Araştırma Makalesi
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Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin NARDL Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 1 - 9, 30.12.2023

Öz

Günümüzde ürünlerin imalatında kullanılan ana hammaddelerden birinin ham petrol olması nedeniyle, bu önemli kaynağın fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalar, nihai ürünlere girdi maliyetleri olarak yansımaktadır. Özellikle son yıllarda yaşanan ham petrol fiyatlarındaki artış ve dalgalanmaların ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olan etkisinin ne düzeyde olduğu da büyük önem taşımaktadır. Petrole olan bağımlılığın artmasıyla birlikte bir kısır döngüye dönüşen bu sürecin etkileri, kuşkusuz tüm dünya ekonomileri gibi Türkiye ekonomisinde de hissedilmektedir. Petrol fiyatlarındaki artış veya düşüşlerin küresel ekonomi üzerindeki öneminden yola çıkarak, bu çalışmada petrol fiyatları ile Türkiye ekonomisinin büyümesi arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin ampirik olarak araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu sebeple, Türkiye'de 1976-2021 döneminde uzun dönem bütünleşmeyi incelemek için Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL (NARDL) modeli kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, ham petrol fiyatlarındaki pozitif ve negatif şokların Türkiye'de Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla üzerinde asimetrik bir etkiye sahip olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, akademisyenlere, profesyonellere ve karar vericilere politika alanında tavsiyelerde bulunmak açısından önemlidir. Ham petrol fiyatlarının hem yurt içinde hem de dünyada istikrarlı bir ekonomik büyüme sürecinde oynadığı rolün daha iyi anlaşılması ile Türkiye'nin bu alandaki politikalarının irdelenmesi ve gerekli politika değişikliklerin yapılması önerilmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Abdelsalam, M. A. M. (2020). Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: The case of MENA countries. Review of Economics and Political Science.
  • Akinsola, M. O., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Asymmetric effect of oil price on economic growth: Panel analysis of low-income oil-importing countries. Energy Reports, 6, 1057-1066.
  • Akgül, I., Yazgan, S. Ö., & Çevik, E. (2018). Foreign Trade Balance and Non-Linear Cointegration: The Case of Turkey /Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme: Türkiye Örneği. Proceedings Of ICOPEC2018, 159.
  • Al-Sasi, B. O., Taylan, O., & Demirbas, A. (2017). The impact of oil price volatility on economic growth. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12(10), 847-852.
  • Baz, K., Xu, D., Ali, H., Ali, I., Khan, I., Khan, M. M., & Cheng, J. (2020). Asymmetric impact of energy consumption and economic growth on ecological footprint: using asymmetric and nonlinear approach. Science of the total environment, 718, 137364.
  • Broock, W. A., Scheinkman, J. A., Dechert, W. D., & LeBaron, B. (1996). A test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension. Econometric Reviews, 15(3), 197-235.
  • Chowdhury, M. A. F., Meo, M. S., Uddin, A., & Haque, M. M. (2020). Asymmetric Effect of Energy Price on Commodity Price: New Evidence from NARDL and Time Frequency Wavelet Approaches. Energy, 119461.
  • Cuñado, J., & de Gracia, F. P. (2003). Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries. Energy economics, 25(2), 137-154.
  • Deaton, A. (1999). Commodity prices and growth in Africa. Journal of economic Perspectives, 13(3), 23-40.
  • Fallahi, F. (2011). Causal relationship between energy consumption (EC) and GDP: a Markov-switching (MS) causality. Energy, 36(7), 4165-4170.
  • Fernandes, M. (1998). Non‐linearity and exchange rates. Journal of Forecasting, 17(7), 497-514.
  • Ghalayini, L. (2011). The interaction between oil price and economic growth. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 13(21), 127-141.
  • Gorus, M. S., Ozgur, O., & Develi, A. (2019). The relationship between oil prices, oil imports and income level in Turkey: evidence from Fourier approximation. OPEC Energy Review, 43(3), 327-341.
  • Güler, A. (2021). Reel döviz kuru şoklarının ihracat ve dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri: Türkiye için NARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(2), 950-970.
  • Huang, M., Shao, W., & Wang, J. (2023). Correlations between the crude oil market and capital markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A perspective of crude oil importing and exporting countries. Resources Policy, 80, 103233.
  • Kamacı, A., & Göktaş, S. Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(22), 547-556.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied economics, 37(2), 201-228.
  • Kriskkumar, K., Naseem, N. A. M., & Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2022). Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Economic Growth in Malaysia: Applying Augmented ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Techniques. SAGE Open, 12(1), 21582440221079936.
  • Lang, K., & Auer, B. R. (2020). The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 52, 100914.
  • Liadze, I., Macchiarelli, C., Mortimer‐Lee, P., & Sanchez Juanino, P. (2022). Economic costs of the Russia‐Ukraine war. The World Economy.
  • Kartal, M.T, Ertuğrul, H.M. ve Ulussever, T. (2022). The impacts of foreign portfolio flows and monetary policy responses on stock markets by considering COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Turkey, Borsa Istanbul Review, 22(1), pp. 12-19.
  • Kim, I. M. (1993). A dynamic programming approach to the estimation of Markov switching regression models. Journal of statistical computation and simulation, 45(1-2), 61-76.
  • Moutinho, V., Oliveira, H., & Mota, J. (2022). Examining the long term relationships between energy commodities prices and carbon prices on electricity prices using Markov Switching Regression. Energy Reports, 8, 589-594.
  • Mork, K. A. (1989). Oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down: an extension of Hamilton's results. Journal of political Economy, 97(3), 740-744.
  • Mork, K. A., Olsen, O., & Mysen, H. T. (1994). Macroeconomic responses to oil price increases and decreases in seven OECD countries. The Energy Journal, 15(4).
  • Narayan, S., & Narayan, P. K. (2004). Determinants of Demand for Fiji's Exports: An Empirical investigation. The Developing Economies, 42(1), 95-112.
  • Nazer, Y., & Pescatori, A. (2022). OPEC and the Oil Market. IMF Working Paper.
  • Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554.
  • Pesaran, M.H, Shin, Y, Smith R.J.(2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3) (2001), pp. 289-326.
  • Perron, P., & Qu, Z. (2007). A simple modification to improve the finite sample properties of Ng and Perron's unit root tests. Economics letters, 94(1), 12-19.
  • Prasad, A., Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, J. (2007). Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands. Energy Policy, 35(12), 6506-6513.
  • Samour, A., & Pata, U. K. (2022). The impact of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy in Turkey: a bootstrap ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(33), 50352-50361.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In: Sickles, R., Horrace, W. (eds) Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, NY.
  • Şengül, O. (2023). Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Dalgalanmaların Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri: Asimetrik Testlerden Kanıtlar. Fiscaoeconomia, 7(2), 1591-1610.
  • Wen, F., Min, F., Zhang, Y. J., & Yang, C. (2019). Crude oil price shocks, monetary policy, and China's economy. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 812-827.
  • Xu, D., Sheraz, M., Hassan, A., Sinha, A., & Ullah, S. (2022). Financial development, renewable energy and CO2 emission in G7 countries: new evidence from non-linear and asymmetric analysis. Energy Economics, 109, 105994.
  • Zhang, Y. J., & Chen, M. Y. (2018). Evaluating the dynamic performace of energy portfolios: Empirical evidence from the DEA directional distance function. European Journal of Operational Research, 269(1), 64-78.
  • Zheng, J., Assad, U., Kamal, M. A., & Wang, H. (2022). Foreign direct investment and carbon emissions in China: “Pollution Haven” or “Pollution Halo”? Evidence from the NARDL model. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 1-26.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shocok and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.

Using the NARDL Model to Examine the Relationship between Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 1 - 9, 30.12.2023

Öz

Crude oil is one of the main raw resources used to produce commodities today; therefore, changes in the price of this essential resource are reflected as input costs in the final costs of the products. The impact of fluctuating crude oil prices on economic growth, particularly in recent years, is significant. Actually, fluctuations in the price of oil can have an impact on both the global economy's structure and the economy of Turkey. Given the significance of either rising or falling oil prices to the global economy, the aim of this paper is to investigate and determine the co-integration relationship between oil prices and economic growth in the Turkish economy. The nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model was employed in order to evaluate the long-term integration of the Turkish economy throughout the years 1976–2021. The findings demonstrate that Turkey’s GDP is asymmetrically affected by both positive and negative shocks to crude oil prices. This research’s conclusions are essential for counseling academics, professionals, and policymakers. It is recommended that Turkey reevaluate its policies in this area and make any necessary modifications in light of a deeper understanding of the role that crude oil prices play in a process of stable economic growth both inside the country and outside the world.

Kaynakça

  • Abdelsalam, M. A. M. (2020). Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: The case of MENA countries. Review of Economics and Political Science.
  • Akinsola, M. O., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Asymmetric effect of oil price on economic growth: Panel analysis of low-income oil-importing countries. Energy Reports, 6, 1057-1066.
  • Akgül, I., Yazgan, S. Ö., & Çevik, E. (2018). Foreign Trade Balance and Non-Linear Cointegration: The Case of Turkey /Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme: Türkiye Örneği. Proceedings Of ICOPEC2018, 159.
  • Al-Sasi, B. O., Taylan, O., & Demirbas, A. (2017). The impact of oil price volatility on economic growth. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12(10), 847-852.
  • Baz, K., Xu, D., Ali, H., Ali, I., Khan, I., Khan, M. M., & Cheng, J. (2020). Asymmetric impact of energy consumption and economic growth on ecological footprint: using asymmetric and nonlinear approach. Science of the total environment, 718, 137364.
  • Broock, W. A., Scheinkman, J. A., Dechert, W. D., & LeBaron, B. (1996). A test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension. Econometric Reviews, 15(3), 197-235.
  • Chowdhury, M. A. F., Meo, M. S., Uddin, A., & Haque, M. M. (2020). Asymmetric Effect of Energy Price on Commodity Price: New Evidence from NARDL and Time Frequency Wavelet Approaches. Energy, 119461.
  • Cuñado, J., & de Gracia, F. P. (2003). Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries. Energy economics, 25(2), 137-154.
  • Deaton, A. (1999). Commodity prices and growth in Africa. Journal of economic Perspectives, 13(3), 23-40.
  • Fallahi, F. (2011). Causal relationship between energy consumption (EC) and GDP: a Markov-switching (MS) causality. Energy, 36(7), 4165-4170.
  • Fernandes, M. (1998). Non‐linearity and exchange rates. Journal of Forecasting, 17(7), 497-514.
  • Ghalayini, L. (2011). The interaction between oil price and economic growth. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 13(21), 127-141.
  • Gorus, M. S., Ozgur, O., & Develi, A. (2019). The relationship between oil prices, oil imports and income level in Turkey: evidence from Fourier approximation. OPEC Energy Review, 43(3), 327-341.
  • Güler, A. (2021). Reel döviz kuru şoklarının ihracat ve dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri: Türkiye için NARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(2), 950-970.
  • Huang, M., Shao, W., & Wang, J. (2023). Correlations between the crude oil market and capital markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A perspective of crude oil importing and exporting countries. Resources Policy, 80, 103233.
  • Kamacı, A., & Göktaş, S. Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(22), 547-556.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied economics, 37(2), 201-228.
  • Kriskkumar, K., Naseem, N. A. M., & Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2022). Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Economic Growth in Malaysia: Applying Augmented ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Techniques. SAGE Open, 12(1), 21582440221079936.
  • Lang, K., & Auer, B. R. (2020). The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 52, 100914.
  • Liadze, I., Macchiarelli, C., Mortimer‐Lee, P., & Sanchez Juanino, P. (2022). Economic costs of the Russia‐Ukraine war. The World Economy.
  • Kartal, M.T, Ertuğrul, H.M. ve Ulussever, T. (2022). The impacts of foreign portfolio flows and monetary policy responses on stock markets by considering COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Turkey, Borsa Istanbul Review, 22(1), pp. 12-19.
  • Kim, I. M. (1993). A dynamic programming approach to the estimation of Markov switching regression models. Journal of statistical computation and simulation, 45(1-2), 61-76.
  • Moutinho, V., Oliveira, H., & Mota, J. (2022). Examining the long term relationships between energy commodities prices and carbon prices on electricity prices using Markov Switching Regression. Energy Reports, 8, 589-594.
  • Mork, K. A. (1989). Oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down: an extension of Hamilton's results. Journal of political Economy, 97(3), 740-744.
  • Mork, K. A., Olsen, O., & Mysen, H. T. (1994). Macroeconomic responses to oil price increases and decreases in seven OECD countries. The Energy Journal, 15(4).
  • Narayan, S., & Narayan, P. K. (2004). Determinants of Demand for Fiji's Exports: An Empirical investigation. The Developing Economies, 42(1), 95-112.
  • Nazer, Y., & Pescatori, A. (2022). OPEC and the Oil Market. IMF Working Paper.
  • Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554.
  • Pesaran, M.H, Shin, Y, Smith R.J.(2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3) (2001), pp. 289-326.
  • Perron, P., & Qu, Z. (2007). A simple modification to improve the finite sample properties of Ng and Perron's unit root tests. Economics letters, 94(1), 12-19.
  • Prasad, A., Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, J. (2007). Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands. Energy Policy, 35(12), 6506-6513.
  • Samour, A., & Pata, U. K. (2022). The impact of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy in Turkey: a bootstrap ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(33), 50352-50361.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In: Sickles, R., Horrace, W. (eds) Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, NY.
  • Şengül, O. (2023). Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Dalgalanmaların Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri: Asimetrik Testlerden Kanıtlar. Fiscaoeconomia, 7(2), 1591-1610.
  • Wen, F., Min, F., Zhang, Y. J., & Yang, C. (2019). Crude oil price shocks, monetary policy, and China's economy. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 812-827.
  • Xu, D., Sheraz, M., Hassan, A., Sinha, A., & Ullah, S. (2022). Financial development, renewable energy and CO2 emission in G7 countries: new evidence from non-linear and asymmetric analysis. Energy Economics, 109, 105994.
  • Zhang, Y. J., & Chen, M. Y. (2018). Evaluating the dynamic performace of energy portfolios: Empirical evidence from the DEA directional distance function. European Journal of Operational Research, 269(1), 64-78.
  • Zheng, J., Assad, U., Kamal, M. A., & Wang, H. (2022). Foreign direct investment and carbon emissions in China: “Pollution Haven” or “Pollution Halo”? Evidence from the NARDL model. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 1-26.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shocok and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Melike TORUN 0000-0003-4828-9379

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 4 Ağustos 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA TORUN, M. (2023). Using the NARDL Model to Examine the Relationship between Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(2), 1-9.

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