Strategic Hedging in Azerbaijan's Relations With Russia

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 88, 1455 - 1471, 29.12.2025

Halit Hamzaoğlu

https://doi.org/10.56694/karadearas.1702956

Öz

ABSTRACT
Considering the dynamics of Azerbaijan's relations with Russia and the distribution of factors determining the course of relations, it is possible to observe that there are many elements of strategic hedging. Post-independence Azerbaijan has built its foreign policy on versatility and balance in the challenging conditions of the South Caucasus geography. In particular, this foreign policy has determined the general framework of the development of Azerbaijan's relations with Russia. The historical contexts and stories with Russia made it necessary to determine this policy. The article focuses on the question of strategic hedging in Azerbaijan's relations with Russia. Since independence, Azerbaijan's relations with Russia have followed an up-and-down course. This course has shaped the functioning and framework of relations between the two states. On the one hand, Azerbaijan has emphasized its strategic relations with Russia, while on the other hand, it has established multidimensional strategic cooperation mechanisms with Türkiye and the West. In this respect, it is possible to say that Azerbaijan has prioritized hedging by implementing the strategy of acting independently from Russia and acting cautiously in its relations with Russia. In this article, strategic hedging in Azerbaijan's relations with Russia is tested through three case studies. In this context, Azerbaijan's policies and priorities in the Russian-Georgian, Second Karabakh and Russian-Ukrainian wars are analyzed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Azerbaijan , Russia , strategic hedging , balancing , foreign policy

STRATEGIC HEDGING IN AZERBAIJAN’S RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA

Öz

ABSTRACT
Considering the dynamics of Azerbaijan's relations with Russia and the distribution of factors determining the course of relations, it is possible to observe that there are many elements of strategic hedging. Post-independence Azerbaijan has built its foreign policy on versatility and balance in the challenging conditions of the South Caucasus geography. In particular, this foreign policy has determined the general framework of the development of Azerbaijan's relations with Russia. The historical contexts and stories with Russia made it necessary to determine this policy. The article focuses on the question of strategic hedging in Azerbaijan's relations with Russia. Since independence, Azerbaijan's relations with Russia have followed an up-and-down course. This course has shaped the functioning and framework of relations between the two states. On the one hand, Azerbaijan has emphasized its strategic relations with Russia, while on the other hand, it has established multidimensional strategic cooperation mechanisms with Türkiye and the West. In this respect, it is possible to say that Azerbaijan has prioritized hedging by implementing the strategy of acting independently from Russia and acting cautiously in its relations with Russia. In this article, strategic hedging in Azerbaijan's relations with Russia is tested through three case studies. In this context, Azerbaijan's policies and priorities in the Russian-Georgian, Second Karabakh and Russian-Ukrainian wars are analyzed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Azerbaijan , Russia , strategic hedging , balancing , foreign policy

Kaynakça

• ABDULLAYEV, C. (1999). Uluslararası Hukuk Çerçevesinde Hazar’ın Statüsü ve Doğal Kaynak-larının İşletilmesi Sorunu. Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi. I-IV/48: 255-290.
• ABDULLAYEVA, S. (2025). Azerbaydjan okajhet gumpomosh Ukraine na $1 mln. Report az. Retrieved from: https://report.az/ru/vneshnyaya-politika/azerbajdzhan-okazhet-gumanitarnuyu-pomosh-ukraine/
• ALPTEKİN, G. (2021). 2008 Rusya-Gürcistan Savaşı ve Savaş Sonrası Büyük ve Bölgesel Güçle-rin Tepki ve Politikaları. RUSAD. 6, 110-130.
• ASKER, A. (2011). Gözetlemeye Devam: Gebele Radar Üssü'nün Modernizasyonu, 21. Yüzyıl Türkiye Enstitüsü. Retrieved from: https://21yyte.org/azerbaycan/gozetlemeye-devam-gebele-radar-ussunun- modernizasyonu/6113
• AYDIN, M. (2002). Kafkasya ve Orta Asya’yla İlişkiler, Türk Dış Politikası Cilt II (Ed. Baskın Oran), İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
• BAUNOV, A. (2020). V ozhidaniyii soyuznika. Pochemu Rossiya ne speshit pomogaty Armeniyii v Karabakhe, Moskovskiy Tsentr Karnegi. Retrieved from: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/82921
• BOCHORİSHVİLİ, B. (2023). The enduring impacts of Russia’s 2008 war on Georgia, The Strate-gist ASPI. Retrieved from:https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-enduring-impacts-of-russias-2008-war-on-georgia/
• CAFERSOY, N. (2001). Bağımsızlığın Onuncu Yılında Azerbaycan-Rusya İlişkileri (1991-2001). Avrasya Dosyası. VII/1: 286-318.
• CIORCIARI, J. D. & Haacke, J. (2019). Hedging in international relations: an introduction. Inter-national Relations of the Asia-Pacific. XIX: 367-374.
• CORNELL, S. (1999). Between Eurasia and the Middle East Azerbaijan’s New Geopolitics. Baku Dialogues , Policy Perspectives on the Silk Road Region. IV/1:10-24.
• DEİK, (2013). Azerbaycan Ülke Bülteni. Retrieved from: https://www.deik.org.tr/uploads/azerbaycan-nisan- 2013.pdf
• EURASİANET, (2009). Azerbaydjan: rossiyskiy blitskrig 2008 goda v Gruziyii okhladil nastroy Azerbaydjana v otnosheniyii Nato i Es. Retrieved from: https://russian.eurasianet.org/node/56977
• GADZHİEV, K. (2021). Yuzhniy Kavkaz cherez prizmu vtoroy Karabakhskoy voyny. Rossiya i noviye gosudartva Evraziyii. LII/3: 126-139.
• GASİMLİ, M. (2001). Rusya’nın Azerbaycan politikası. Avrasya Dosyası. VII/4: 253-269.
• GOH, E. (2005). Meeting the China Challenge: The U.S. in Southeast Asian Regional Security Strategies. East- West Center Policy Studies. 16: 1-66.
• GONZALES-Pujol, I. (2024). Theorising the Hedging Strategy: National Interests, Objectives, and Mixed Foreign Policy Instruments. All Azimuth. XIII/2: 193-214.
• GULİYEV, F. (2021). Azerbaijani-Russian Relations: Transactional Diplomacy in Action. Russian Analytical Digest. 273: 10-13.
• HUSEYNLİ, E. (2023). Kakuyhu pomosh Ukraine okazal Azerbaydjan vo vremya voynyi? Azer-tac. Retrieved from: https://azertag.az/ru/xeber/kakuyu_pomoshch_ukraine_okazal_azerbaidzhan_vo_vremya_voiny- 2456417
• HUSEYNOV, V. (2022). The Russia–Ukraine War: Perspective of Azerbaijan. Caucasus Strategic Perspectives. I/3: 87-100.
• İZMODENOV, İ. A. (2004). Rossiysko-Azerbaydjanskiye otnosheniya 1991-2003 gg, (Moskva, Rossiyskiy Universitet Druzhby Narodov).
• KAHRAMAN, F. Ş. & Merdan, A. S. (2019). Hazar Denizi’nin Hukuki Statüsü. Kafkas Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. XI/21: 434-468.
• KELKİTLİ, F. A. (2008). Russian Foreign Policy South Caucasus under Putin. Perceptions. III/13: 73-91.
• KERİMOVA, N. (2019). Rusya’nın Kafkasya Politikası ve Azerbaycan ile İlişkileri, Sakarya: Sa-karya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü. (Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi).
• KOMMERSANT, (2020). Putin prizval prekratit ogon v Nagornom Karabakhe. Retrieved from: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4521118
• KOROLEV, A. (2016). Systemic Balancing and Regional Hedging: China–Russia Relations. The Chinese Journal of International Politics. IX/4: 375-397.
• KOROLEV, A. (2019). Shrinking room for hedging: system-unit dynamics and behavior of smal-ler Powers. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific. 19: 419-452.
• KRİVOPALOV, A. (2022). Vtoraya Karabakhskaya voyna v politiko-strategicheskoy retrospek-tive. Rossiya i noviye gosudartva Evraziyii. III (LVI): 149-160.
• KUCHERA, J. (2024). One Winner of Russia's War Against Ukraine Is Azerbaijan, Harvard Uni-versity Davis Center, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Retrieved from: https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-winner- caucasus-ukraine-war-russia-relations/32917647.html?utm_source=dlvr.it
• KUCHİNS, A. C., Mankoff, J. &Backes, O. (2016). Azerbaijan in a Reconnecting Eurasia. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 16: 2-24.
• KUİK, C. C. (2008). The essence of hedging: Malaysia and Singapore's response to a rising China. Contemprary Southeast Asia. XXX/2: 159-185.
• KUİK, C. C. (2021). Getting hedging right: a small state perspective. China International Stra-tegy Review. 3: 300-315.
• LIM, D. J. & Cooper, Z. (2015). Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia. Secu-rity Studies. XXIV/4: 696-727.
• MAMEDOV, N. (2024). Dostijheniya Azerbaydjana v ukrepleniyii otnosheniiy s Rossiyey v pe-riod prezidentstva İlyhama Aliyeva. Retrieved from: https://aircenter.az/ru/single/dostijeniya-azerbaydjana-v-ukreplenii- otnoseniy-s-rossiey-v-period-prezidentstva-ilyhama-alieva-1345
• MARKEDONOV, S. (2019). Rossiya v prochesse nagorno-karabahskogo uregulirovaniya. RUDN. Retrieved from: https://mgimo.ru/library/publications/rossiya_v_protsesse_nagorno_karabakhskogo_uregulirovani-ya/? utm_source=google.ru&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.ru&utm_referrer=google.ru
• MEDEİROS, E.S. (2005). Strategic hedging and the future of Asia-pacific stability. The Washing-ton Quarterly. XXIV/1: 145-167.
• MERDAN, A.S. (2013). Azerbaycan-ABD İlişkilerinde Belirsizlik Dönemi (1991-1994). Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Uluslararası Avrasya Strateji Dergisi, 2(1): 47-70.
• MİRZALİYEVA, F. (2016). Azerbaycan Enerji Politikaları ve Türkiye ile İş Birliği. İnsamer, 1-8.
• MUSAVİ, N. (2022). Pozitsiya Azerbaydjana po Ukraine: mezhdu dvuh ogney. DW. Retrieved from: https://www.dw.com/ru/pozicija-azerbajdzhana-po-ukraine-mezhdu-dvuh-ognej-ili-na-dvuh-stuljah/a- 61082991
• PREZİDENT. az, (2024). İlham Aliyev Beynelxalg Chernobbio Forumunda “Yeni geosiyasi şe-raitde Azerbaycan’ın rolu” adlı sessiyada çıxış edib. Retrieved from: https://president.az/az/articles/view/66804
• REMLER, P. (2020). Russia’s Stony Path in the South Caucasus. Carnegie Endowment for Inter-national Peace. Retrieved from: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2020/10/russias-stony-path-in-the-south- caucasus?lang=en
• REPORT.az, (2018). Eks-posol Azerbaydjana v Gruziyii: posledstviya konflikta vokrug Osetiyii budut eshe dolgo skazivatsya na cheloveceskih sudybakh. Retrieved from: https://report.az/ru/v-regione/eks-posol- azerbajdzhana-v-gruzii-posledstviya-konflikta-vokrug-osetii-budut-eshe-dolgo-skazyvat-sya-na-chelovecheskih-sud-bah/
• SAPMAZ, A. (2022). Rusya Federasyonu’nun Kafkasya Politikası: Bütüncül Bakış. Gazi Akade-mik Bakış. XVI/31: 257-278.
• SHAHMURADOV, A. Ş. (2010). 1991-1995-ci illerde Azerbaycan-Rusiya münasibetlerindeki problemlere dair. Bakı Universitetinin Xeberleri Humanitar elmler seriyası. 2: 193-197.
• SİLAYEV, N. Y. (2009). İtogi avgustovskoy voynyi dlya Yuzhnogo Kavkaza. Tsentralnaya Aziya i Kavkaz. III/63: 1- 13.
• SMITH, N. R. (2018). Strategic Hedging by Smaller Powers: What can Neoclassical Realism Add?. Prepared for the Workshop: Re-Appraising Neoclassical Realism, London School of Economics, 1-17.
• ŞEKER, S. (2011). Rusya Federasyonu Orta Asya ve Kafkasya Siyaseti (1991-2000), Orta Asya Güney Kafkasya Siyasi Gelişmeler (Ed. Necati İyikan), İstanbul: Hiperlink.
• VALİYEV, A. (2011). Azerbaijan and the North Caucasus: A Pragmatic Relationship. Caucasus Analytical Digest. 27: 5-9.
• VALİYEV. A. & Mamishova, N. (2019). Azerbaijan’s foreign policy towards Russia since inde-pendence: compromise achieved. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies. XIX/2: 269-291.
• YILMAZ, Ö. (2011). Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti Siyasi Gelişmeler (1991-2010), Orta Asya Güney Kafkasya Siyasi Gelişmeler (Ed. Necati İyikan), İstanbul: Hiperlink.
• YUZHU, W. (2021). ‘Hedging Strategy: Concept, Behavior, and Implications for China-ASEAN Relations’. East Asian Affairs. I/2: 1-36.