Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Do Oil Prices Still Matter for Macroeconomic Performance? An ARDL Model for Turkey

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 279 - 300, 30.12.2023

Öz

Understanding the effect of oil price swings on macroeconomic performance is decisive in the analysis for policy makers. This need has made it necessary to conduct sophisticated investigations for researchers since the first OPEC embargo. Analyses that focused on the traditional linear relationship between oil price changes and macroeconomic performance were followed by nonlinear and asymmetrical analyses, as well as ARDL methods, both in developed and developing countries in recent years. To that end, this study aims to investigate the existence of a long-run and short-run relationship between oil prices and economic growth, proxied by industrial production index, consumer price index, and real exchange rates applying ARDL cointegration analysis to monthly data for the 2001:07 and 2023:05 period in Turkey. Results of our empirical model show that industrial production is positively related to oil prices between 2001:07 and 2017:08. However, the relationship between real oil prices and the industraial production index shifts a negative correlation from 2017:09 to 2023:05.

Kaynakça

  • Algahtani, G. (2016). The Effect of Oil Prices Shocks on Economic Activity in Saudi Arabia: Econometric Approach. International Journal Business and Management. 11(2)
  • Alper E., C. & Torul, O., (2008). Oil prices, aggregate economic activity and global liquidity conditions: Evidence from Turkey, Economics Bulletin 17 (4). 1-8.
  • Altıntaş H., Benli M. , Kaplan, M. (November, 2016). Oil Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence From NARLD. International Congress of Management Economy and Policy Proceedings, Vol.III, 26-27 November, Istanbul.
  • Alvarez, L, J., Hurtado, S., Sanchez, I., Thomas, C. (2011). The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and the euro
  • Barışık, S., & Yayar, R. (2012). Sanayi üretim endeksini etkileyen faktörlerin ekonometrik analizi. İktisat İşletme, Finans, 27, 53-70.
  • Barsky, R., & Kilian, L. (2001). Do we really know that oil caused the great stagflation? A monetary alternative. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16 (Vol. 16). https://doi.org/10.3386/w8389
  • Barsky R., Kilian L. (2004). Oil and Macroeconomy since the 1970s. Journal of Economic Perspectives,18(Fall), 115-134
  • Baumeister, C., Hamilton J., D., (2019). Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks. American Economic Review, 109 (5): 1873-1910.
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Watson, M. (1997). Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997(1), 91–157. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534702.
  • Blanchard O. J., Gali J. (2007). The macroeconomic effects of oil shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? Gali, Jordi and Mark Gertler (eds.) International Dimensions of Monetary Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009.
  • Bohi, D. R. (1989). Energy price shocks and macroeconomic performance. Resources for the Future, Washington, DC.
  • Brown, S.,Yucel, M. (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 42, 193-208.
  • Bruno, M., Sach, J. (1982). Input Price Shocksand Slowdown in Economic Growth: Tha Case of UK Manufacturing. NBER Working Paper Series, No:851.
  • Cashin P., Mohaddes K., Raissi M., Raissi M. (2014). The differential effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks on global economy. Energy Economics (44), 113-134.
  • Chang, Y., Jha, K., Fernandez K.M., Jam’an , N. F. (2011). Oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic performances in Asian and Oceanic economies. Proceedings of 30th United States Association for Energy Economics/ International Association for Energy Economics North American conference, Washhington DC, October 9-12
  • Cologni, A., & Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856–888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.11.001
  • Conflitti, C. & Luciani, M. (2017). Oil price pass-through into core inflation. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-085. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.085.
  • Cuñado, J., & Gracia, F. P. De. (2003). Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries. Energy Economics, 25(2),137–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00099-3
  • Çatık A. Nazif, Özlem A. Önder (2013). “An asymnetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey”, Economic Modelling, 33, pp.884-892.
  • Darby M. R. (1982). The price of oil and World inflation and recession. American Economic Review, 72(4), 738-751.
  • Dickey, D., A., Fuller, W. A.,(1981) Likelihood Ratio statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4) 1057-1072.
  • Du, L., Yanan, H., & Wei, C. (2010). The relationship between oil price shocks and China’s macro-economy: An empirical analysis. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4142–4151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.042
  • Elafif, M., Alsamara, M. K., Mrabet, Z.,..(2017). The asymmetric effects of oil price on economic growth in Turkey and Saudi Arabia: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. International Journal of Development and Conflict, 7(2), 97-118.
  • Fratzscher, M., Schneider, D., Van, Robays I. (2014). Oil prices, exchange rates and asset prices. Working Paper Series No 1689, European Central Bank.
  • Ftiti Z., Guesmi K., Teulon F., Chouachi S. (2016). Relationship between crude oil prices and economic growth in selected OPEC countries. The Journal of Applied Business Research (32), 11-22.
  • Gisser M., Goodwin T. (1986). Crude oil and macroeconomy: Test of some popular nations. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (32), 1-22.
  • Gokce, A. (2013). The Dynamics Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Turkey’s Economic Growth. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(8), 181-192.
  • Gokmenoglu, K., Azin V., Taspınar, N. (2015). The Relationship between industrial producation, gdp, inflation, oil prices: The case for Turkey, Procedia Economia and Finace 25, 497-503
  • Gómez-Loscos, A., Gadea, M. D., & Montañés, A. (2012). Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: Are the 1970s coming back? Applied Economics, 44(35), 4575–4589 https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.591741
  • R.F. Engle, C.W. Granger (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing Econometrica journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Hamilton, J.D. (1983). Oil and macroeconomy since World War II. Jounal of Political Economy 91,228-248.
  • Hamilton, J.D. (2003). What is an Oil Shock?, Journal of Econometrics 113: 363-398
  • Hamilton., J.D. (1996). This is what happened to oil price-macroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 215-220.
  • Hooker, M. A. (1996). What happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-213.,
  • Hooker, M. A. (2002). Are oil schock inflationary? Asymetric and non linear specifications versus changes in regime. Jourbal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 540-561.
  • Hoover, K.D., Perez, S.J. (1994). Post hoc ergo propter once more: an evaluation of does monetary policy matter? in the spirit of James Tobin. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 47–73.
  • Iwayemi, A., & Fowowe, B. (2011). Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Energy Policy, 39(2), 603-612. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.033
  • Ji, Q., Shahzad, S.J.H., Bouri, E. et al. (2020). Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: lessons to learn. Economic Structures 9, 20 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-020-00194-5
  • Jimanez-Rodriguez, R., Sanchez M. (May 2004). Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries, Euopean Central Bank Working Paper Series, No: 362.
  • Johansen S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12, pp. 231-254
  • Kırca, M., Canbay, Ş., Pirali, K., (2020). Is relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent? Resources Policy, 69, pp.1-9.
  • Kibritcioglu A., “Türkiye’de Akaryakıt Ürünü Fiyat Gelişmelerive Enflasyon: Yeni Bulgular”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Tartışma Metinleri, 1999
  • Kilian, L. (2009). ‘Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market’, American Economic Review, 99, 1053–69.
  • Kilian, L. (2008). ‘A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries’, Journal of the European Economic Association, 6, 78-121.
  • Krugman, P. (1983). Oil shocks and exchange rate dynamics. In: Frenkel JA (ed) In exchange rate and international economics. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
  • Lardic A., Mignon V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics (30), 847-85
  • Lee. J., Strazicich M. C. (2003) Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4):1082-1089.
  • Lee, K., Ni, S., Ratti, R. A. (1995). Oil shocks and the economy: the role of price variability. Energy Journal 16, 39-56.
  • Leung, G. C. K. (2010). China’s oil use, 1990-2008. Energy Policy 38 (2): 932-944
  • Lilien, D. (1982), “Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy 90: 777-793.
  • Mendoza O., Vera D. (2010). The Asymmetric Effects of Oil priceshocs on the oil exporting economy. Cuadernos de Economia (47), 3-13
  • Morana C. (2017). Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from Euro area. Economic Modelling (64). 82-96.
  • Mork K. A. (1989). Oil and macroeconomywhen prices go up and down:an extension of Hamilton’s results. Journal of Political Economy 97, 740-744.
  • Mork K. A.(1994). Business cycles and oil market. Energy Journal, 15(S), 15-38.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), pp. 1979–1990. doi: 10.1080/00036840500278103.
  • Johansen, S., (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, pp. 231–254.
  • Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models( Oxford:Oxford University Press).
  • Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration withapplications to the demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52, pp. 169–210.
  • Nkoro E., Uko A. K. (2016). Autoreggressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique. Journal of statistical and Econometric Methods, 5, 4, pp. 63-91.
  • Özlale, Ü. & Karakurt, A. (2012). Türkiye’de tasarruf açığının nedenleri ve kapatılması için politika önerileri, Bankacılar Dergisi TBB, 83, ss. 1-33
  • Pesaran, M.H., Pesaran B. (1997). Working with microfit 4.0: Interactive econometic analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. in S. Strom (eds), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press
  • Pesaran M. H., Shin Y, Smith J.R, (2001). Bound Testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics,16, pp.289-326.
  • Philip P., C., B., Perron, P., P. (1988). Testing for unit root in time series regression. Biometrica, 75, 335-346.
  • Rasche R.H., Tatom J. A. (1981). Energy price shocks, aggregate supply, and monetary policy: theory and international evidence. In: Brunner, K., Meltzer, A.H. (Eds), Supply Shocks, Incentives and National Wealth, Carnegie-Roschester conference Series on Public Policy, 14, North Holland, Amsterdam.
  • Rogoff K. (2005). Oil and the global economy. International Energy Forum Meeting. Riyadh, November 19.
  • Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H. (1994). Monetary policy matters. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 75–88.
  • Shimul, S. N., Grant, J. P., Abdullah, S. M., & Siddiqua, S. (2009). An Examination of Fdi and Growth Nexus in Bangladesh: Engle Granger and Bound Testing Cointegration Approach. BRAC University Journal, 1(1), 69–76.
  • OPEC (2018). Annual Statistical Bulletin, 53rd Edition. Retrieved from: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB%202018.pdf.
  • Sadeghi, A., (2017). Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries: Does the Size of Government Matter?, IMF Working Papers 2017/287, International Monetary Fund.
  • Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S. A., Mahmood, H., & Arouri, M. (2013). Does financial development reduce CO2 emissions in Malaysian economy? A time series analysis. Economic Modelling, 35, 145-152.
  • Sotoudeh, M. A. L. I., & Worthington, A. C. (2017). Nonlinear Effects of Oil Prices on Consumer Prices : A Comparative Study of Net Oil Consuming and Producing Countries, 9, 57–79.
  • Tausif, R., Haque M.,I. & Khan, M.R. (2023). Effect of oil price shocks on output and prices: evidence from Saudi Arabia. Environmental Science and Pollution Results, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30041-6
  • Torul O., Alper E., C. (2010), Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 6, 1-16
  • Van Dinh, D., (2022). Crude oil price fluctuation and economic growth : ARDL model approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 12 (4), S. 240 – 248.
  • Yildirim, N., Ozcelebi, O., & Ozkan, S. O. (2015). Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importer, Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business 33(1), 11–35.
Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 279 - 300, 30.12.2023

Öz

Petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimin makroekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisinin anlaşılması politikacıların analizleri için oldukça hayatidir. Birinci OPEC ambargosundan bu yana, söz konusu ihtiyaç araştırmacıları detaylı analizleri gerçekleştirmeye sevk etmiştir. Son yıllarda gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde petrol fiyatları ile makroekonomik performans arasındaki klasik doğrusal ilişki analizleri, doğrusal olmayan, asimetrik ve ARDL yöntemlerince de sürdürülmüştür. Bu çalışma aylık veriler kullanarak 2001:07- 2023:05 dönemi için reel petrol fiyatları, sanayi üretim endeksi, tüketici fiyat endeksi ve reel döviz kuru arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkiyi ARDL eş bütünleşme modeli yardımıyla araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye’de, 2001:07 ila 2017:08 dönemi arasında reel petrol fiyatları ile sanayi üretimi indeksi arasında hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde pozitif bir ilişki görülmektedir. Ancak 2017:09 ila 2023:05 arasında bu ilişki hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde negatife dönmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Algahtani, G. (2016). The Effect of Oil Prices Shocks on Economic Activity in Saudi Arabia: Econometric Approach. International Journal Business and Management. 11(2)
  • Alper E., C. & Torul, O., (2008). Oil prices, aggregate economic activity and global liquidity conditions: Evidence from Turkey, Economics Bulletin 17 (4). 1-8.
  • Altıntaş H., Benli M. , Kaplan, M. (November, 2016). Oil Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence From NARLD. International Congress of Management Economy and Policy Proceedings, Vol.III, 26-27 November, Istanbul.
  • Alvarez, L, J., Hurtado, S., Sanchez, I., Thomas, C. (2011). The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and the euro
  • Barışık, S., & Yayar, R. (2012). Sanayi üretim endeksini etkileyen faktörlerin ekonometrik analizi. İktisat İşletme, Finans, 27, 53-70.
  • Barsky, R., & Kilian, L. (2001). Do we really know that oil caused the great stagflation? A monetary alternative. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16 (Vol. 16). https://doi.org/10.3386/w8389
  • Barsky R., Kilian L. (2004). Oil and Macroeconomy since the 1970s. Journal of Economic Perspectives,18(Fall), 115-134
  • Baumeister, C., Hamilton J., D., (2019). Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks. American Economic Review, 109 (5): 1873-1910.
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Watson, M. (1997). Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997(1), 91–157. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534702.
  • Blanchard O. J., Gali J. (2007). The macroeconomic effects of oil shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? Gali, Jordi and Mark Gertler (eds.) International Dimensions of Monetary Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009.
  • Bohi, D. R. (1989). Energy price shocks and macroeconomic performance. Resources for the Future, Washington, DC.
  • Brown, S.,Yucel, M. (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 42, 193-208.
  • Bruno, M., Sach, J. (1982). Input Price Shocksand Slowdown in Economic Growth: Tha Case of UK Manufacturing. NBER Working Paper Series, No:851.
  • Cashin P., Mohaddes K., Raissi M., Raissi M. (2014). The differential effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks on global economy. Energy Economics (44), 113-134.
  • Chang, Y., Jha, K., Fernandez K.M., Jam’an , N. F. (2011). Oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic performances in Asian and Oceanic economies. Proceedings of 30th United States Association for Energy Economics/ International Association for Energy Economics North American conference, Washhington DC, October 9-12
  • Cologni, A., & Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856–888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.11.001
  • Conflitti, C. & Luciani, M. (2017). Oil price pass-through into core inflation. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-085. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.085.
  • Cuñado, J., & Gracia, F. P. De. (2003). Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries. Energy Economics, 25(2),137–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00099-3
  • Çatık A. Nazif, Özlem A. Önder (2013). “An asymnetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey”, Economic Modelling, 33, pp.884-892.
  • Darby M. R. (1982). The price of oil and World inflation and recession. American Economic Review, 72(4), 738-751.
  • Dickey, D., A., Fuller, W. A.,(1981) Likelihood Ratio statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4) 1057-1072.
  • Du, L., Yanan, H., & Wei, C. (2010). The relationship between oil price shocks and China’s macro-economy: An empirical analysis. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4142–4151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.042
  • Elafif, M., Alsamara, M. K., Mrabet, Z.,..(2017). The asymmetric effects of oil price on economic growth in Turkey and Saudi Arabia: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. International Journal of Development and Conflict, 7(2), 97-118.
  • Fratzscher, M., Schneider, D., Van, Robays I. (2014). Oil prices, exchange rates and asset prices. Working Paper Series No 1689, European Central Bank.
  • Ftiti Z., Guesmi K., Teulon F., Chouachi S. (2016). Relationship between crude oil prices and economic growth in selected OPEC countries. The Journal of Applied Business Research (32), 11-22.
  • Gisser M., Goodwin T. (1986). Crude oil and macroeconomy: Test of some popular nations. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (32), 1-22.
  • Gokce, A. (2013). The Dynamics Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Turkey’s Economic Growth. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(8), 181-192.
  • Gokmenoglu, K., Azin V., Taspınar, N. (2015). The Relationship between industrial producation, gdp, inflation, oil prices: The case for Turkey, Procedia Economia and Finace 25, 497-503
  • Gómez-Loscos, A., Gadea, M. D., & Montañés, A. (2012). Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: Are the 1970s coming back? Applied Economics, 44(35), 4575–4589 https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.591741
  • R.F. Engle, C.W. Granger (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing Econometrica journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Hamilton, J.D. (1983). Oil and macroeconomy since World War II. Jounal of Political Economy 91,228-248.
  • Hamilton, J.D. (2003). What is an Oil Shock?, Journal of Econometrics 113: 363-398
  • Hamilton., J.D. (1996). This is what happened to oil price-macroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 215-220.
  • Hooker, M. A. (1996). What happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-213.,
  • Hooker, M. A. (2002). Are oil schock inflationary? Asymetric and non linear specifications versus changes in regime. Jourbal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 540-561.
  • Hoover, K.D., Perez, S.J. (1994). Post hoc ergo propter once more: an evaluation of does monetary policy matter? in the spirit of James Tobin. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 47–73.
  • Iwayemi, A., & Fowowe, B. (2011). Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Energy Policy, 39(2), 603-612. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.033
  • Ji, Q., Shahzad, S.J.H., Bouri, E. et al. (2020). Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: lessons to learn. Economic Structures 9, 20 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-020-00194-5
  • Jimanez-Rodriguez, R., Sanchez M. (May 2004). Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries, Euopean Central Bank Working Paper Series, No: 362.
  • Johansen S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12, pp. 231-254
  • Kırca, M., Canbay, Ş., Pirali, K., (2020). Is relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent? Resources Policy, 69, pp.1-9.
  • Kibritcioglu A., “Türkiye’de Akaryakıt Ürünü Fiyat Gelişmelerive Enflasyon: Yeni Bulgular”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Tartışma Metinleri, 1999
  • Kilian, L. (2009). ‘Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market’, American Economic Review, 99, 1053–69.
  • Kilian, L. (2008). ‘A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries’, Journal of the European Economic Association, 6, 78-121.
  • Krugman, P. (1983). Oil shocks and exchange rate dynamics. In: Frenkel JA (ed) In exchange rate and international economics. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
  • Lardic A., Mignon V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics (30), 847-85
  • Lee. J., Strazicich M. C. (2003) Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4):1082-1089.
  • Lee, K., Ni, S., Ratti, R. A. (1995). Oil shocks and the economy: the role of price variability. Energy Journal 16, 39-56.
  • Leung, G. C. K. (2010). China’s oil use, 1990-2008. Energy Policy 38 (2): 932-944
  • Lilien, D. (1982), “Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy 90: 777-793.
  • Mendoza O., Vera D. (2010). The Asymmetric Effects of Oil priceshocs on the oil exporting economy. Cuadernos de Economia (47), 3-13
  • Morana C. (2017). Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from Euro area. Economic Modelling (64). 82-96.
  • Mork K. A. (1989). Oil and macroeconomywhen prices go up and down:an extension of Hamilton’s results. Journal of Political Economy 97, 740-744.
  • Mork K. A.(1994). Business cycles and oil market. Energy Journal, 15(S), 15-38.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), pp. 1979–1990. doi: 10.1080/00036840500278103.
  • Johansen, S., (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, pp. 231–254.
  • Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models( Oxford:Oxford University Press).
  • Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration withapplications to the demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52, pp. 169–210.
  • Nkoro E., Uko A. K. (2016). Autoreggressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique. Journal of statistical and Econometric Methods, 5, 4, pp. 63-91.
  • Özlale, Ü. & Karakurt, A. (2012). Türkiye’de tasarruf açığının nedenleri ve kapatılması için politika önerileri, Bankacılar Dergisi TBB, 83, ss. 1-33
  • Pesaran, M.H., Pesaran B. (1997). Working with microfit 4.0: Interactive econometic analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. in S. Strom (eds), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press
  • Pesaran M. H., Shin Y, Smith J.R, (2001). Bound Testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics,16, pp.289-326.
  • Philip P., C., B., Perron, P., P. (1988). Testing for unit root in time series regression. Biometrica, 75, 335-346.
  • Rasche R.H., Tatom J. A. (1981). Energy price shocks, aggregate supply, and monetary policy: theory and international evidence. In: Brunner, K., Meltzer, A.H. (Eds), Supply Shocks, Incentives and National Wealth, Carnegie-Roschester conference Series on Public Policy, 14, North Holland, Amsterdam.
  • Rogoff K. (2005). Oil and the global economy. International Energy Forum Meeting. Riyadh, November 19.
  • Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H. (1994). Monetary policy matters. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 75–88.
  • Shimul, S. N., Grant, J. P., Abdullah, S. M., & Siddiqua, S. (2009). An Examination of Fdi and Growth Nexus in Bangladesh: Engle Granger and Bound Testing Cointegration Approach. BRAC University Journal, 1(1), 69–76.
  • OPEC (2018). Annual Statistical Bulletin, 53rd Edition. Retrieved from: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB%202018.pdf.
  • Sadeghi, A., (2017). Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries: Does the Size of Government Matter?, IMF Working Papers 2017/287, International Monetary Fund.
  • Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S. A., Mahmood, H., & Arouri, M. (2013). Does financial development reduce CO2 emissions in Malaysian economy? A time series analysis. Economic Modelling, 35, 145-152.
  • Sotoudeh, M. A. L. I., & Worthington, A. C. (2017). Nonlinear Effects of Oil Prices on Consumer Prices : A Comparative Study of Net Oil Consuming and Producing Countries, 9, 57–79.
  • Tausif, R., Haque M.,I. & Khan, M.R. (2023). Effect of oil price shocks on output and prices: evidence from Saudi Arabia. Environmental Science and Pollution Results, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30041-6
  • Torul O., Alper E., C. (2010), Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 6, 1-16
  • Van Dinh, D., (2022). Crude oil price fluctuation and economic growth : ARDL model approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 12 (4), S. 240 – 248.
  • Yildirim, N., Ozcelebi, O., & Ozkan, S. O. (2015). Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importer, Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business 33(1), 11–35.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ev Ekonomisi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Hülya DENİZ KARAKOYUN 0000-0001-6407-4269

Ferda KARAGÖZ ÖZENÇ 0000-0001-7573-7638

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 21 Ekim 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA DENİZ KARAKOYUN, H., & KARAGÖZ ÖZENÇ, F. (2023). Do Oil Prices Still Matter for Macroeconomic Performance? An ARDL Model for Turkey. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(2), 279-300.

The sole purpose of JOEEP is to be a prestigious journal which contributes to scientific knowledge. In order to keep this purpose, JOEEP, adopts and follows the publication policies of world’s prestigious scientific journals. All original and qualified works which may contribute to the scientific knowledge, are evaluated through a rigorous editorial and peer review process. Hereby, JOEEP is a peer reviewed and scientific journal. It strictly depends on the scientific principles, rules and ethical framework that are required to this qualification.

JOEEP is published as two issues per year June and December and all publication policies and processes are conducted according to the international standards. JOEEP accepts and publishes the research articles in the fields of economics, political economy, fiscal economics, applied economics, business economics, labour economics and econometrics. JOEEP, without depending on any institution or organization, is a non-profit journal that has an International Editorial Board specialist on their fields. All “Publication Process” and “Writing Guidelines” are explained in the related title and it is expected from authors to Show a complete match to the rules. JOEEP is an open Access journal.