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The Causal Relationship Between Tax Revenues and Economic Growth in OECD Countries

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 599 - 610, 30.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.982678

Öz

Governments can implement various policies to achieve the economic goals they want to achieve. Among the policies they most often apply to are monetary and fiscal policies. Among fiscal policies, taxes are an important policy tool. Tax revenues are one of the fiscal policy tools that policymakers apply to achieve the goal of economic growth. Changes in tax revenues can directly or indirectly affect economic growth through various channels. In this study, randomly selected in 9 OECD countries (France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Turkey and United Kingdom) with annual data from the period 2010-2019, were investigated to find the relationship between tax revenues and economic growth using panel causality test. As a result of the panel causality test, it was determined that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from tax revenues to economic growth.

Kaynakça

  • Abata, M. A., Kehinde, J. S. & Bolarinwa, S. A. (2012). Fiscal/monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria: A theoretical exploration. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 1(5), pp. 75-88.
  • Ahmad, S., Sial, M. H. & Ahmad, N. (2018). Indirect taxes and economic growth: An empirical analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 28(1), pp. 65-81.
  • Anastassiou, T. & Dritsaki, C. (2005). Tax revenues and economic growth: An empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Journal of Social Sciences, 1(2), pp. 99-104. https://doi.org/10.3844/jssp.2005.99.104
  • Andrašıć, J., Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., Milenković, N. & Pjanić, M. (2018). Econometric modelling of tax impact on economic growth: Panel evidence from OECD countries. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 52(4), pp. 211-226. https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/52.4.18.14
  • Atems, B. (2015). Another look at tax policy and state economic growth: The long-run and short-run of it. Economics Letters, 127(C), pp. 64-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.12.035
  • Baltagi, B. H. & Kao, C. (2000). Nonstationary panels, cointegration in panels and dynamic panels: A survey. Center for Policy Research Working Papers, No. 16. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1808022
  • Barro, R. J. (1996). Institutions and growth, an introductory essay. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), pp. 145-148.
  • Benos, N. (2009). Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from EU countries. MPRA Paper, No. 19174.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and fixed effects model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), pp. 533-549. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297285
  • Boumahdi, R. & Thomas, A. (1991). Testing for unit roots using panel data: Application to the French stock market efficiency. Economic Letters, 37(1), pp. 77-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(91)90246-H
  • Breitung, J. & Meyer, W. (1994). Testing for unit roots in panel data: Are wages on different bargaining levels cointegrated. Applied Economics, 26(4), pp. 353-361. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849400000081
  • Breitung, J. (2000). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, pp. 161-177. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15006-6
  • Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), pp. 249-272. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00048-6
  • Chugunov, I. Y. & Pasichnyi, M. D. (2018). Fiscal policy for economic development. Scientific Bulletin of Polissia, 1(13), pp. 54-61. https://doi.org/10.25140/2410-9576-2018-1-1(13)-54-61
  • Ebimobowei, A. (2010). The relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in Nigeria (1991-2005). International Journal of Economic Development Research and Investment, 1(2), pp. 37-47.
  • El-Khouri, S. (2002). Fiscal policy and macroeconomic management. Wong, C-H., Khan, M. S. & Nsouli, S. M. (eds). Macroeconomic management: Programs and policy. Washington: International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589060944.071
  • Gale, W. G. & Samwick, A. (2014). Effects of income tax changes on economic growth. Economic Studies at Brookings. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2494468
  • Hadri, K. (1999). Testing the null hypothesis of stationary against the alternative of a unit root in panel data with serially correlated errors. Working Papers, No. 5.
  • Hakim, T. A. (2020). Direct versus indirect taxes: Impact on economic growth and total tax revenue. International Journal of Financial Research, 11(2), pp. 146-153. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n2p146
  • Harris, R. & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. West Sussex: John Wiley.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), pp. 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
  • Juhandi, N., Fahlevi, M. & Setiadi, S. (2019). Tax policy and fiscal consolidation on corporate income tax. Journal of Reseacrh in Business, Management and Accounting, 1(1), pp. 21-33.
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), pp. 1-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
  • Koch, S. F., Schoeman, N. J. & Van Tonder, J. J. (2005). Economic growth and the structure of taxes in South Africa: 1960-2002. South African Journal of Economics, 73(2), pp. 190-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2005.00013.x
  • Korkmaz, S., Yılgor, M. & Aksoy, F. (2019). The impact of direct and indirect taxes on the growth of the Turkish economy. Public Sector Economics, 43(3), pp. 311-323. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.43.3.5
  • Lee, Y. & Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax structure and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5-6), pp. 1027-1043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F. & Chu, C. S. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
  • Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), pp. 3-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
  • Maddala, G. S. & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(1), pp. 631-652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631
  • McNabb, K. (2018). Tax structures and economic growth: New evidence from the government revenue dataset. Journal of International Development, 30, pp. 173-205. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3345
  • Ocran. M. K. (2011). Fiscal policy and economic growth in South Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 38(5), pp. 604-618. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581111161841
  • Owino, O. B. (2019). The effect of custom and excise duties on economic growth in Kenya. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 9(1), pp. 530-546. http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.9.01.2019.p8564
  • Padda, I. U. H. & Akram, N. (2009). The impact of tax policies on economic growth: Evidence from South-Asian economies. The Pakistan Development Review, 48(4), pp. 961-971. https://doi.org/10.30541/v48i4IIpp.961-971
  • Padovano, F. & Galli, E. (2001). Tax rates and economic growth in the OECD countries (1950-1990). Economic Inquiry, 39(1), pp. 44-57. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2001.tb00049.x
  • Petru-Ovidiu, M. (2015). Tax composition and economic growth, a panel-model approach for Eastern Europe. Annals-Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University of Targu Jiu, 2(1), pp. 89-101.
  • Quah, D. (1994). Exploiting cross section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data. Economics Letters, 44(1-2), pp. 9-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(93)00302-5
  • Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), pp. 1002-1037.
  • Romer. P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), pp. 71-102.
  • Romero-Ávila, D. & Strauch, R. (2008). Public finances and long-term growth in Europe: Evidence from a panel data analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 24(1), pp. 172-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2007.06.008
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), pp. 65-94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
  • Stoilova, D. & Patonov, N. (2012). An empirical evidence for the impact of taxation on economy growth in the European Union. Tourism and Management Studies International Conference Algarve, 3, pp. 1031-1039.
  • Stoilova, D. (2017). Tax structure and economic growth: Evidence from the European Union. Contaduría y Administración, 62(3), pp. 1041-1057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cya.2017.04.006
  • Stoilova, D. & Patonov, N. (2020). Fiscal policy and growth in a small emerging economy: The case of Bulgaria. Society and Economy, 42(4), pp. 386-402. https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2020.00015
  • Szarowska, I. (2013). Effects of taxation by economic functions on economic growth in the European Union. MPRA Paper, No. 59781.
  • Şen, H., Kaya, A. & Alpaslan, B. (2018). Education, health, and economic growth nexus: A Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis for developing countries. Sosyoekonomi, 26(36), pp. 125-144. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.02.07
  • Tanchev, S. (2016). The role of the proportional income tax on economic growth of Bulgaria. Economic Studies journal, 25(4), pp. 66-77.
  • Tanzi, V. (2006). Fiscal policy: When theory collides with reality. CEPS Working Document, No. 246.
  • Veronika, B. & Lenka, J. (2012). Taxation of corporations and their impact on economic growth: The case of EU countries. Journal of Competitiveness, 4(4), pp. 96-108. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2012.04.07
  • Yi, F. & Suyono, E. (2014). The relationship between tax revenue and economic growth of hebei province based on the tax multiplier effect. Global Economy and Finance Journal, 7(2), pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.21102/GEFJ.2014.09.72.01

OECD Ülkelerinde Vergi Gelirleri İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 599 - 610, 30.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.982678

Öz

Hükümetler ulaşmak istedikleri ekonomik amaçlara ulaşmak için çeşitli politikalar uygulayabilmektedir. En sıklıkla başvurdukları politikalar arasında para ve maliye politikaları yer almaktadır. Maliye politikaları arasında vergiler önemli bir politika aracı olarak yer almaktadır. Toplanan vergilerden elde edilen vergi gelirleri kamu tarafından yapılan harcamaların finansmanında kullanılmasının yanında ekonomik hedeflere ulaşmada da kullanılan maliye politikası aracı olarak önem taşımaktadır. Politika yapıcıların ekonomik büyüme hedefine ulaşmak için uyguladığı maliye politikası araçlarından biri de vergi gelirleridir. Vergi gelirlerinde meydana gelen değişmeler çeşitli kanallar üzerinden doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak ekonomik büyümeyi etkileyebilmektedir. Çalışmada, rassal olarak seçilen 9 OECD ülkesinde (Fransa, Almanya, Yunanistan, Macaristan, İtalya, Polonya, İspanya, Türkiye ve Birleşik Krallık) 2010-2019 dönemine ait yıllık verilerle, vergi gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ilişki olup olmadığı panel nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Panel nedensellik testi sonucunda vergi gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Abata, M. A., Kehinde, J. S. & Bolarinwa, S. A. (2012). Fiscal/monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria: A theoretical exploration. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 1(5), pp. 75-88.
  • Ahmad, S., Sial, M. H. & Ahmad, N. (2018). Indirect taxes and economic growth: An empirical analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 28(1), pp. 65-81.
  • Anastassiou, T. & Dritsaki, C. (2005). Tax revenues and economic growth: An empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Journal of Social Sciences, 1(2), pp. 99-104. https://doi.org/10.3844/jssp.2005.99.104
  • Andrašıć, J., Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., Milenković, N. & Pjanić, M. (2018). Econometric modelling of tax impact on economic growth: Panel evidence from OECD countries. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 52(4), pp. 211-226. https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/52.4.18.14
  • Atems, B. (2015). Another look at tax policy and state economic growth: The long-run and short-run of it. Economics Letters, 127(C), pp. 64-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.12.035
  • Baltagi, B. H. & Kao, C. (2000). Nonstationary panels, cointegration in panels and dynamic panels: A survey. Center for Policy Research Working Papers, No. 16. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1808022
  • Barro, R. J. (1996). Institutions and growth, an introductory essay. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), pp. 145-148.
  • Benos, N. (2009). Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from EU countries. MPRA Paper, No. 19174.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and fixed effects model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), pp. 533-549. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297285
  • Boumahdi, R. & Thomas, A. (1991). Testing for unit roots using panel data: Application to the French stock market efficiency. Economic Letters, 37(1), pp. 77-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(91)90246-H
  • Breitung, J. & Meyer, W. (1994). Testing for unit roots in panel data: Are wages on different bargaining levels cointegrated. Applied Economics, 26(4), pp. 353-361. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849400000081
  • Breitung, J. (2000). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, pp. 161-177. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15006-6
  • Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), pp. 249-272. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00048-6
  • Chugunov, I. Y. & Pasichnyi, M. D. (2018). Fiscal policy for economic development. Scientific Bulletin of Polissia, 1(13), pp. 54-61. https://doi.org/10.25140/2410-9576-2018-1-1(13)-54-61
  • Ebimobowei, A. (2010). The relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in Nigeria (1991-2005). International Journal of Economic Development Research and Investment, 1(2), pp. 37-47.
  • El-Khouri, S. (2002). Fiscal policy and macroeconomic management. Wong, C-H., Khan, M. S. & Nsouli, S. M. (eds). Macroeconomic management: Programs and policy. Washington: International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589060944.071
  • Gale, W. G. & Samwick, A. (2014). Effects of income tax changes on economic growth. Economic Studies at Brookings. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2494468
  • Hadri, K. (1999). Testing the null hypothesis of stationary against the alternative of a unit root in panel data with serially correlated errors. Working Papers, No. 5.
  • Hakim, T. A. (2020). Direct versus indirect taxes: Impact on economic growth and total tax revenue. International Journal of Financial Research, 11(2), pp. 146-153. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n2p146
  • Harris, R. & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. West Sussex: John Wiley.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), pp. 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
  • Juhandi, N., Fahlevi, M. & Setiadi, S. (2019). Tax policy and fiscal consolidation on corporate income tax. Journal of Reseacrh in Business, Management and Accounting, 1(1), pp. 21-33.
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), pp. 1-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
  • Koch, S. F., Schoeman, N. J. & Van Tonder, J. J. (2005). Economic growth and the structure of taxes in South Africa: 1960-2002. South African Journal of Economics, 73(2), pp. 190-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2005.00013.x
  • Korkmaz, S., Yılgor, M. & Aksoy, F. (2019). The impact of direct and indirect taxes on the growth of the Turkish economy. Public Sector Economics, 43(3), pp. 311-323. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.43.3.5
  • Lee, Y. & Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax structure and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5-6), pp. 1027-1043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F. & Chu, C. S. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
  • Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), pp. 3-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
  • Maddala, G. S. & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(1), pp. 631-652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631
  • McNabb, K. (2018). Tax structures and economic growth: New evidence from the government revenue dataset. Journal of International Development, 30, pp. 173-205. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3345
  • Ocran. M. K. (2011). Fiscal policy and economic growth in South Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 38(5), pp. 604-618. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581111161841
  • Owino, O. B. (2019). The effect of custom and excise duties on economic growth in Kenya. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 9(1), pp. 530-546. http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.9.01.2019.p8564
  • Padda, I. U. H. & Akram, N. (2009). The impact of tax policies on economic growth: Evidence from South-Asian economies. The Pakistan Development Review, 48(4), pp. 961-971. https://doi.org/10.30541/v48i4IIpp.961-971
  • Padovano, F. & Galli, E. (2001). Tax rates and economic growth in the OECD countries (1950-1990). Economic Inquiry, 39(1), pp. 44-57. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2001.tb00049.x
  • Petru-Ovidiu, M. (2015). Tax composition and economic growth, a panel-model approach for Eastern Europe. Annals-Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University of Targu Jiu, 2(1), pp. 89-101.
  • Quah, D. (1994). Exploiting cross section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data. Economics Letters, 44(1-2), pp. 9-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(93)00302-5
  • Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), pp. 1002-1037.
  • Romer. P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), pp. 71-102.
  • Romero-Ávila, D. & Strauch, R. (2008). Public finances and long-term growth in Europe: Evidence from a panel data analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 24(1), pp. 172-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2007.06.008
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), pp. 65-94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
  • Stoilova, D. & Patonov, N. (2012). An empirical evidence for the impact of taxation on economy growth in the European Union. Tourism and Management Studies International Conference Algarve, 3, pp. 1031-1039.
  • Stoilova, D. (2017). Tax structure and economic growth: Evidence from the European Union. Contaduría y Administración, 62(3), pp. 1041-1057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cya.2017.04.006
  • Stoilova, D. & Patonov, N. (2020). Fiscal policy and growth in a small emerging economy: The case of Bulgaria. Society and Economy, 42(4), pp. 386-402. https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2020.00015
  • Szarowska, I. (2013). Effects of taxation by economic functions on economic growth in the European Union. MPRA Paper, No. 59781.
  • Şen, H., Kaya, A. & Alpaslan, B. (2018). Education, health, and economic growth nexus: A Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis for developing countries. Sosyoekonomi, 26(36), pp. 125-144. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.02.07
  • Tanchev, S. (2016). The role of the proportional income tax on economic growth of Bulgaria. Economic Studies journal, 25(4), pp. 66-77.
  • Tanzi, V. (2006). Fiscal policy: When theory collides with reality. CEPS Working Document, No. 246.
  • Veronika, B. & Lenka, J. (2012). Taxation of corporations and their impact on economic growth: The case of EU countries. Journal of Competitiveness, 4(4), pp. 96-108. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2012.04.07
  • Yi, F. & Suyono, E. (2014). The relationship between tax revenue and economic growth of hebei province based on the tax multiplier effect. Global Economy and Finance Journal, 7(2), pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.21102/GEFJ.2014.09.72.01
Toplam 49 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm İktisat
Yazarlar

Suna Korkmaz 0000-0001-6221-2322

Musa Bayır 0000-0002-6877-4032

Hüseyin Güvenoğlu 0000-0002-5220-3657

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 13 Ağustos 2021
Kabul Tarihi 12 Şubat 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Korkmaz, S., Bayır, M., & Güvenoğlu, H. (2022). The Causal Relationship Between Tax Revenues and Economic Growth in OECD Countries. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 21(2), 599-610. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.982678