Araştırma Makalesi
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2023 Resesyonu ve Türkiye’nin Potansiyel Ekonomik Performansı Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 10 - 21, 30.12.2023

Özlen Hiç Ozan Kireççi

Öz

Bu araştırma ekonomi konjönktürü genelince tartışılan “2023 Resesyonu” olgusunu gerekçeli sebepler ile açıklamaktadır. Covid-19 Pandemisi ve 2008 Büyük Resesyonu olaylarını yaşayan dünya ekonomisinin gerçekleştirmiş olduğu “Parasal ve Mali Genişleme” refleksi veriler ile gün yüzüne çıkarılmaktadır. Bu gündemlere ek olarak yakın zamanda meydana gelen “Rusya-Ukrayna” savaşının tartışılagelen “Resesyon” olgusu üzerinde yarattığı etkiler veriler ile ele alınmıştır. “Genişleyen Kamu Harcamaları ve Para Arzı”, “Enerji ve Hammadde Fiyatlarındaki Artış” gündemleri üzerinden oluşturulan makalenin son kısmını gelişmekte olan bir ekonomi olarak “Türkiye” oluşturmaktadır. Türkiye’nin özgün bir gelişmekte olan ekonomi olması ve Ukrayna-Rusya savaşında kritik bir rol üstlenmesi sebebiyle “Türkiye’nin Olası Pozisyonu” üzerine bir takım senaryolar oluşturulacaktır. Bu senaryolar sadece ekonomik verilerden yapılan çıkarımları (tahminleri) kapsayacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Resesyon Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı Parasal ve Mali Genişleme Hammadde Fiyatları Enflasyon

Kaynakça

  • Akbulaev, N., & Mammadov, I., & Aliyev, V. (2020). Economic Impact of Covid-19. SYLWAN English Edition [SYLWAN., 164(5)]. ISI Indexed
  • Alesina, A. (2012). Fiscal Policy After the Great Recession. International Atlantic Economic Society, Atl Econ J 40:429–435 DOI 10.1007/s11293-012-9337-z.
  • Arce, O. & Koester, G. & Nickel (2023). One Year Since Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – The Effects On Euro Area Inflation, The ECB Blog January Publish Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2023/html/ecb.blog20230224~3b75362af3.en.html
  • Cuicci, M. (2022). Energy Policy: General Principles. Fact Sheets on the European Union Retrieved from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/68/energy-policy-general-principles
  • Das, D. & Roy, S. (2020). Economic Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic. (07.2020) Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343222400_ECONOMIC_IMPACT_OF_COVID-19_PANDEMIC
  • Ece, N. (2022). The Effect of the Russia-Ukraine War on Foreign Trade and Global Security: The Contribution of the Montreux Convention to Preventing the Expansion of War. Kent Akademisi Dergisi. 15(3):1391-1412
  • Friedman, M. (2003). The FED’s Thermostat. Retrieved from Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB106125694925954100
  • IMF. Financial Statistic. Retrieved from https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=63122827
  • ____. Global Debt Data. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/CG_DEBT_GDP@GDD/SWE
  • ____. Commodity Data Portal. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices
  • Irtyshcheva, I., Kramarenko, I., Sirenko, I. (2022). The Economy Of War And Postwar Economic Development: World And Ukrainian Realities. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies. Vol. 8 No. 2
  • Iwański, T. (2014). Ukrainian Economy Overshadowed by War. OSW Commentary, Centre for Eastern Studies, Number 148
  • Mariotti, S. (2022). A Warning from the Russian–Ukrainian War: Avoiding a Future that Rhymes with the Past. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics 49:761–782.
  • Morgan Stanley (2023). Turkey Economics, Macro, Equity and Sovereign Credit Strategy | Europe Macro Trip Notes Ahead of Elections. April 5
  • Mulligan, R. (2021), “Monetary Policy Since the Great Recession” ; American Institute for Economic Research Retrieved from https://www.aier.org/article/monetary-policy-since-the-great-recession/
  • OECD Data Retrieved from https://data.oecd.org
  • OECD Stat Retrieved from https://stats.oecd.org
  • Oktav, Ö. (2022). Ukrayna Savaşı’nın Türkiye-Rusya İlişkilerine Olası Etkileri: Fırsatlar ve Krizler. Bilge Strateji Cilt 13 Sayı 23 Bahar 2022 ss.17-22
  • Padoan, P. (2009). Fiscal Policy in the Crisis: Impact, Sustainability, and Long-Term Implications. No.178 Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper Series
  • Sertkaya, B., Baş, S. (2021). Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri: Riskler Ve Olası Senaryolar. Dicle University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Volume 11 – Issue 21, Pages 147-167.
  • Statistical Office of European Union. EuroStat. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/
  • St.Louisiana FED. FRED Economic Data. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Veri Sistemi. EVDS. Retrieved from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php
  • TÜİK; Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu Retrieved from https://www.tuik.gov.tr/
  • Verick, S., Islam, I. (2010). The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses. Discussion of Paper Series IZA, IZA DP No. 4934
  • World Bank, World Data Indicators Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
  • Yenginar, A. (2022). Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşının Bir Sonucu Olarak İmzalanan Tahıl Koridoru Anlaşmasının Montrö Boğazlar Sözleşmesi Çerçevesinde Değerlendirilmesi. Research Journal of Marine and Engineering Technology (JOINMET) 2(2), 101-110
  • Yeyati, E. & Filippini, F. (2021). Social and Economic Impact of COVID-19. Brookings Global Working Paper #158, Global Economy and Development Program at Brookings.

An Assessment of 2023 Recession and Potential Economic Performance of Turkey

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 10 - 21, 30.12.2023

Özlen Hiç Ozan Kireççi

Öz

This research explains the phenomenon of "2023 Recession",with justified reasons. The "Monetary and Fiscal Expansion" reflex of the world economy, which experienced the Covid-19 Pandemic and the 2008 Great Recession, is brought to light with data. In addition, the impact of the recent “Ukranian War” on the discussed "Recession" phenomenon with data. "Expanding Public Expenditures and Money Supply", " Increasing Energy and Commodity Prices " are the topics of the article, and the last part of the article is devoted to "Turkey" as an emerging economy. Since Turkey plays a critical role in the Ukraine-Russia war, a number of scenarios will be created on "Turkey's Possible Position". These scenarios will only include inferences (forecasts) made from economic data.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Recession Russian-Ukraine War Monetary and Fiscal Expansion Commodity Price Inflation

Kaynakça

  • Akbulaev, N., & Mammadov, I., & Aliyev, V. (2020). Economic Impact of Covid-19. SYLWAN English Edition [SYLWAN., 164(5)]. ISI Indexed
  • Alesina, A. (2012). Fiscal Policy After the Great Recession. International Atlantic Economic Society, Atl Econ J 40:429–435 DOI 10.1007/s11293-012-9337-z.
  • Arce, O. & Koester, G. & Nickel (2023). One Year Since Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – The Effects On Euro Area Inflation, The ECB Blog January Publish Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2023/html/ecb.blog20230224~3b75362af3.en.html
  • Cuicci, M. (2022). Energy Policy: General Principles. Fact Sheets on the European Union Retrieved from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/68/energy-policy-general-principles
  • Das, D. & Roy, S. (2020). Economic Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic. (07.2020) Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343222400_ECONOMIC_IMPACT_OF_COVID-19_PANDEMIC
  • Ece, N. (2022). The Effect of the Russia-Ukraine War on Foreign Trade and Global Security: The Contribution of the Montreux Convention to Preventing the Expansion of War. Kent Akademisi Dergisi. 15(3):1391-1412
  • Friedman, M. (2003). The FED’s Thermostat. Retrieved from Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB106125694925954100
  • IMF. Financial Statistic. Retrieved from https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=63122827
  • ____. Global Debt Data. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/CG_DEBT_GDP@GDD/SWE
  • ____. Commodity Data Portal. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices
  • Irtyshcheva, I., Kramarenko, I., Sirenko, I. (2022). The Economy Of War And Postwar Economic Development: World And Ukrainian Realities. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies. Vol. 8 No. 2
  • Iwański, T. (2014). Ukrainian Economy Overshadowed by War. OSW Commentary, Centre for Eastern Studies, Number 148
  • Mariotti, S. (2022). A Warning from the Russian–Ukrainian War: Avoiding a Future that Rhymes with the Past. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics 49:761–782.
  • Morgan Stanley (2023). Turkey Economics, Macro, Equity and Sovereign Credit Strategy | Europe Macro Trip Notes Ahead of Elections. April 5
  • Mulligan, R. (2021), “Monetary Policy Since the Great Recession” ; American Institute for Economic Research Retrieved from https://www.aier.org/article/monetary-policy-since-the-great-recession/
  • OECD Data Retrieved from https://data.oecd.org
  • OECD Stat Retrieved from https://stats.oecd.org
  • Oktav, Ö. (2022). Ukrayna Savaşı’nın Türkiye-Rusya İlişkilerine Olası Etkileri: Fırsatlar ve Krizler. Bilge Strateji Cilt 13 Sayı 23 Bahar 2022 ss.17-22
  • Padoan, P. (2009). Fiscal Policy in the Crisis: Impact, Sustainability, and Long-Term Implications. No.178 Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper Series
  • Sertkaya, B., Baş, S. (2021). Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri: Riskler Ve Olası Senaryolar. Dicle University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Volume 11 – Issue 21, Pages 147-167.
  • Statistical Office of European Union. EuroStat. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/
  • St.Louisiana FED. FRED Economic Data. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Veri Sistemi. EVDS. Retrieved from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php
  • TÜİK; Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu Retrieved from https://www.tuik.gov.tr/
  • Verick, S., Islam, I. (2010). The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses. Discussion of Paper Series IZA, IZA DP No. 4934
  • World Bank, World Data Indicators Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
  • Yenginar, A. (2022). Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşının Bir Sonucu Olarak İmzalanan Tahıl Koridoru Anlaşmasının Montrö Boğazlar Sözleşmesi Çerçevesinde Değerlendirilmesi. Research Journal of Marine and Engineering Technology (JOINMET) 2(2), 101-110
  • Yeyati, E. & Filippini, F. (2021). Social and Economic Impact of COVID-19. Brookings Global Working Paper #158, Global Economy and Development Program at Brookings.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Özlen Hiç 0000-0002-2308-3393

Ozan Kireççi Bu kişi benim 0009-0005-1251-5671

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 4 Ağustos 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Hiç, Ö., & Kireççi, O. (2023). An Assessment of 2023 Recession and Potential Economic Performance of Turkey. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(2), 10-21.
 Kapak Resmi İndir

The sole purpose of JOEEP is to be a prestigious journal which contributes to scientific knowledge. In order to keep this purpose, JOEEP, adopts and follows the publication policies of world’s prestigious scientific journals. All original and qualified works which may contribute to the scientific knowledge, are evaluated through a rigorous editorial and peer review process. Hereby, JOEEP is a peer reviewed and scientific journal. It strictly depends on the scientific principles, rules and ethical framework that are required to this qualification.

JOEEP is published as two issues per year June and December and all publication policies and processes are conducted according to the international standards. JOEEP accepts and publishes the research articles in the fields of economics, political economy, fiscal economics, applied economics, business economics, labour economics and econometrics. JOEEP, without depending on any institution or organization, is a non-profit journal that has an International Editorial Board specialist on their fields. All “Publication Process” and “Writing Guidelines” are explained in the related title and it is expected from authors to Show a complete match to the rules. JOEEP is an open Access journal.