TÜRKIYE VE BALKAN ÜLKELERI ARASINDAKI DIŞ TICARETIN ÇEKIM MODELI ILE ANALIZI

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 10, 382 - 407, 01.08.2017

Ercan Yaşar İlhan Korkmaz

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ve 10 Balkan ülkesi arasındaki ticaret ilişkisini 2006-2016 yılları arası verileri kullanarak çekim modeli yardımıyla analiz etmektir. Bu kapsamda Türkiye ile sözkonusu Balkan ülkeleri arasındaki ihracat ve ithalat değerleri bağımlı değişken olarak analize dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmamızın bağımsız değişkenleri kişi başına düşen Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla GSYH cari US$ ve Türkiye ile Balkan ülkelerinin başkentleri arasındaki uzaklıklardır. 2006-2016 yılları arası yapılan analiz sonuçlarına bakıldığında Türkiye ile Balkan ülkeleri arasındaki ticaretin açıklanmasında çekim modelinin anlamlı sonuçlar verdiği ifade edilebilir. Bunun anlamı, Türkiye ile Balkan ülkelerinin GSYH’ları ile ifade edilen kütleleri, arttığında aralarındaki ticaret de artmaktadır. Temel çekim modeline ek olarak, Türkiye ile Balkanlar arasındaki ticareti etkileyen diğer faktörleri kukla değişkenler kullanarak incelenmiştir. Bulgulara göre Balkan ülkelerinin AB üyeliği, ortak dile ve kolonyal geçmişe sahip olma, Türkiye ile Balkanlar arasındaki ticarette etkili faktörlerdir. Çalışma ayrıca Bulgaristan, Slovenya, Bosna-Hersek ile Türkiye arasında kullanılmayan bir ticaret potansiyelinin olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Bu potansiyelin değerlendirilmesi durumunda Türkiye ve Balkan ülkeleri karşılıklı olarak menfaat elde edebilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Balkan Yarımadası, Dış Ticaret, Ticaret Potansiyeli, Çekim Modeli, PCSE.

ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN TRADE BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE BALKAN COUNTRIES WITH GRAVITY MODEL

Öz

The aim of this paper is to analyze trade relationship between Turkey and 10 Balkan countries between 2006-2016 period by using gravity model approach. We used both export and import values between Turkey and Balkan countries as dependent variables. Our independent variables are Gross Domestic Product GDP current US$ and distance between capital cities of Turkey and other Balkan countries. It can be stated that the gravity model of trade between Turkey and Balkan countries holds for 2006 and 2016 period. That means the trade potential between Turkey and Balkan countries increases if the masses, represented by the GDP, of these countries increases. In addition to base gravity model, the other factors effecting trade between Turkey and the Balkansa are examined by using dummy variables. According to the findings EU membership of Balkan countries, having common language and colonial past are influential factors on trade between Turkey and the Balkans. Study also indicates that there are unused trade potential especially between Bulgaria, Slovenia, Bosnia Herzigovina and Turkey. Utilization of this potential can provide mutual benefits for Turkey and Balkan countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Balkan Peninsula, Foreign Trade, Trade Potential, Gravity Model, PCSE.

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