Sahra Altı Afrika Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyümenin Kamu Harcamalarına Etkisi: Wagner Yasasının ve Keynesyen Yaklaşımın Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 297 - 304, 30.06.2022

Eylül Kabakçı Günay , Betul Aygun

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1990-2019 döneminde 30 Sahra Altı ülkesi için Keynesyen yaklaşımın mı, yoksa Wagner yasasının mı geçerli olduğunu araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu nedenle, Sahra Altı Afrika ülkelerinde Wagner yasasının ve Keynesyen yaklaşımın geçerliliği Payne -Ewing modelinden türetilen bir ekonometrik model kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Panel katsayı tahmincisi olarak ise, Eberhardt ve Teal (2010) tarafından türetilen ve genişletilmiş ortalama grup tahmincisi olarak bilinen (Augmented Mean Group Estimator) tercih edilmiştir. Analiz neticesinde, Sahra Altı Afrika ülkelerinde kamu harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu nedenle denilebilir ki, Sahra Altı Afrika ülkeleri için Keynesyen Yaklaşım geçerlidir. Bu etkinin yönü ve büyüklüğü incelendiğinde, Sahra Altı Afrika ülkelerinde kamu harcamalarının ekonomik büyümeyi düşürdüğü tespit edilmiştir. Söz konusu Afrika ülkelerinde, kamu harcamalarında yapılan her 1 birimlik artış; ekonomik büyümede 0.3 birimlik azalmaya yol açmaktadır. Bu bulgu, Robert Barro'nun (1990) araştırmasıyla tutarlıdır. Barro (1990) çalışmasında kamu harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisinin olabileceğini, ancak bu etkinin her zaman olumlu yönde olmayacağını ifade etmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Keynesyen Yaklaşım, Wagner Yasası, Sahra Altı Afrika, Kamu Harcamaları, Ekonomik Büyüme

The Impact of Economic Growth on Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis for Wagner Law and Keynesian Approach

Öz

This study aims to research whether Keynesian approach or Wagner Law is valid for 30 Sub-Saharan countries between the period of 1990-2019. The validity of the Wagner law and Keynesian approach has been tested by using an econometric model, which is derived from the Payne -Ewing model. As a panel coefficient estimator, the AMG estimator has been preferred that derived by Eberhardt and Teal (2010). As a consequence, it is concluded that government expenditure affects economic development in Sub-Saharan African countries. It is determined that government expenditure affects economic growth, and the direction of this effect is negative. This means government expenditure decreases economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. Consequently, Keynesian approach is valid for Sub-Saharan African countries. Each 1-unit increase in public expenditures in the African countries in question; it causes a 0.3-unit decrease in economic growth. The finding is consistent with that of Robert Barro's (1990) research that stated public expenditures may have an effect on economic growth, but this effect will not always be positive.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Keynesian Approach, Wagner Law, Sub-Saharan Africa, Government Expenditure, Economic Growth

Kaynakça

• Ansari, M. I., Gordon, D. V., & Akuamoah, C. (1997). Keynes versus Wagner: Public expenditure and national income for three African countries. Applied Economics, 29, 543-550. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/000368497327038
• Arestis, P., Şen, H., & Kaya, A. (2020). On the linkage between government expenditure and output: Empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54, 265-303. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-020-09284-7
• Barro, R. J. (1990). Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98 (S5): 103-125. https://doi.org/10.1086/261726
• Dumitrescu, E.I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29: 1450–1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
• Ebaid, A., & Bahari Z. (2019). The nexus between government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence of the Wagner’s law in Kuwait. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 15:1, 1-9.
• Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in non-stationary panel models: A novel estimator. MPRA Paper 17692. (Access Date: 12.09.2020), Retrieved from: http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/17692.pdf
• Eberhardt, M., & Teal, F. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. University of Oxford Discussion Paper, 515.
• Eberhardt, M. (2012). Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes. The Stata Journal, 12:1.
• Georgakopoulus, T.A., & Loizides J. (1994). The growth of the public sector: Tests of alternative hypothesis with data from Greece. The Cyprus Journal of Economics, 7, 12 – 29.
• Ghafoor, A. (2004). True or false: Empirical evidence on Wagner’s law from Cyprus. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4 (8), 58-78. 
• Jobarteh M. (2017). Testing Wagner’s law for Sub-Saharan Africa: A panel cointegration and causality approach. Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XXVII, 1(622), Spring, 125-136.
• Kamasa K., & Abebrese G. (2015). Wagner or Keynes for Ghana? Government expenditure and economic growth dynamics. A ‘VAR’ approach. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics,4,177-183.
• Kesavarajah, M. (2012). Wagner’s Law in Sri Lanka: An econometric analysis. International Scholarly Research Network (ISRN), p.1–9.
• Keynes, J.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 7. Cambridge: MacMillan. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/125515/1366_KeynesTheoryofEmployment.pdf
• Loizides, J., & Vamvoukas, G. (2005). Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing. Journal of Applied Economics, 8(1), 125-152.
• Nurudeen, A., & Usman, A. (2010). Government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria, 1970-2008: A disaggregated analysis. Business and Economics Journal, 4.
• Pesaran, M. H., (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA, Discussion Paper No. 1240.
• Pesaran, M.H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2003). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence. Cambridge Working Papers in Economic, 0346. (Access Date: 18.08.2020), Retrieved from: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0346.pdf
• Ram, R. (1986). Government size and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 76(1), 191-203.
• Sancar, C. (2012). Kamu harcamalari ekonomik büyüme ilişkisine Wagner yasasi ve Keynesyen görüş çerçevesinde teorik bir yaklaşim: Türkiye örneği (2000-2011). İnönü Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 1-19.
• Samudram, M., Nair, M., & Vaithilingam, S. (2009). Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: The case of a developing economy. Empirical Economics, 36, 697–712. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-008-0214-1
• Subair, A.S., & Okoro, A.E. (2018). Testing Wagner’s law in Nigeria in the short and long-run. Economica, 14(7), 7-23.
• Swamy, P.(1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model, Econometrica, 38(2), 311.
• Tarı,R. (2012). Ekonometri, 8. Ed, İstanbul: Umuttepe Yayınları.
• Tatoğlu Yerdelen, F. (2020). İleri Panel Veri Analizi, 4. Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım.
• The World Bank, (2021). (Access Date: 12.03.2021), https://databank.worldbank.org/
• Wagner, A. (1886). Allgemeine und theoretische Volkswirtschaftslehre – Erster Theil: Grundlegung. Leipzig: Winter. Retrieved from: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/39179362.pdf
• Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69, 709-748.
• Wu, S.Y., Tang, J.H., & Lin, E.S. (2010). The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: How sensitive to the level of development?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 32, 804–817.