KARADENİZ TAHIL KORİDORU ŞOKLARININ BÖLGE EKONOMİLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: DIŞ TİCARET, ENFLASYON VE DÖVİZ KURU ANALİZİ

Öz

Son yıllarda, uluslararası tahıl fiyatları Covid-19 pandemisi, iklim değişikliği, ekonomik şoklar, ticaret anlaşmazlıkları ve jeopolitik çatışmalar gibi bir dizi faktörün bir araya gelmesi nedeniyle dalgalı bir seyir izlemektedir. Bu bağlama çalışma, Karadeniz Tahıl Koridoru’na ilişkin başlıca şokların Karadeniz havzasındaki ülkelerde dış ticaret, enflasyon ve finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Analizde kullanılmak üzere Türkiye, Rusya, Ukrayna, Gürcistan, Romanya ve Bulgaristan’dan oluşan örneklem seçilerek; anlaşmanın imzalanması, sürece dair uzatmalar, Rusya’nın çekilmesi “haber şoku” olarak beş kritik zaman dilimi ele alınmıştır. Kısa dönem piyasa tepkisini ölçmek amacıyla döviz kuru üzerinden olay çalışması yaklaşımı uygulanmış ve olay pencerelerinde kümülatif anormal getiriler (CAR) hesaplanmıştır; küresel dolar koşullarını ayrıştırmak için DXY-arındırılmış kur getirileriyle alternatif CAR’lar üretilmiştir. Orta vadeli makro etkiler, panel yerel projeksiyon yöntemiyle dinamik “etki izi” biçiminde izlenmiş; aynı zamanda, panel regresyon analizi kullanılarak ülke ve yılın sabit etkileri dikkate alınarak, şokların etkisinin ülkelerin maruz kalma seviyelerine bağlı olarak (şok × maruziyet) etkileşimi araştırılmıştır. Bulgular, döviz kuru kanalında şoklara verilen kısa vadeli tepkinin genel olarak sınırlı kaldığını; buna karşın koridorun askıya alınmasının dış ticaret göstergeleri üzerinde daha belirgin ve kalıcı bir bozulma ile ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Enflasyon kanalındaki etkiler ise eşanlı enerji-fiyat şokları, kur geçişkenliği ve ülke-özel politika tepkileri nedeniyle daha heterojen ve kırılgan görünmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karadeniz Tahıl Koridoru
• Dış Ticaret
• Enflasyon
• Olay Çalışması
• Panel Yerel Projeksiyon

THE IMPACTS OF BLACK SEA GRAIN CORRIDOR SHOCKS ON REGOIONAL ECONOMIES: FOREIGN TRADE, INFLATION, AND EXCHANGE RATE ANALYSIS

Öz

In recent years, international grain prices have been volatile due to a confluence of factors including the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, economic shocks, trade disputes, and geopolitical conflicts. In this context, the study examines the impact of major shocks related to the Black Sea Grain Corridor on foreign trade, inflation, and financial markets in the countries of the Black Sea basin. A sample consisting of Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Romania, and Bulgaria was selected for the analysis; five critical time periods were considered as “news shocks”: the signing of the agreement, extensions to the process, and Russia’s withdrawal. An event study approach was applied to measure short-term market response through exchange rates, and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) were calculated in event windows; alternative CARs were generated with DXY-adjusted exchange rate returns to disaggregate global dollar conditions. Medium-term macroeconomic impacts were tracked in the form of dynamic “impact trails” using the panel local projection method; Simultaneously, using panel regression analysis, the interaction of the impact of shocks with countries' exposure levels (shock × exposure) was investigated, taking into account the fixed effects of country and year. The findings show that the short-term response to shocks in the exchange rate channel is generally limited; however, the suspension of the corridor is associated with a more significant and lasting deterioration in foreign trade indicators. The effects in the inflation channel appear more heterogeneous and fragile due to simultaneous energy-price shocks, exchange rate pass-through, and country-specific policy responses.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Black Sea Grain Corridor
• Foreign Trade
• Inflation
• Event Study
• Panel Local Projections

Kaynakça

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