Jeopolitik Risklerin Kamu Maliyesindeki Yansımaları: Türkiye Üzerine Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 400 - 411, 30.12.2024

Ahmet Köstekçi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'de jeopolitik risk ile kamu maliyesi göstergeleri arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Araştırma, 2006:1 ile 2024:7 dönemine ilişkin aylık verileri kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada Fourier ADF birim kök testiyle değişkenlerin durağanlık seviyeleri belirlendikten sonra, Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, jeopolitik risk ve iç borçlanma değişkenleri arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koyarken aynı zamanda jeopolitik riskten bütçe dengesi, kamu harcamaları, vergi gelirleri, dış borçlanma ve iç borç faiz ödemeleri değişkenlerine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkilerinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, jeopolitik risklerin ulusal mali yapı üzerinde belirleyici olduğunu ve mali sürdürülebilirliği tehdit eden dinamikler içerdiğini açıkça göstermektedir. Türkiye’de jeopolitik risklerin kamu maliyesi üzerindeki etkileri dikkate alındığında, kamu maliyesine esneklik kazandırmak için politika yapıcılarının jeopolitik risk analizleri ve kamu mali yönetim süreçlerinin entegrasyonunu sağlamalarının bir gereklilik olduğu belirtilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jeopolitik risk, Kamu maliyesi, Fourier nedensellik testi, Türkiye

The Implications of Geopolitical Risks on Public Finance: A Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis on Türkiye

Öz

This study aims to investigate the relationship between geopolitical risk and public finance indicators in Türkiye. The study is based on monthly data between 2006:1 and July 2024:7. Following the Fourier ADF unit root test to determine the stationarity levels of the variables, the causal relationships between the variables are analyzed using the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test. The findings indicate that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between geopolitical risk and domestic borrowing variables, while there is a unidirectional causality relations from geopolitical risk to budget balance, public expenditures, tax revenues, external debt, and interest payments on domestic debt variables. These results clearly show that geopolitical risks can be determinative on the national fiscal structure and have dynamics that threaten fiscal stability. Considering the effects of geopolitical risks on public finances in Türkiye, it can be stated that policy makers should ensure the integration of geopolitical risk analysis and public financial management processes in order to provide flexibility to public finances.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geopolitical risk, Public finances, Fourier Causality test, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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