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Refah Hasadı: Gıda İhracatının Tarımsal Büyüme Üzerindeki Uzun Dönem Etkisi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 493 - 504

Muhammed Benli

Öz

Bu çalışma, gıda ihracatının tarımsal katma değer üzerindeki etkisini gelişmekte olan ülkeler için incelemektedir. 2000-2019 dönemi panel verisi kullanılarak PMG, AMG ve CCE-MG tahmincileri ile uzun dönem ilişkiler analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, gıda ihracatının tarımsal katma değeri artırdığını ancak kişi başına düşen gelirin tarımın ekonomideki payını azalttığını göstermektedir. Mekanizasyonun etkisi modelleme yöntemlerine bağlı olarak değişirken, eğitim seviyesinin artması tarımdan sanayi ve hizmet sektörlerine iş gücü kaymasını hızlandırmaktadır. Sonuçlar, ihracata dayalı tarım politikalarının ekonomik büyümeyi destekleyebileceğini ancak gıda güvenliğiyle dengelenmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir. Tarımda verimlilik artırıcı eğitim programları ve küçük çiftçilerin teknolojiye erişimi desteklenmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gıda İhracatı Tarımsal Katma Değer PMG AMG CCE-MG

Kaynakça

  • Aragie, E., Balié, J., Morales, C., & Pauw, K. (2023). Synergies and trade-offs between agricultural export promotion and food security: Evidence from African economies. World Development, 172, 106368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106368
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8
  • Binswanger, H. P., & Townsend, R. (2000). The growth performance of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 82(5), 1075-1086. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1244235
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Dawson, P. J. (2005). Agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries. Agricultural Economics, 33(2), 145-152. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2005.00358.x
  • De Janvry, A., & Sadoulet, E. (2010). Agricultural growth and poverty reduction: Additional evidence World Bank Research Observer, 25(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkp015
  • Diao, X., Hazell, P., & Thurlow, J. (2010). The role of agriculture in African development. World Development, 38(10), 1375-1383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.06.011
  • Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. MPRA Paper No. 17692. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17870/
  • El Weriemmi, M., & Bakari, S. (2024). The impact of agricultural exports on economic growth: New evidence from low income countries. MPRA Paper No. 121631. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121631/
  • Erdinç, Z., & Aydınbaş, G. (2023). Yapısal kırılmalar dahilinde tarımsal ürün ihracatı ile iktisadi büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 7(2), 552-564. https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1373874
  • Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12(1-2), 59-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(83)90031-7
  • Fleming, D. A., & Abler, D. G. (2013). Does agricultural trade affect productivity? Evidence from Chilean farms. Food Policy, 41, 11-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.04.004
  • Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.
  • Henneberry, S. R., & Khan, M. E. (2014). An analysis of the linkage between agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan. In Cross-National and Cross-Cultural Issues in Food Marketing (pp. 13-29). Routledge.
  • Ijirshar, V. U. (2015). The empirical analysis of agricultural exports and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 7(3), 113-122.
  • Im K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogenous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
  • Mamba, E., & Ali, E. (2022). Do agricultural exports enhance agricultural (economic) growth? Lessons from ECOWAS countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 63, 257-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.10.003
  • Matsuyama, K. (1992). Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth. Journal of Economic Theory, 58(2), 317-334. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(92)90057-O
  • Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653–670. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1653
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597-625. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01875-7
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692.x
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Tosetti, E. (2011). Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 161(2), 182-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.12.003
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S71-S102.
  • Saghaian, S., Mohammadi, H., & Mohammadi, M. (2022). The effects of agricultural product exports on environmental quality. Sustainability, 14(21), 13857. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142113857
  • Sanjuán‐López, A. I., & Dawson, P. J. (2010). Agricultural exports and economic growth in developing countries: A panel cointegration approach. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(3), 565-583. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2010.00257.x
  • Shah, S. W. A., Haq, M. A., & Farooq, R. M. A. (2015). Agricultural export and economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. Public Policy and Administration Research, 5(8), 88-96.
  • Verter, N., & Bečvářová, V. (2016). The impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in Nigeria. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 64(2), 691-700. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664020691
  • Westerlund, J. (2005). New simple tests for panel cointegration. Econometric Reviews, 24, 297–316. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930500243019
  • Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.967

Harvesting Prosperity: The Long-Run Impact of Food Exports on Agricultural Growth

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 493 - 504

Muhammed Benli

Öz

This study examines the impact of food exports on agricultural value-added in developing economies. Using panel data from 2000-2019, long-run relationships are analyzed via PMG, AMG, and CCE-MG estimators. Results confirm that food exports enhance agricultural value-added, while higher GDP per capita reduces agriculture’s share in GDP, reflecting structural transformation. The impact of mechanization varies, while higher education levels accelerate labor shifts toward industry and services. Findings suggest that export-driven agricultural policies can boost economic growth but must balance food security concerns. Supporting smallholder access to technology and agricultural vocational training is crucial for sustainable development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Food Exports Agricultural Value Added PMG AMG CCE-MG

Kaynakça

  • Aragie, E., Balié, J., Morales, C., & Pauw, K. (2023). Synergies and trade-offs between agricultural export promotion and food security: Evidence from African economies. World Development, 172, 106368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106368
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8
  • Binswanger, H. P., & Townsend, R. (2000). The growth performance of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 82(5), 1075-1086. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1244235
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Dawson, P. J. (2005). Agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries. Agricultural Economics, 33(2), 145-152. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2005.00358.x
  • De Janvry, A., & Sadoulet, E. (2010). Agricultural growth and poverty reduction: Additional evidence World Bank Research Observer, 25(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkp015
  • Diao, X., Hazell, P., & Thurlow, J. (2010). The role of agriculture in African development. World Development, 38(10), 1375-1383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.06.011
  • Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. MPRA Paper No. 17692. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17870/
  • El Weriemmi, M., & Bakari, S. (2024). The impact of agricultural exports on economic growth: New evidence from low income countries. MPRA Paper No. 121631. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121631/
  • Erdinç, Z., & Aydınbaş, G. (2023). Yapısal kırılmalar dahilinde tarımsal ürün ihracatı ile iktisadi büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 7(2), 552-564. https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1373874
  • Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12(1-2), 59-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(83)90031-7
  • Fleming, D. A., & Abler, D. G. (2013). Does agricultural trade affect productivity? Evidence from Chilean farms. Food Policy, 41, 11-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.04.004
  • Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.
  • Henneberry, S. R., & Khan, M. E. (2014). An analysis of the linkage between agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan. In Cross-National and Cross-Cultural Issues in Food Marketing (pp. 13-29). Routledge.
  • Ijirshar, V. U. (2015). The empirical analysis of agricultural exports and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 7(3), 113-122.
  • Im K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogenous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
  • Mamba, E., & Ali, E. (2022). Do agricultural exports enhance agricultural (economic) growth? Lessons from ECOWAS countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 63, 257-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.10.003
  • Matsuyama, K. (1992). Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth. Journal of Economic Theory, 58(2), 317-334. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(92)90057-O
  • Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653–670. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1653
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597-625. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01875-7
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692.x
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Tosetti, E. (2011). Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 161(2), 182-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.12.003
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S71-S102.
  • Saghaian, S., Mohammadi, H., & Mohammadi, M. (2022). The effects of agricultural product exports on environmental quality. Sustainability, 14(21), 13857. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142113857
  • Sanjuán‐López, A. I., & Dawson, P. J. (2010). Agricultural exports and economic growth in developing countries: A panel cointegration approach. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(3), 565-583. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2010.00257.x
  • Shah, S. W. A., Haq, M. A., & Farooq, R. M. A. (2015). Agricultural export and economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. Public Policy and Administration Research, 5(8), 88-96.
  • Verter, N., & Bečvářová, V. (2016). The impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in Nigeria. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 64(2), 691-700. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664020691
  • Westerlund, J. (2005). New simple tests for panel cointegration. Econometric Reviews, 24, 297–316. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930500243019
  • Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.967
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Uluslararası İktisatta Bölgesel Gelişme ve Küreselleşme, Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Muhammed Benli 0000-0001-6486-8739

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Mayıs 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Şubat 2025
Kabul Tarihi 14 Mayıs 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Benli, M. (2025). Harvesting Prosperity: The Long-Run Impact of Food Exports on Agricultural Growth. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 10(1), 493-504.
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