Araştırma Makalesi
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The Effect of Policy Rate and Inflation Rate on the Credit Volume: 2003-2023 The Case Of Turkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 424 - 432, 30.12.2023

Öz

In the study, the long-term relationship between policy interest, inflation and bank deposits and credit volume was analyzed using the ARDL Bounds Test method for the period 2003Q1-2023Q6 within the scope of monetary policy practices in the Turkish economy. According to the analysis results of the ARDL bounds test applied to determine the existence of a cointegrated relationship between the relevant variables; It has been determined that if the coefficients of the policy interest rate and inflation rate variables take negative values, the relevant variables adversely affect the bank loans variable, and if the coefficients of bank deposits take positive values, the relevant variable affects deposit banks loans positively, and there is a long-term cointegrated relationship between the variables. In other words, a 1% increase in bank deposits increases the loan volume by 0.94%, while a 1% increase in the inflation rate and policy interest rate reduces the loan volume by 0.75% and 0.32%, respectively. In addition, with VAR Granger causality analysis, a mutual causality relationship between banking deposits and loans was determined, and it was concluded that deposits and loans affect the inflation variable unidirectionally.

Kaynakça

  • Adeniyi, A. M., Kayode, A. K., Sakirat, S. O., & Olamide, F. T. (2018). Monetary policy and bank credit in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto Approach. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 14(5).
  • Aydın, B., & Igan, D. (2012). Bank lending in Turkey: Effects of monetary and fiscal policies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48(5), 78-104.
  • Benavides-Perales, G., Téllez-León, I. E., & Venegas-Martínez, F. (2015). Transfer of the Reference Rate for Lending and Deposit Rates: The Case of Mexico, 1995-2013. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 10(7).
  • Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48.
  • Boukhatem, J., & Djelassi, M. (2022). The bank-lending channel of monetary policy transmission in a dual banking system: empirical evidence from panel VAR modeling. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2107765.
  • Caetité, A. N., de Sousa, A. F., Savóia, J. R. F., Bucchi, W. W., & Garcia, F. G. (2022). Does the deposit channel of monetary policy work in a high-interest rate environment?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 106639.
  • Dang, V. D. (2022). Bank funding, market power, and the bank liquidity creation channel of monetary policy. Research in International Business and Finance, 59, 101531.
  • Doğanalp, N. (2022). Parasal aktarım mekanizması kanallarından faiz ve kredi kanalının var yöntemiyle incelenmesi: Türkiye örneği. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, (33), 138-144.
  • Drechsler, I., Savov, A., & Schnabl, P. (2017). The deposits channel of monetary policy. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4), 1819-1876.
  • Erdoğan, S., & Yıldırım, D. Ç. (2009). Türkiye’de faiz kanalı ile parasal aktarım mekanizması. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 4(2), 57-72.
  • Fabiani, A., Piñeros, M. L., Peydró, J. L., & Soto, P. E. (2022). Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy. Journal of International Economics, 103677.
  • Fungáčová, Z., Kerola, E., & Weill, L. (2022). Does bank efficiency affect the bank lending channel in China?. Emerging Markets Review, 100964.
  • Ibarra, R. (2016). How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico?. Applied Economics, 48(36), 3462-3484.
  • Karahan, P., & Uslu, N. Ç. (2016, August). Kredi hacmi ile cari açık arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için dinamik bir analiz. In EconWorld2016 Congress (pp. 10-12).
  • Kolçak, M., Akyol, H., & Ağırkaya, M. B. (2018). Tüketici Kredilerini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Saptanması: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Global Journal of Economics and Business Studies, 7(13), 21-33.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1995). Symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 3-10.
  • Nguyen, T. P., & Dinh, T. T. H. (2022). The role of bank capital on the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission: An application of marginal analysis approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2035044.
  • Nilsen, J. H. (2002). Trade credit and the bank lending channel. Journal of Money, credit and Banking, 226-253.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Sá, A. I., & Jorge, J. (2019). Does the deposits channel work under a low interest rate environment?. Economics Letters, 185, 108736.
  • Said, F. F., & Bashir, M. A. (2018). The Role of the Bank Lending Channel of the Monetary Policy on Bank Behavior. International Journal of Economics & Management, 12(2).
  • Schaffer, M., & Segev, N. (2022). The deposits channel revisited. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37(2), 450-458.
  • Skikiewicz, R. (2013). Interest rates and changes in zloty deposits of households in Poland. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 13(1), 95.
  • Toro, G. J., & Emmanuel, O. G. (2020). Effect Of Monetary Polıcy On The Performance Of Listed Deposit Money Banks In Nigeria. Annals of the University of Oradea, Economic Science Series, 29.
  • Zeynalova, A. (2023). The impact of credit volume on money supply and economic growth in Azerbaijan: an econometric analysis. Multidisciplinary Science Journal, 6(1), 2024004-2024004.

Bankacılık Sisteminde Politika Faizi ve Enflasyonun Kredi Kanalı Üzerindeki Etkisi: 2003-2023 Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 424 - 432, 30.12.2023

Öz

Çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde para politikası uygulamaları kapsamında 2003Q1-2023Q6 dönemi için, politika faizi, enflasyon ve banka mevduatlarının kredi hacmi ile arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ARDL Sınır Testi yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. İlgili değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşik ilişkinin varlığının tespiti amacıyla uygulanan ARDL sınır testi analiz sonuçlarına göre; politika faiz oranı ve enflasyon oranı değişkenlerinin katsayılarının negatif değer almaları ilgili değişkenlerin banka kredileri değişkenini ters yönde etkilediğini, banka mevduatlarının katsayısının pozitif değer alması ise ilgili değişkenin mevduat bankaları kredilerini pozitif yönde etkilediğini ve değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşik bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Diğer bir ifade ile banka mevduatlarında ki %1’lik bir artış kredi hacmini %0,94 arttırırken, enflasyon oranı ve politika faiz oranında ki %1’lik bir artış kredi hacmini sırasıyla, %0,75 ve %0,32 azaltmaktadır. Ayrıca VAR Granger nedensellik analizi ile bankacılık mevduatları ile krediler arasında karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş, mevduat ve kredilerinde enflasyon değişkenini tek yönlü etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Adeniyi, A. M., Kayode, A. K., Sakirat, S. O., & Olamide, F. T. (2018). Monetary policy and bank credit in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto Approach. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 14(5).
  • Aydın, B., & Igan, D. (2012). Bank lending in Turkey: Effects of monetary and fiscal policies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48(5), 78-104.
  • Benavides-Perales, G., Téllez-León, I. E., & Venegas-Martínez, F. (2015). Transfer of the Reference Rate for Lending and Deposit Rates: The Case of Mexico, 1995-2013. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 10(7).
  • Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48.
  • Boukhatem, J., & Djelassi, M. (2022). The bank-lending channel of monetary policy transmission in a dual banking system: empirical evidence from panel VAR modeling. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2107765.
  • Caetité, A. N., de Sousa, A. F., Savóia, J. R. F., Bucchi, W. W., & Garcia, F. G. (2022). Does the deposit channel of monetary policy work in a high-interest rate environment?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 106639.
  • Dang, V. D. (2022). Bank funding, market power, and the bank liquidity creation channel of monetary policy. Research in International Business and Finance, 59, 101531.
  • Doğanalp, N. (2022). Parasal aktarım mekanizması kanallarından faiz ve kredi kanalının var yöntemiyle incelenmesi: Türkiye örneği. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, (33), 138-144.
  • Drechsler, I., Savov, A., & Schnabl, P. (2017). The deposits channel of monetary policy. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4), 1819-1876.
  • Erdoğan, S., & Yıldırım, D. Ç. (2009). Türkiye’de faiz kanalı ile parasal aktarım mekanizması. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 4(2), 57-72.
  • Fabiani, A., Piñeros, M. L., Peydró, J. L., & Soto, P. E. (2022). Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy. Journal of International Economics, 103677.
  • Fungáčová, Z., Kerola, E., & Weill, L. (2022). Does bank efficiency affect the bank lending channel in China?. Emerging Markets Review, 100964.
  • Ibarra, R. (2016). How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico?. Applied Economics, 48(36), 3462-3484.
  • Karahan, P., & Uslu, N. Ç. (2016, August). Kredi hacmi ile cari açık arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için dinamik bir analiz. In EconWorld2016 Congress (pp. 10-12).
  • Kolçak, M., Akyol, H., & Ağırkaya, M. B. (2018). Tüketici Kredilerini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Saptanması: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Global Journal of Economics and Business Studies, 7(13), 21-33.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1995). Symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 3-10.
  • Nguyen, T. P., & Dinh, T. T. H. (2022). The role of bank capital on the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission: An application of marginal analysis approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2035044.
  • Nilsen, J. H. (2002). Trade credit and the bank lending channel. Journal of Money, credit and Banking, 226-253.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Sá, A. I., & Jorge, J. (2019). Does the deposits channel work under a low interest rate environment?. Economics Letters, 185, 108736.
  • Said, F. F., & Bashir, M. A. (2018). The Role of the Bank Lending Channel of the Monetary Policy on Bank Behavior. International Journal of Economics & Management, 12(2).
  • Schaffer, M., & Segev, N. (2022). The deposits channel revisited. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37(2), 450-458.
  • Skikiewicz, R. (2013). Interest rates and changes in zloty deposits of households in Poland. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 13(1), 95.
  • Toro, G. J., & Emmanuel, O. G. (2020). Effect Of Monetary Polıcy On The Performance Of Listed Deposit Money Banks In Nigeria. Annals of the University of Oradea, Economic Science Series, 29.
  • Zeynalova, A. (2023). The impact of credit volume on money supply and economic growth in Azerbaijan: an econometric analysis. Multidisciplinary Science Journal, 6(1), 2024004-2024004.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Finansal Kurumlar, Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Serkan VARSAK 0000-0002-5894-1490

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 28 Ekim 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA VARSAK, S. (2023). The Effect of Policy Rate and Inflation Rate on the Credit Volume: 2003-2023 The Case Of Turkiye. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(2), 424-432.

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