42(2), 235-266.
  • Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 485-512.
  • Freeman, D.G., & Yerger, D. B. (2000). Does Inflation Lower Productivity? Time Series Evidence on the Impact of Inflation on Labor Productivity in 12 OECD Nations. Atlantic Economic Journal, 28, 315-332.
  • İsmihan, M., & Metin-Özcan, K., & Tansel, A. (2005). The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: The case of Turkey 1963-1999. Applied Economics 37(2), 239-251.
  • İsmihan, M. (2009). The role of political stability in macroeconomic performance, Germany: VDM Verlag Dr. Müller
  • Krugman, P. (2014). Inflation Targets Reconsidered. (conference presentation). Monetary Policy in a Changing Financial Landscape, European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking: Portugal, 110-122.
  • Lindbeck, A. (1976). Stabilization policy in open economies with endogenous politicians. The American Economic Review, 66(2), 1-19.
  • Narayan, P., & Smyth R. (2009). The effect of inflation and real wages on productivity: new evidence from a panel of G7 countries. Applied Economics 41(10), 1285-1291.
  • Ram, R. (1984). Causal Ordering Across Inflation and Productivity Growth in The Post-War United States. The Review of Economics and Statistic, 66(3), 472-477.
  • Romer, C., & Romer D. (1997). Institutions for Monetary Stability. In: Cristina D. Romer & David H. Romer (Eds.) Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 307-334.
  • Yellen, J. L. (2015): Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy, Speech at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, September 24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Enflasyon Hedefinin Yükseltilmesi Makroekonomik Performansı Olumlu Etkiler Mi?

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 310 - 318, 30.12.2021

Öz

Bu çalışmada enflasyon hedeflemesinin makroekonomik performans üzerine etkileri politik makroekonomik çerçevede incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, enflasyon hedefinin yükseltilmesinin farklı etkileri dikkate alınarak uygun bir politik makroekonomi modeli geliştirilmiştir. Ayrıca enflasyonun çıktı üzerindeki olumsuz etkisi net verimlilik etkisi olarak ifade edilmiş ve net verimlilik etkisinin farklı durumları ele alınarak enflasyonun artırılmasıyla makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri gösterilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, yüksek siyasi belirsizlik ortamında enflasyonun hedefinin yükseltilmesinin makroekonomik performans üzerine etkilerinin olumsuz olduğu görülmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoğlu, D., & Egorov, G. & Sonin, K. (2013). A political theory of populism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(2), 771–805.
  • Aisen, A., & Veiga, F., J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29(1), 151-167.
  • Aizenman, J., & Marion, N. (1991). Policy uncertainty, persistence and growth. NBER Working Papers Series, No. 3848, Cambridge, 1-31.
  • Akkutay, E. A. (2019). Enflasyonun Politik Makroekonomik Dinamikleri: Teorik Uygulama. Doktora Tezi, Atılım Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Alesina, A., & Perotti, R., (1994). The political economy of growth: A critical survey of the recent literature. The World Bank Economic Review, 8(3), 351-371.
  • Alesina, A., & Perotti, R., (1996). Income distribution, political instability and investment. European Economic Review, 40(6), 1203-1228.
  • Alesina, A., Tabellini, G., 1987. Rules and discretion with non-coordinated monetary and fiscal policy. Economic Inquiry, 25(4), 619-630.
  • Asteriou, D., & Price, S., (2001). Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4), 383-399.
  • Ball, L. (2013). The case for four percent inflation. Central Bank Review 13(2), 17-31.
  • Ball, L. M. & Loungani, M. P. (2014). The case for long run inflation target for four percent, IMF Working Paper, WP/14/92.
  • Barro, R., (1995). Inflation and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 5326, 1-22.
  • Becker, I. D., & Gordon, R. (2005). Where Did the Productivity Growth Go? Inflation Dynamics and the Distribution of Income. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 67-150.
  • Blanchard, O., Arricia, G., Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking macroeconomic policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42(6), 199-215.
  • Buck, A. J., & Fitzroy, F. (1988). Inflation and Productivity Growth in the Federal Republic of Germany, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 10(3), 428-444.
  • Burno, M., & Easterly, W. (1996). Inflation and Growth: In Search of a Stable Relationship. Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 78(3), 139-146.
  • Christopoulos, D. K. & Tsionas, E. G., (2005). Productivity growth and Inflation in Europe: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests. Empirical Economics 30, 137-150.
  • De Gregorio J. (1992). The effects of inflation on economic growth: Lessons from Latin America. European Economic Review, 36, 417–425.
  • Dorich, J., Nicholas, L., Vadym, L. & Rhys R. M. (2018). Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability? Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper No.2018-17.
  • Edwards, S. (1994). The political economy of inflation and stabilization in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 42(2), 235-266.
  • Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 485-512.
  • Freeman, D.G., & Yerger, D. B. (2000). Does Inflation Lower Productivity? Time Series Evidence on the Impact of Inflation on Labor Productivity in 12 OECD Nations. Atlantic Economic Journal, 28, 315-332.
  • İsmihan, M., & Metin-Özcan, K., & Tansel, A. (2005). The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: The case of Turkey 1963-1999. Applied Economics 37(2), 239-251.
  • İsmihan, M. (2009). The role of political stability in macroeconomic performance, Germany: VDM Verlag Dr. Müller
  • Krugman, P. (2014). Inflation Targets Reconsidered. (conference presentation). Monetary Policy in a Changing Financial Landscape, European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking: Portugal, 110-122.
  • Lindbeck, A. (1976). Stabilization policy in open economies with endogenous politicians. The American Economic Review, 66(2), 1-19.
  • Narayan, P., & Smyth R. (2009). The effect of inflation and real wages on productivity: new evidence from a panel of G7 countries. Applied Economics 41(10), 1285-1291.
  • Ram, R. (1984). Causal Ordering Across Inflation and Productivity Growth in The Post-War United States. The Review of Economics and Statistic, 66(3), 472-477.
  • Romer, C., & Romer D. (1997). Institutions for Monetary Stability. In: Cristina D. Romer & David H. Romer (Eds.) Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 307-334.
  • Yellen, J. L. (2015): Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy, Speech at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, September 24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Emine Aybike Akkutay 0000-0002-3580-0134

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Akkutay, E. A. (2021). Does Increasing the Inflation Target Have a Positive Effect on Macroeconomic Performance?. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 6(2), 310-318.

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