THE UKRAINIAN WAR: A REALIST PERSPECTIVE ON GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 23, 85 - 101, 30.06.2025

Özgür Tüfekçi

Öz

Russia started the Ukrainian War through its occupation of Crimea in 2014, which subsequently evolved into a total invasion in February 2022 to become one of the most epic geopolitical conflicts of the 21st century. This paper employs the theory of Realism to examine the primary factors, international reactions, and geopolitical effects of this war. Realism serves as a robust theoretical framework for studying the movements of Russia alongside Ukraine, NATO, and the European Union, as it emphasises the importance of state autonomy, military capability, and security concerns. The war’s examination reveals Russia’s territorial expansion goals, which altered the post-Cold War political system by evoking Western military reactions and endangering European security structures. Throughout this assessment, the effects on European security are analysed together with NATO’s strategic orientation and the modifications occurring in global alliances. This paper examines realist global governance challenges by analysing international military aid, diplomatic measures, and economic sanctions. In addition, the paper aims to identify the future trajectory of this war and its impact on international relations, drawing on realist principles of modern global power politics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ukrainian War , Russia , NATO , European Union , Realism

UKRAYNA SAVAŞI: ULUSLARARASI REAKSİYON VE JEOPOLİTİK YANSIMALAR ÜZERİNE REALİST BİR BAKIŞ AÇISI

Öz

Rusya, Ukrayna Savaşı’nı 2014’te Kırım’ı işgal ederek başlattı ve bu daha sonra Şubat 2022’de tam bir işgale dönüşerek 21. yüzyılın en önemli jeopolitik çatışmalarından biri haline geldi. Bu makale, bu savaşın temel faktörlerini, uluslararası reaksiyonları ve jeopolitik yansımalarını araştırmak için Realist teoriyi kullanmaktadır. Realizm, devlet otonomisi, askeri kapasitesi ve güvenlik endişeleri konusunda belirleyici olduğu için Rusya’nın Ukrayna, NATO ve Avrupa Birliği ile birlikte politikalarını incelemek için güçlü bir teorik çerçeve görevi görmektedir. Mevcut savaşın incelenmesi, Batının askeri reaksiyon göstermesine sebep olarak ve Avrupa güvenlik yapısını tehlikeye atarak Soğuk Savaş sonrası dünya düzenini değiştiren Rusya’nın topraklarını genişletme hedefini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu değerlendirme boyunca, Avrupa güvenliği üzerindeki etkiler NATO’nun stratejik yönelimi ve küresel ittifaklarda meydana gelen değişikliklerle birlikte analiz edilmektedir. Bu makale, uluslararası askeri yardım, diplomatik önlemler ve ekonomik yaptırımları analiz
ederek realist küresel yönetişimin zorluklarını incelemektedir. Ayrıca, makale, realizmin prensiplerini kullanarak bu savaşın nasıl evrileceğini ve uluslararası ilişkiler üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ukrayna Savaşı , Rusya , NATO , Avrupa Birliği , Realizm

Kaynakça

• Alden, C. (2023), “The International System in the Shadow of the Russian War in Ukraine.” LSE Public Policy Review 3 (1): 16, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.31389/lseppr.96.
• Allan, D. (2020), The Minsk conundrum: Western policy and Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine. Chatham House, 22.
• Allison, R. (2022), Russia, Ukraine, and State Survival through Neutrality. International affairs, 98(6), 1849-1872.
• Åtland, K. (2020), Destined for deadlock? Russia, Ukraine, and the unfulfilled Minsk agreements. Post-Soviet Affairs, 36(2), 122–139.
• Biersack, J., & O’lear, S. (2014), The geopolitics of Russia’s annexation of Crimea: narratives, identity, silences, and energy. Eurasian geography and economics, 55(3), 247-269.
• Biersteker, T. J. (2013), State, sovereignty and territory. Handbook of international relations, 245-272.
• Buzan, B. (2008), People, states & fear: an agenda for international security studies in the post-cold war era. ECPR press.
• Corten, O., & Koutroulis, V. (2023), The 2022 Russian intervention in Ukraine: What is its impact on the interpretation of jus contra bellum? Leiden Journal of International Law, 36(4), 997–1022. doi:10.1017/S0922156523000249
• Dag, R. (2022), Geopolitical Struggle between Russia and Turkey: The Intersection of Ukraine and Syrian Crises. The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development, 12(2), 150-161.
• Dag, R. and Tufekci, O. (2022), Introduction to Trends and Transformation in World Politics. In Tufekci O. and Dag R. (Eds) Trends and Transformation in World Politics. Rowman: London, 1-26.
• Dag, R. and Tufekci, O. (2023), Introduction: Great Power Politics. In Dag R. and Tufekci O. (Eds), Great Power Politics in Greater Eurasia: Regional Alliances, Institutions, Projects, and Conflicts. Rowman: London, 1-20.
• D’Anieri, P. J. (1999), Economic interdependence in Ukrainian-Russian relations. SUNY Press.
• De Bruin, E., Voetelink, J., & Klomp, J. (2024), Does the Russia Sanctions Revolution Bring About Change?. In (eds) Rothman, M., Peperkamp, L., & Rietjens, S. Reflections on the Russia-Ukraine war. Leiden University Press.
• Deni, J. R. and Aronsson, L. A. (2024), The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24 Carlisle Barracks, PA: US Army War College Press. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/972
• Diesen, G. (2024), The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order. Clarity Press.
• Düben, B. A. (2024), China’s reaction to the Russia–Ukraine war: A test case for a global ‘Pax Sinica’?. Global Policy, 15/4, 773-777.
• Finnemore, M. (1996), National interests in international society. Cornell University Press.
• Frederick, B., Cozad, M., & Stark, A. (2023), Understanding the risk of escalation in the war in Ukraine. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA2807-1.html
• German, T. (2025), Georgia and Ukraine, In J. Sperling & M. Webber (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of NATO (798–813). Oxford University Press.
• Ikenberry, G. J. (2024), Three Worlds: The West, East and South and the competition to shape global order. International Affairs, 100/1, 121-138.
• Jervis, R. (1979), Deterrence theory revisited. World Politics, 31/2, 289-324.
• Jessop, B. (2007), State power. Polity.
• Knodt, M., Ringel, M., & Bruch, N. (2024), Secure and Sustainable? Unveiling the Impact of the Russian War on EU energy governance. In The War Against Ukraine and the EU: Facing New Realities (133-159). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland.
• Legro, J. W., & Moravcsik, A. (2014), Is anybody still a realist? In The Realism Reader (505-517). Routledge.
• Mälksoo, M. (2024), NATO’s New Front: Deterrence Moves Eastward. International Affairs, 100/2, 531-547.
• Morgenthau, H. (1948), Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Knopf.
• Morse, J. C., & Coggins, B. (2024), Your silence speaks volumes: Weak states and strategic absence in the UN General Assembly. The Review of International Organizations, 19/3, 515-544.
• Nadkarni, V., D’Anieri, P., Kerr, S., Sharafutdinova, G., Pu, X., Ollapally, D. M., ... & Divsallar, A. (2024), The Russia–Ukraine War and Reactions from the Global South. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 17/4, 449-489.
• Nissen, C., & Dreyer, J. (2024), From optimist to sceptical liberalism: reforging European Union foreign policy amid crises. International Affairs, 100/2, 675-690.
• Palavenis, D. (2025), NATO Enhanced Forward Presence in the Baltics: The Nexus between the Host and the Framework Nation. Security and Defence Quarterly, 49/1.
• Panda, S. K. (2024), Challenges and opportunities for European energy policy and sustainable transformations in the aftermath of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-22.
• Rosenberg, J. (2024), The empire of civil society: a critique of the realist theory of international relations. Verso Books.
• Saracino, D. (2024), The European Union’s response to the refugee movements from Ukraine: The end of the solidarity crisis?. Central and Eastern European Migration Review, 13/2, 179-200.
• Schmidt, B. C. (2007), Realism and Facets of Power in International Relations. Power in World Politics. London: Routledge, 43-63.
• Shevsky, D. (2022), Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine. In Handbook of revolutions in the 21st century: The new waves of revolutions, and the causes and effects of disruptive political change (851-863). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
• Singh, D. (2023), Russian Responses, the Invasion, Sanctions and International Law. In The Tripartite Realist War: Analysing Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine (121-207). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland.
• Tkachuk, I., and Tufekci, O. (2024), “Different Interpretations of Humanitarian (Imperialist) Intervention: The Cases of Ukraine and Libya”, Journal of Black Sea Studies, 18/36, 205-22.
• Tsouloufas, G., & Rochat, M. (2023), Revisiting the effectiveness of economic sanctions in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 29/3, 285-300.
• Von Hagen, M. (2014), From Imperial Russia to Colonial Ukraine. In: Healy, R., Lago, E.D. (eds) The Shadow of Colonialism on Europe’s Modern Past. Cambridge Imperial and Post-Colonial Studies Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London.
• Walt, S. M. (2010), “Realism and security”, In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies.
• Wolff, A. T. (2025), Who is NATO for? In J. Sperling & M. Webber (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of NATO (77–94). Oxford University Press
• Yılmaz, S., Kısacık, S., & Yorulmaz, M. (2024), “The Effects of Russia-Ukraine War on Ukranian Energy Security and European Energy Supply Security”, Adıyaman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 47, 859-887.
• Zhang, Z., Abdullah, M. J., Xu, G., Matsubae, K., & Zeng, X. (2023), Countries’ vulnerability to food supply disruptions caused by the Russia–Ukraine war from a trade dependency perspective. Scientific Reports, 13/1, 16591.
• Zhou, X. Y., Lu, G., Xu, Z., Yan, X., Khu, S. T., Yang, J., & Zhao, J. (2023), Influence of Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Energy and Food Security. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 188, 106657.