Gelişmekte olan piyasalarda doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve ekonomik karmaşıklık ilişkisi: Panel eşbütünleşme ve CCEMG analizinden kanıtlar

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 47 - 62, 30.12.2025

Muharrem Akın Doğanay

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, gelişmekte olan piyasa ekonomileri özelinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile ülkelerin ekonomik karmaşıklık seviyesi arasındaki ilişkileri ampirik olarak test etmektir. 2001-2023 döneminde gelişmekte olan piyasa ekonomilerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırım ile ekonomik karmaşıklık arasındaki ilişki, Westerlund (2008) panel eşbütünleşme testi ve ortak ilişkili etkiler ortalama tahmincisi (CCEMG) yöntemiyle ampirik olarak incelenmektedir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki artışlar, uzun dönemde ekonomik karmaşıklığı pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Ancak bu etkinin ekonomik büyüklük açısından sınırlı olduğunu söylemek mümkündür. Anlamlı ve negatif işaretli hata düzeltme terimi, sistemin uzun dönem dengesine yakınsadığını göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, ülke bazındaki sonuçlar belirgin bir heterojenlik sergilemektedir. Brezilya ve Şili gibi ülkeler doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan olumlu yönde faydalanırken, Çin ve Tayland’da bu etki sınırlı kalmakta; Türkiye ve Polonya’da ise kurumsal ve yapısal engeller nedeniyle bir etki gözlemlenememektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan yabancı yatırım , ekonomik karmaşıklık , gelişmekte olan piyasalar , panel eşbütünleşme , ortak ilişkili etkiler ortalama tahmincisi

Etik Beyan

Yapılan bu çalışmada “Yükseköğretim Kurumları Bilimsel Araştırma ve Yayın Etiği Yönergesi” kapsamında uyulması belirtilen tüm kurallara uyulmuştur. Çalışmada Çalışma ile ilgili Etik Kurul iznine gerekecek herhangi bir veri elde edilmemiştir.

Destekleyen Kurum

Çalışma herhangi bir kurum tarafından destek almamıştır.

The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic complexity in emerging markets: Evidence from panel cointegration and CCEMG analysis

Öz

The purpose of this research is to empirically test the relationships between foreign direct investments and economic complexity of countries, specifically in emerging market economies. In this study, the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic complexity in emerging market economies over the period 2001-2023 is empirically examined using Westerlund (2008) panel cointegration test and the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) method. The findings indicated that increases in foreign direct investment positively affect economic complexity in the long run. However, this effect is limited in terms of economic size. The significant, negatively signed error correction term indicates that the system is converging to magnitude its long-run equilibrium. However, the results across countries exhibit significant heterogeneity. While countries such as Brazil and Chile benefit positively from foreign direct investment, this effect is limited in China and Thailand, and no effect is observed in Türkiye and Poland due to institutional and structural obstacles.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign direct investment , economic complexity , emerging markets , panel cointegration , common correlated effects mean group

Etik Beyan

In this study, all the rules specified in the “Higher Education Institutions Scientific Research and Publication Ethics Directive” were followed. No data was obtained in the study that would require Ethics Committee permission.

Destekleyen Kurum

The study did not receive support from any institution.

Kaynakça

• Aitken, B.J. & Harrison, A.E. (1999). Do domestic firms benefit from direct foreign investment? Evidence from Venezuela. American Economic Review, 89(3), 605-618. doi:10.1257/aer.89.3.605
• Antonietti, R., & Franco, C. (2021). From FDI to economic complexity: A panel Granger causality analysis. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 56, 225-239. doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2020.11.001
• Aurangzeb, Z., & Stengos, T. (2014). The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a dualistic growth framework: A smooth coefficient semi-parametric approach. Borsa Istanbul Review, 14(3), 133-144. doi:10.1016/j.bir.2014.06.004
• Boleti, E., Garas, A., Kyriakou, A., & Lapatinas, A. (2021). Economic complexity and environmental performance: Evidence from a world sample. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 26(3), 251-270. doi:10.1007/s10666-021-09750-0
• Breusch, T.S., & Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• Chizema, D. (2025). The impact of foreign direct investment on economic development in South Asia and Southeastern Asia. Economies, 13(6), 157. doi:10.3390/economies13060157
• Doru, Ö. (2022). Türkiye’de ekonomik karmaşıklık indeksi (eci) ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi. Artuklu Kaime Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(2), 235-251. doi:10.55119/artuklu.1200656
• Doytch, N., & Narayan, S. (2016). Does FDI influence renewable energy consumption? An analysis of sectoral FDI impact on renewable and non-renewable industrial energy consumption. Energy Economics, 54, 291-301.
• Essandoh, O.K., Islam, M., & Kakinaka, M. (2020). Linking international trade and foreign direct investment to CO2 emissions: any differences between developed and developing countries? Science of the Total Environment, 712, 136437. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136437
• Gómez-Zaldívar, M., Llamosas-Rosas, I., & Gómez-Zaldívar, F. (2021). The relationship between economic complexity and the pattern of foreign direct investment flows among Mexican states. Review of Regional Studies, 51(1). doi:10.52324/001c.21211
• Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C.A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., & Simoes, A. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Mit Press. doi:10.7551/mitpress/9647.001.0001
• Hidalgo, C.A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575. doi:10.1073/pnas.0900943106
• Javorcik, B.S., Lo Turco, A., & Maggioni, D. (2018). New and improved: Does FDI boost production complexity in host countries? The Economic Journal, 128(614), 2507-2537. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12530
• Jebli, M., Youssef, S., & Apergis, N. (2019). The dynamic linkage between renewable energy, tourism, CO2 emissions, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and trade. Latin American Economic Review, 28(1), 1-19. doi:10.1186/s40503-019-0063-7
• Karabıyık, C. (2021). Ekonomik kompleksite ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ilişkisi: BRICS-T ülkeleri üzerine bir panel veri analizi. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 16(63), 1133-1149. doi:10.19168/jyasar.916017
• Kömürcüoğlu, Ö.F., & Değer, M.K. (2022). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile çevre kirliliği ilişkisi: Seçilmiş ülke grupları üzerine panel veri analizleri. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 51, 371-381.
• Nguea, S.M. (2024). Does demographic dividend enhance economic complexity: The mediating effect of human capital, ICT, and foreign direct investment. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(4), 19678-19699. doi:10.1007/s13132-024-01908-x
• Nguéda, R.D.N., & Kelly, A.M. (2022). The nexus between economic complexity and foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics, 14(2), 41-52. doi:10.9734/SAJSSE/2022/v14i230377
• Nguyen, C. ., & Su, T.D. (2021). Financing the economy: The multidimensional influences of financial development on economic complexity. Journal of International Development, 33(4), 644-684. doi:10.1002/jid.3541
• Okombi, I.F., & Tsinguia-Kenfack, B.F. (2023). Foreign direct investment and economic complexity in developing countries: does public expenditure on education matter? SN Business & Economics, 4(1), 14. doi:10.1007/s43546-023-00614-1
• Olasehinde‐Williams, G., & Oshodi, A.F. (2021). Can Africa raise export competitiveness through economic complexity? Evidence from (non)‐parametric panel techniques. African Development Review, 33(3), 426-438.
• Osinubi, T.T., & Ajide, F.M. (2022). Foreign direct investment and economic complexity in emerging economies. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(2), 259-270. doi:10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss2.art9
• Pao, H.T., & Tsai, C.M. (2011). Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI and GDP: Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, and China) countries. Energy, 36(1), 685-693. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2010.09.041
• Pesaran, M.H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
• Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, University of Cambridge. doi:10.17863/CAM.5113
• Pesaran, M.H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692.x
• Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. doi:10.1002/jae.951
• Ranjbar, O., & Rassekh, F. (2022). Does economic complexity influence the efficacy of foreign direct investment? An empirical inquiry. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 31(6), 894-910. doi:10.1080/09638199.2022.2036792
• Stern, N., Collier, P., & Dollar, D. (2002). Globalization, growth and poverty. World Bank Policy Research Report, New York: Oxford University Press.
• The Growth Lab at Harvard University (2024). Growth projections and complexity rankings. doi:10.7910/DVN/XTAQMC
• The World Bank (2024). World Development Indicator. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
• UNCTAD (2006). World Investment Report 2006: FDI from Developing and Transition Economies: Implications for Development. United Nation. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2006_en.pdf
• Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233. doi:10.1002/jae.967