Predictive Accuracy of the CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF Score in Determining One-Year Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Non-ST-Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Retrospective Study

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 1, 27 - 37, 01.04.2020

Muhsin Kalyoncuoğlu Gündüz Durmuş Erdal Belen Mehmet Can

Öz

Introduction: To investigate the predictive accuracy of the CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF score in predicting the one-year mortality and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) in patients with non-STelevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS).

Patients and Methods: In this retrospective study, the study cohort was divided in to two groups based on the median CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF score: low-risk group (≤ 4 points) and high-risk group (> 4 points).

Results: We enrolled 394 patients with NSTE-ACS (mean age: 58.7 ± 11.8 years). The CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF score independently predicted the coronary artery disease (CAD) severity (p< 0.01), one-year mortality (p< 0.01), and MACCEs (p< 0.01). The Global Registry for Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (GRS 1.0) independently predicted the CAD severity (p< 0.01), whereas the revised GRACE 2.0 risk score (GRS 2.0) independently predicted the one-year mortality (p< 0.01) and MACCEs (p< 0.01). The diagnostic performance of CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF was similar to GRS 2.0 in predicting the one-year mortality and MACCEs [area under the curve (AUC), 0.75 and 0.69 vs. 0.78 and 0.67; p= 0.41, p= 0.38, respectively) and better than GRS 1.0 for the CAD severity (AUC, 0.85 vs. 0.79; p= 0.03). The Kaplan-Meier curves displayed significantly higher one-year mortality and MACCEs in the high-risk group (p< 0.01) compared with the low-risk group (p< 0.01).

Conclusion: The predictive accuracy of CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF is comparable to that of GRS 2.0 in determining the long-term cardiovascular outcomes; thus, it could be considered as a predictive model for patients with NSTE-ACS.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome, CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF, GRACE risk score, mortality

ST-Yükselmesiz Akut Koroner Sendromlu Hastalarda Bir Yıllık Kardiyovasküler Sonuçların Belirlenmesinde CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF Skorunun Prediktif Değeri: Retrospektif Bir Çalışma

Öz

Giriş: Bu çalışmada esas olarak modifiye CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF skorunun ST-yükselmesiz akut koroner sendromlu (STYz-AKS) hastalarda bir yıllık mortalite ve majör advers kardiyak ve serebrovasküler olayları (MACCEs) öngörüp öngörmediğini araştırmayı amaçladık.

Hastalar ve Yöntem: Hastane kayıtları kullanılarak tasarlanmış bu retrospektif çalışmada, çalışma popülasyonu ortanca CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF skoruna göre düşük (≤ 4 puan) ve yüksek riskli (> 4 puan) olarak iki gruba ayrılmıştır.

Bulgular: Çalışmaya ortalama 58.7 ± 11.8 yaşında olan 394 STYz-AKS hastası dahil edilmiştir. CHA2 DS2 - VASc-HSF skoru, koroner arter hastalığı (KAH) yaygınlığının, bir yıllık mortalitenin ve MACCEs’in bağımsız öngördürücüsü olarak bulunmuştur (sırasıyla, p< 0.01, p< 0.01, p< 0.01). Ayrıca “The Global Registry for Acute Coronary Events (GRACE)” 1.0 risk skorunun KAH yaygınlığı için (p< 0.01), güncellenmiş GRACE 2.0 risk skorunun ise bir yıllık mortalite ve MACCEs için bağımsız öngördürücü olduğunu saptadık (sırasıyla, p< 0.01, p< 0.01). CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF ve GRACE 2.0 risk skorlarının bir yıllık mortalite ve MACCEs’i öngörmede tanısal performanları istatistiksel olarak birbirine benzer iken [eğri altında kalan alan (AUC)= 0.75 ve 0.69 vs. 0.78 ve 0.67; sırasıyla, p= 0.41, p= 0.38), CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF KAH şiddetini öngörmede GRACE 1.0 risk skorundan daha iyi performans sergiledi (AUCs= 0.85 vs. 0.79; p= 0.03). Kaplan-Meier eğrisi CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF skoru > 4 puan olan hastalarda düşük riskli hastalara göre bir yıllık mortalite ve MACCEs’in istatistiksel olarak anlamlı derecede daha yüksek olduğunu gösterdi (sırasıyla, p< 0.01, p< 0.01).

Sonuç: CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF’nin uzun dönem kardiyovasküler sonuçları öngörmedeki doğruluğu GRACE 2.0 ile kıyaslanabilir düzeyde olup klinik uygulamada STYz-AKS hastaları için bir tahmin modeli olarak düşünülebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ST-yükselmesiz akut koroner sendrom, CHA2 DS2 -VASc-HSF, GRACE risk skoru, mortalite

Kaynakça

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