Bank Al-Maghrib ve Fas Politika Bileşimi: Üç Kriz Döneminde Parasal Tepki (2008–2025)

Öz

Gelişmekte olan bir ekonominin merkez bankası, yirmi yıldan kısa bir sürede nitelik bakımından birbirinden derinlemesine farklı üç şokla karşılaştığında politika aracını nasıl ayarlar? Bu çalışma, Bank Al-Maghrib’in parasal tepki fonksiyonunu ve Fas’ın politika bileşimini (policy mix) 2008–2009 finansal krizi, 2020–2021 pandemisi ve 2022–2023 enflasyon şoku boyunca incelemektedir. 2008–2025 dönemine ait çeyreklik verilerle, değişen varyansa ve otokorelasyona karşı tutarlı çıkarım kullanılarak tahmin edilen yumuşatılmış bir Taylor kuralı, normatif bir yargı olarak değil, parasal davranışı okumaya yönelik bir çerçeve olarak kullanılmış; politika bileşiminin betimsel bir okumasıyla karşılaştırılmış ve çeşitli sağlamlık sınamalarıyla desteklenmiştir. Üç bulgu öne çıkmaktadır. İlk olarak, politika faizi çok güçlü bir kademelilikle (yumuşatma katsayısı 0,95’e yakındır) belirginleşmekte olup bu, öngörülebilirlik tercihiyle tutarlıdır. İkinci olarak, enflasyon ve iktisadi faaliyetin her ikisi de önemlidir; ancak ağırlıkları kriz rejimine bağlıdır ve 2022–2023 dönemi gerçek bir rejim değişimi olarak görünmektedir. Üçüncü olarak, uzun dönem enflasyon katsayısı (yaklaşık 1,23) Taylor ilkesiyle uyumlu kalmakla birlikte kesin bir sonuca izin vermemektedir; zira güven aralığı birim değeri rahatça kapsamaktadır. Analiz, Fas’ın politika bileşiminin kurumsallaşmış bir eşgüdümden çok, her krizin niteliğine göre değişen ve iki duruşun pragmatik bir eklemlenmesini yansıttığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bununla birlikte, fiyat endeksinin 2022 öncesinde yalnızca kısmen doğrulanmış olması temkinli bir okumayı gerektirmektedir. Fas örneğinin ötesinde çalışma, gelişmekte olan piyasa ekonomilerinde para politikasının, bağlayıcı bilgi ve kurumsal kısıtlar altında kural ile yargı arasında nasıl işlediğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• yumuşatılmış Taylor kuralı
• faiz yumuşatma
• para–maliye politika bileşimi
• Bank Al-Maghrib (Fas);
• gelişmekte olan ekonomiler

Bank Al-Maghrib and the Moroccan Policy Mix: Monetary Reaction across Three Crises (2008–2025)

Öz

How does the central bank of an emerging economy adjust its policy instrument when, in less than two decades, it faces three shocks of profoundly different kinds? This article examines the monetary reaction function of Bank Al-Maghrib and the configuration of the Moroccan policy mix across the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the 2020–2021 pandemic and the 2022–2023 inflationary shock. A smoothed Taylor rule, estimated on quarterly data from 2008 to 2025 with heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent inference, is used not as a normative verdict but as a reading grid for monetary behaviour; it is set against a descriptive reading of the policy mix and complemented by several robustness checks. Three features stand out. First, the policy rate is marked by very strong gradualism (the smoothing coefficient is close to 0.95), consistent with a preference for predictability. Second, inflation and activity both matter, but their weight depends on the crisis regime, and the 2022–2023 sequence appears as a genuine regime change. Third, the long-run inflation coefficient (about 1.23) remains compatible with the Taylor principle without allowing a firm conclusion, since its confidence interval comfortably spans unity. The analysis suggests that the Moroccan policy mix reflects less an institutionalised coordination than a pragmatic articulation of the two stances, varying with the nature of each crisis. The only partial validation of the price index before 2022 nonetheless calls for a cautious reading. Beyond the Moroccan case, the study illustrates how emerging-market monetary policy operates between rule and judgement under binding informational and institutional constraints.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• smoothed Taylor rule
• interest-rate smoothing
• monetary–fiscal policy mix
• Bank Al-Maghrib (Morocco);
• emerging economies

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