İNSANSIZ HAVA ARAÇLARI VE MODERN SAVAŞIN ANATOMİSİ: RUSYA-UKRAYNA SAVAŞI

Öz

Teknolojik gelişmelerin 21. yüzyılda hızla ilerleme kaydetmesi ve otonom silah sistemlerinin kullanımının yaygınlaşması savaşın icra ediliş biçimi, devletlerin askeri stratejileri ve uluslararası güvenlik gündeminde stratejik etkiler yaratmıştır. Söz konusu silah sistemlerinin bir parçası olan insansız hava araçları (İHA) halihazırda birçok ülke tarafından geleneksel savaş ve terörle mücadele operasyonları gibi alanlarda aktif bir biçimde kullanılmakta ve savaş sahası üzerinde çok sayıda karmaşık görevler üstlenebilmektedir. Bu çalışma İHA’ların modern savaş ortamı ve savaşın değişen doğası üzerindeki etkilerini ortaya koymuş ve İHA’ların modern savaş sahnesini nasıl ve ne yönde şekillendirdiği sorusu üzerine odaklanmıştır. Çalışmada ilk olarak İHA’ların değişen yapısı ve savaş sahasındaki etkileri üzerine teorik bir tartışma yürütülmüş, devam eden bölümde ise İHA’ların kullanımının yaygınlaşmasının güvenlik gündemi üzerindeki stratejik etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Nihai olarak, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı ele alınarak her iki devletin İHA’ları savaş stratejilerinde nasıl konumlandırdığı ve İHA’ların savaşın gidişatını nasıl belirlediği incelenmiştir. Buradan yola çıkarak çalışmada İHA’ların devletlerin askeri stratejilerine yerleşmesiyle savaşın doğası ve icra ediliş biçiminde gözle görülür bir değişim yarattığını ve devletlere savaş sahasında yalnızca istihbarat, keşif ve gözetleme alanlarında avantaj sunmakla kalmayıp daha geniş çerçevede devletlerin operasyonel, taktik ve stratejik kabiliyetini güçlendirdiği argümanı ileri sürülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İnsansız Hava Araçları
• Modern Savaş
• Rusya
• Ukrayna
• Savaşın Değişen Doğası

UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES AND THE ANATOMY OF MODERN WARFARE: THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Öz

The rapid advancement of technological developments in the 21st century and the proliferation of autonomous weapon systems have had strategic consequences on the way war is conducted, the military strategies of states and the international security agenda. As a part of these weapon system, UAVs are currently used by many countries in various fields such as conventional warfare and counter-terrorism operations and can also undertake numerous complex missions on the battlefield. This study reveales the impact of UAVs on the changing nature of warfare and focuses on the question of how and in what ways UAVs shape the modern warfare scene. In the study, firstly, a theoretical discussion is conducted on the effects of UAVs on the battlefield, and in the following section, the strategic implementations of the widespread use of UAVs on the security agenda are evaluated. Based on this, the study argues that the inclusion of UAVs in the military strategies of states has created a visible change in the nature and way of conducting warfare, and that they not only provide states with advantages in the fields of intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, but also strengthen their operational, tactical and strategic capabilities in a broader context.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
• Modern Warfare
• Russia
• Ukraine
• Changing Nature of Warfare

Kaynakça

1. ADAMS, P. ve AMSTRONG, K. (2024). “Massive Russian Attack Causes Ukraine Blackouts”. Erişim Tarihi: 22.11.2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l3qgnx2o.
2. Amerikan Savunma Bakanlığı. (2023). Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System. Washington: Head-quarters, Department of the Army.
3. Army Recognition (2023). “Ukraine Acquires 2,000 Autel Evo Max 4T Chinese-Made Drones”. Erişim Tarihi: 04.09.2024. https://armyrecognition.com/focus-analysis-conflicts/army/conflicts-in-the-world/russia- ukraine-war-2022/ukraine-acquires-2-000-autel-evo-max-4t-china-made-drones.
4. BBC (2023). “How Are 'Kamikaze' Drones Being Used by Russia and Ukraine?”. Erişim Tarihi: 23.10.2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62225830.
5. BENDETT, S. (2024). “Russian Military Drones: Established and Emerging Technologies in Ukraine”. DE GRUYTER HANDBOOK OF DRONE WARFARE. (ed. JAMES P. R.). Berlin: De Gruyter: 285-298.
6. BLOM, J. D. (2010). Unmanned Aerial Systems: A Historical Perspective. Kansas: US Army Com-bined Arms Center.
7. BORSARI, F. (2022). “Tools of Influence: Drone Proliferation in the Middle East and North Afri-ca”. Erişim Tarihi: 25.09.2024. https://ecfr.eu/article/tools-of-influence-drone-proliferation-in-the-middle-east-and-north- africa/.
8. BOWMAN, B. vd. (2021). “China’s Surprising Drone Sales in the Middle East.” Erişim Tarihi: 28.10. 2024.

9. https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2021/04/23/chinas-surprising-drone-sales-in-the-middle-east/.
10. BOYLE, M. J. (2015). “The Race for Drones”. Orbis. 59/1: 76-94.
11. CALCARA, A., GILLI, A., GILLI, M. ve ZACCAGNINI I. (2022). “Will the Drone Always Get Through? Offensive Myths and Defensive Realities”. Security Studies. 31/5: 791-825.
12. CALCARA, A., GILLI, A., GILLI, M., MARCHETTI, R. ve ZACCAGNINI, I. (2022). “Why Drones Have Not Revolutionized War: The Enduring Hider-Finder Competition in Air Warfare”. In-ternational Security. 46/4: 130-171.
13. CAMPBELL, M. (2024). Drone Proliferation Dataset. Center for New American Century.
14. CHANDRA, A. (2021). “Why China's Armed UAVs Are a Global Export Success, and Its Fighter Jets, Not So Much”.
15. Erişim Tarihi: 02.11.2024. https://www.defenceprocurementinternational.com/features/air/china-has- disrupted-the-military-drone-market.
16. Congressional Research Service. (2023). Armed Drones: Evolution as a Counterterrorism Tool. Washington: Congressional Research Service.
17. Cumhurbaşkanlığı İletişim Başkanlığı (2023). “Türk Dronlarının Küresel Satışlarında Artış”. Erişim Tarihi: 01.11.2024. https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/turkce/dis_basinda_turkiye/detay/turk-dronlarinin-kuresel- satislarinda-artis.
18. DAVENPORT, C. (2015). “The F-35 vs. the A-10 Warthog, Head-to-Head in Close-Air Support”. Erişim Tarihi: 14.09.2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/08/27/as-it-ªghts-for-its-life-the- a-10-will-face-off-against-the-f-35-in-close-air-supporttest/.
19. DAVIS, L. E. vd. (2014). Armed and Dangerous?: UAVs and U.S. Security. California: RAND Cor-poration.
20. DEMPSEY, J. (2024). “Satellite Imagery Shows New Libyan UAV Breaking Cover”. Erişim Tarihi: 19.11. 2024. https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/08/new-libyan-uav-breaks- cover/#:~:text=UAV%20impact,)%20and%20ground%2Dattack%20missions.
21. DEPREZ, F. (2024). “Ukraine’s Pocket-Sized Answer to Russian Drones.” Erişim Tarihi: 01.11. 2024. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/05/ukraine-russia-war-drone-detectors-jamming-tsukorok/.
22. ESLAMI, M. (2022). “Iran’s Drone Supply to Russia and Changing Dynamics of the Ukraine War”. Journal of Peace and Nuclear Disarmament. 5/2: 507-518.
23. FAULCONBRIDGE, G. ve KELLY, L. (2024). “Ukraine Attacks Moscow with 34 Drones, Biggest Strike on the Russian Capital”. Erişim Tarihi: 13.11.2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-drone-attack-forces- closure-two-moscow-airports-2024-11-10/.
24. FERRAN, L. (2024). “US Approves Sale Of Hundreds Of One-Way Attack Drones To Taiwan”. Erişim Tarihi: 28.08.2024. https://breakingdefense.com/2024/06/us-approves-sale-of-hundreds-of-one-way-attack- drone-to-taiwan/.
25. Fortune Business Insight (2024). “Unmanned System /Military Drone Market”. Erişim Tarihi: 10.11.2024. https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/military-drone-market-102181.
26. FRANKE, U. (2023). “Drones in Ukraine and Beyond: Everything You Need to Know. Erişim Ta-rihi: 19.09.2024. https://ecfr.eu/article/drones-in-ukraine-and-beyond-everything-you-need-to-know/.
27. FUHRMANN, M. ve HOROWITZ, M. C. (2017). “Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Un-manned Aerial Vehicles”. International Organization. 71/2: 397-418.
28. FUKUYAMA, F. (2021). “Droning On in the Middle East”. Erişim Tarihi: 04.09.2024. https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/droning-on/.
29. GERSTEIN, D. M. ve LEIDY, E. N. (2024). Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis: Unmanned Aerial Systems Intelligent Swarm Technology. California: Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center.
30. Government Accountability Office. (2023). Drone Swarm Technologies. Washington: Govern-ment Accountability Office.
31. GRODEN, C. (2015). “India Is Being Up Its Combat Drone Bench”. Erişim Tarihi: 07.09.2024. http://fortune.com/2015/11/10/india-combat-drones/.
32. HAMBLING, D. (2024). “DJI’s New Drone Could Change War —But It’s Not Supposed To Be A Weapon”. Erişim Tarihi: 16.08.2024. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/01/16/djis-new-drone-could-change- war--but-its-not-supposed-to-be-a-weapon/.
33. HARDY, J. (2022). “Realism, drone warfare, and the future of the international system”. DRONES AND GLOBAL ORDER. (ed. Paul L. vd.). London: Routledge.
34. HOROWITZ, M. C. vd. (2016). “Separating Fact from Fiction in the Debate over Drone Prolifer-ation”. International Security. 41/2: 7-42.
35. HUANG, K. (2020). “Chinese President Xi Jinping Urges Military to Boost Drone Warfare Capaci-ty”. Erişim Tarihi: 13.10.2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3094623/chinese president-xi- jinping-urges-military-boost-drone.
36. ISPI. (2024). “China’s Expanding Security Footprint in Africa: From Arms Transfers to Military Cooperation”. Erişim Tarihi. 15.09.2024. https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/chinas-expanding-security-footprint-in- africa-from-arms-transfers-to-military-cooperation-184841.
37. JOSHI, S. ve STEIN, A. (2013). “Emerging Drone Nations”. Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. 55/ 5: 53-78.
38. JUDSON, J. (2024). “Counter-Drone Missile Competition Possible in 2025, Army Officials Say”. Erişim Tarihi: 01.11.2024. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2024/08/07/counter-drone-missile- competition-possible-in-2025-army-officials-say/.
39. KAKISSIS, J. ve HARBAGE, C. (2024). “Ukraine is Amping Up Drone Production to Get an Edge in the War Against Russia”. Erişim Tarihi: 18.11.2024. https://www.npr.org/2024/10/13/nx-s1-5147284/ukraine-drones-russia-war.
40. KALLENBORN, Z. (2022). “Seven (Initial) Drone Warfare Lessons From Ukraine”. Erişim Tarihi: 14.08.2024. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/seven-initial-drone-warfare-lessons-from-ukraine/.
41. KHURSHUDYAN, I. vd. (2022). “Russia and Ukraine Are Fighting the First Full-Scale Drone War”. Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/ world/2022/12/02/drones-russia-ukraine-air-war/.
42. KLARE, M. T. (2024). “U.S. to Supply Taiwan With Attack Drones. Arms Control Assosiation”. Erişim Tarihi: 02.10.2024. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-09/news/us-supply-taiwan-attack-drones.
43. KOEBLER, J. (2013). “Obama: Administration Saw Drone Strikes as ‘Cure-All’ for Terrorism”. U.S. Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2024. http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/05/23/obama-administrationsaw-drone-strikes-as- cure-all-for-terrorism.
44. KOZERA, C. A.(2018). “Military Use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles – A Historical Study”. Safety & Defense. 4/1: 17- 21.
45. KREPS, S. (2016). Drones: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
46. KREPS, S. E. vd. (2018). “Drone Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century”. Oxford Handbook of International Security. (ed. ALEXANDRA G. and WILLIAM C. W.). Oxford: Oxford Univer-sity Press.
47. KREPS, S. ve ZENKO, M. (2014). “The Next Drone Wars: Preparing for Proliferation”. Foreign Affairs. 93/2: 68–79.
48. KUNERTOVA, D. (2023). “Drones Have Boots: Learning from Russia’s War in Ukraine”. Con-temporary Security Policy. 44/4: 576-591.
49. KUNERTOVA, D. (2023). “The War in Ukraine Shows the Game-Changing Effect of Drones De-pends on the
50. Game”. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 79/2:95-102.
51. MANUEL, R. (2024). “Ukraine Confirms Procurement of 1.8 Million Drones By 2025”. Erişim Tarihi: 01.11.2024. https://thedefensepost.com/2024/10/30/ukraine-confirms-drones-2025/.
52. MANUEL, R. (2024). “US Army Signs Five-Year Deal for Teledyne FLIR’s Black Hornet 4 Nano Drones”. Erişim Tarihi: 05.11.2024. https://thedefensepost.com/2024/10/28/us-black-hornet-nano-drones/.
53. MAXWELL, P. (2024). “Don’t Bring A Patriot To A Drone Fight—Bring Fighter UAVs Instead”. Erişim Tarihi: 17.11.2024. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/dont-bring-a-patriot-to-a-drone-fight-bring-fighter-uavs-instead/.
54. MITRIDIS, D., KAPSALIS, S., TERZIS, D., PANAGIOTOU, P. (2023). “An Evaluation of Fixed-Wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Trends and Correlations with Respect to NATO Classification, Region, EIS Date and Operational Specifications”. Aerospace. 10/382: 1-30.
55. MOLLOY, O. (2024). Drones in Modern Warfare: Lessons Learnt from the War in Ukraine. Aus-tralian Army Research Centre.
56. MUMFORD, A. (2013). “Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict”. RUSI Journal. 158/2.
57. NAYAN, R. (2022). “Nuclear Mission of Drones”. Journal of Defence Studies. 16/4: 141-158.
58. NEWCOME, L. R. (2004). Unmanned Aviation: A Brief History of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Virginia: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
59. OSINGA, F. (2018). “Air Strike”. Routledge Handbook of Air Power. (ed. John Andreas Olsen). Londra: Routledge: 95-107.
60. PARACHINI, J. V. ve WILSON, P. A. (2020). “Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems,”. Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2024. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/07/02/droneera_warfare_shows_the_operational_limits _of _air_defense_systems_115430.html.
61. PETTYJOHN, S. (2024). Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine. Washington: Center for a New American Century.
62. PETTYJOHN, S. vd. (2024). Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan. Washington: Center for New American Century.
63. PIETRUCHA, M. W. (2013). The Next Lightweight Fighter: Not Your Grandfather’s Combat Air-craft.
64. Reuters (2024). “India to Buy 31 Armed Drones from US. Erişim Tarihi: 15.11.2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/india-signs-deal-with-us-procure-31-mq-9b-drones-ministry-says-2024- 10-15/.
65. ROGERS, J. P. (2024). “What Is Drone Warfare?”. De Gruyter Handbook of Drone Warfare. (ed. JAMES P. R.). Berlin: De Gruyter: 9-24.
66. ROSSITER, A. ve CANNON, B. J. (2024). “Game-Changing Drones? The Record from Libya to Ukraine”. De Gruyter Handbook of Drone Warfare. (ed. JAMES P. R.). Berlin: De Gruyter: 325-338.
67. SAVAGE, O. (2024). “Ukraine Conflict: Ukraine Establishes World's First Unmanned Force”. Erişim Tarihi: 14.09.2024. https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/air/ukraine-conflict-ukraine-establishes- worlds-first-unmanned-force.
68. SAYLER, K. ve DEVINE, M. (2022). Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Roles, Missions, and Future Concepts. Washington: Congressional Research Service.
69. SHAW, I.G.R. (2013). “Predator Empire: The Geopolitics of US Drone Warfare”. Geopolitics. 18/3: 536-559.
70. SINGER, P. W. ve WRIGHT, T. (2013). “An Obama Doctrine on New Rules of War”. Erişim Tarihi: 11.11.2024. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/an-obama-doctrine-on-new-rules-of-war/.
71. STERNSTEIN, Aliya. (2015). “How to Hack a Military Drone”. Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2024. http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2015/04/how-hack-military-drone/111391/.
72. STULBERG, A. N. (2007). “Managing the Unmanned Revolution in the U.S. Air Force”. Orbis. 51/2,: 251–265.
73. The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (2024). “The Orlan Com-plex: Tracking The Supply Chains Of Russia's Most Successful UAV”. Erişim Tarihi: 16.11.2024. https://rusi.org/explore-our- research/publications/special-resources/orlan-complex-tracking-supply-chains-russias-most- successful-uav/interactive-summary.
74. Thompson, Kristen D. (2024). How the Drone War in Ukraine Is Transforming Conflict. Council on Foreign Relations. 16 Ocak 2024. https://www.cfr.org/article/how-drone-war-ukraine-transforming-conflict.
75. TUCKER, P. (2014). Every Country Will Have Armed Drones within 10 Years. Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2024. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2014/05/every-country-will-have-armed-drones-within-ten- years/83878/.
76. TUCKER, P. (2024). “US-Made Jam-Resistant Drones Helped Ukrainians Cut Through Russia EW”. Erişim Tarihi: 02.11.2024. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2024/10/us-made-jam-resistant-drones-are-helping- ukrainians-cut-through-russia-ew/400735/
77. WATLING, J. ve REYNOLDS, N. (2023). Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine. Londra: The Royal United Service Institute for Defence and Security Studies.
78. World of Drones Database. (2024). “Introduction: How We Became a World of Drones”. Erişim Tarihi: 21.10.2024. https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/worlddrones/introduction-how-we-became-a- world-of-drones.
79. World of Drones Database. (2024). “Who Has What: Countries with Armed Drones”. Erişim Tarihi: 28.10.2024. https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/world-drones/who-has-what-countries-with- armed-drones/.
80. ZEGART, A. (2015). The Coming Revolution of Drone Warfare”. Erişim Tarihi: 19.09.2024. http://www.wsj.com/articles/amy-zegart-the-coming-revolution-of-drone-warfare-1426720364.