Fighting Fire with Fire? An Assesment of the Potential Threats of Westerners Fighting against ISIS in Syria and Iraq

Öz

Since the Syrian Civil War began in 2011, tens of thousands of foreign fighters from different parts of the world have joined various armed groups in Syria and Iraq. There are three main groups of foreign fighters: Firstly, pro-ISIS foreign fighters who are associated with jihadist groups like Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS); secondly, pro-regime Shiite foreign fighters who are affiliated with the Assad government; and finally, anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters, fighting with Kurdish and Christian groups against ISIS and other jihadist groups. This study aims at assessing the potential threats that anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters may pose to international security and to their home countries. In line with this purpose, this study contributes to our recognition of anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters, conducts a threat assessment based on capabilities and intents of anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters and presents recommendations on how international organizations and Western governments should manage the issue of anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ISIS Anti-ISIS Western Foreign Fighters Threat Assessment

Fighting Fire with Fire? An Assessment of the Potential Threats of Westerners Fighting against ISIS in Syria and Iraq Ateşe Ateşle Karşılık Vermek? Suriye ve Irak'ta IŞİD'e Karşı Savaşan Batılıların Oluşturduğu Potansiyel Tehditlere İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Since the Syrian Civil War began in 2011, tens of thousands of foreign fighters from different parts of the world have joined various armed groups in Syria and Iraq. There are three main groups of foreign fighters: Firstly, pro-ISIS foreign fighters who are associated with jihadist groups like Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS); secondly, pro-regime Shiite foreign fighters who are affiliated with the Assad government; and finally, anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters, fighting with Kurdish and Christian groups against ISIS and other jihadist groups. This study aims at assessing the potential threats that anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters may pose to international security and to their home countries. In line with this purpose, this study contributes to our recognition of anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters, conducts a threat assessment based on capabilities and intents of anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters and presents recommendations on how international organizations and Western governments should manage the issue of anti-ISIS Western foreign fighters. 2011 yılında Suriye İç Savaşı’nın başlamasından bu yana, dünyanın farklı bölgelerinden on binlerce yabancı savaşçı Suriye ve Irak'ta çeşitli silahlı gruplara katıldı. Üç ana yabancı savaşçı grubu vardır: Birincisi, Irak ve Şam İslam Devleti (IŞİD) gibi cihatçı gruplarla bağlantılı olan IŞİD yanlısı yabancı savaşçılar; ikincisi, Esed hükümetine bağlı rejim yanlısı Şii yabancı savaşçılar; ve son olarak, IŞİD ve diğer cihatçı gruplara karşı Kürt ve Hıristiyan gruplarla birlikte savaşan IŞİD karşıtı Batılı yabancı savaşçılar. Bu çalışma, IŞİD karşıtı Batılı yabancı savaşçıların uluslararası güvenliğe ve kendi ülkelerine karşı oluşturabilecekleri potansiyel tehditleri değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaca uygun olarak, bu çalışma, IŞİD karşıtı Batılı yabancı savaşçıları tanımamıza katkıda bulunmakta, IŞİD karşıtı Batılı yabancı savaşçıların yetenek ve niyetlerine dayalı bir tehdit değerlendirmesi yapmakta ve uluslararası kuruluşların ve Batılı hükümetlerin IŞİD karşıtı Batılı yabancı savaşçılar konusunu nasıl yönetmeleri gerektiğine dair öneriler sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ISIS
• Anti-ISIS Western Foreign Fighters
• Threat Assessment
• Radicalization
• International Security
• IŞİD
• IŞİD Karşıtı Batılı Yabancı Savaşçılar
• Tehdit Değerlendirmesi
• Radikalleşme
• Uluslararası Güvenlik

Kaynakça

1. Amarasingam, A. and Dawson, L. (2018). “I left to be closer to Allah” Learning about foreign fighters from family and friends. Institute for Strategic Dialogue. http://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Families_Report.pdf
2. AMW English. (2019, March 4). Attacks against police station and Turkish Consulate in Greece. https://www.amwenglish.com/articles/attacks-against-police-department-and-turkish-consulate-in-greece/
3. Anarchistsworldwide. (2019, December 30). Thessaloniki, Greece: Turkish Diplomatic Vehicle Torched by Revolutionary Solidarity Commando Haukur Hilmarsson. Anarchists Worldwide. https://anarchistsworldwide.noblogs.org/post/2019/12/30/thessaloniki-greece-turkish-diplomatic-vehicle-torched-by-revolutionary-solidarity-commando-haukur-hilmarsson/
4. Arroyo, E. (2016, January 28). La Policía halla armas y material para explosivos en la sede de Reconstrucción Comunista [The Police find weapons and material for explosives at the headquarters of Communist Reconstruction]. El Español. https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20160128/97990255_0.html
5. Atlantico. (n.d.). Ultragauche: les profils atypiques des individus récemment interpellés qui projetaient une attaque violente contre la police. [Ultra-left the atypical profiles of recently arrested individuals who planned a violent attack on the police]. Atlantico.fr. https://www.atlantico.fr/article/pepite/ultragauche--les-profils-atypiques-des-individus-recemment-interpelles-qui-projetaient-une-attaque-violente-contre-la-police
6. Bakker, E. and de Roy van Zuijdewijn, J. (2015). Jihadist foreign fighter phenomenon in Western Europe: A low-probability, high-impact threat. Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Studies. https://doi.org/10.19165/2015.1.09
7. Bakker, E. and Singleton, M. (2016). Foreign Fighters in the Syria and Iraq Conflict: Statistics and Characteristics of a Rapidly Growing Phenomenon. Foreign Fighters under International Law and Beyond, 9–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-099-2_2
8. Barrett, R. (2014). Foreign Fighters in Syria. The Soufan Group. http://soufangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/TSG-Foreign-Fighters-in-Syria.pdf

9. Bauer, S. (2019, October 8). I went to Syria and met the people Trump just gave Turkey permission to kill. Mother Jones. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/10/syria-kurds/
10. Bell, S. (2016, April 29). A secretive unit of international veterans went on its first anti-ISIL mission last fall. Hours later, a Canadian was dead. National Post. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/the-223-a-secretive-unit-of-international-veterans-went-on-its-first-mission-against-isil-last-november-hours-later-a-canadian-was-dead
11. Blake, M. (2017, February 9). Blackburn activist becomes first British woman to join fight against Isis in Syria. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/09/blackburn-activist-kimberly-taylor-becomes-first-british-woman-join-fight-isis-syria
12. Bradley, M. and Parkinson, J. (2015, July 24). America’s Marxist allies against ISIS. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-marxist-allies-against-isis-1437747949
13. Brynielsson, J., Horndahl, A., Johansson, F., Kaati, L., Mårtenson, C. and Svenson, P. (2013). Harvesting and analysis of weak signals for detecting lone wolf terrorists. Security Informatics, 2(1), 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/2190-8532-2-11
14. Byman, D. L. (2014, January 12). The foreign policy essay: Syria's other foreign fighters. Lawfare. https://www.lawfareblog.com/foreign-policy-essay-syrias-other-foreign-fighters.
15. Byman, D. and Shapiro, J. (2014). Be afraid. Be a little afraid: The threat of terrorism from western foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq. Foreign Policy at Brookings [Policy Paper No. 34]. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Be-Afraid-web.pdf
16. Cetti-Roberts, M. (2015, March 7). Inside the Christian Militias Defending the Nineveh Plains. War is Boring. https://medium.com/war-is-boring/inside-the-christian-militias-defending-the-nineveh-plains-fe4a10babeed
17. Coles, I. (2015, February 15). Westerners join Iraqi Christian militia to fight Islamic State. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-foreignfighters/westerners-join-iraqi-christian-militia-to-fight-islamic-state-idUSKBN0LJ0LI20150215
18. Council of the European Union. (2021, June 28). EU action to counter left-wing and anarchist violent extremism and terrorism: Discussion paper. https://www.statewatch.org/media/2555/eu-council-violent-left-wing-extremism-ctc-paper-10101-21.pdf
19. Dearden, L. (2016, April 22). Isis documents leak reveals profile of average militant as young, well-educated but with only 'basic' knowledge of Islamic law. The Independent. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-documents-leak-reveals-profile-of-average-militant-as-young-well-educated-but-with-only-basic-a6995111.html
20. De Craemer, S. (2017). Strange comrades: Non-Jihadist foreign fighters in Iraq & Syria. Universiteit Gent. https://www.scriptiebank.be/sites/default/files/thesis/2017-10/Simon_De_Craemer_-_Strange_Comrades.pdf
21. Dehghanpisheh, B. (2015, December 10). Iran recruits Pakistani Shi’ites for combat in Syria. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-pakistan-iran/iran-recruits-pakistani-shiites-for-combat-in-syria-idUSKBN0TT22S20151210
22. Didziulis, V. (2016, July 15). How to volunteer to fight ISIS in Syria, in eight steps. Fusion. https://fusion.tv/story/324193/fight-isis-syria-war-kurds/
23. Dodwell, B., Milton, D. and Rassler, D. (2016). The Caliphate’s global workforce: An inside look at the Islamic State’s foreign fighter paper trail. Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=803910
24. Enough14. (2017, April 8). Interview with IRPGF comrades: “The IRPGF will be there to fight and work within social revolutions around the world. Enough 14. https://enoughisenough14.org/2017/04/08/interview-with-irpgf-comrades-the-irpgf-will-be-there-to-fight-and-work-within-social-revolutions-around-the-world/
25. Enough14. (2018, March 10). #YPG international: The Game is now on. And the battle ground is the entire world now. Enough 14. https://enoughisenough14.org/2018/03/11/ypg-international-the-game-is-now-on-and-the-battle-ground-is-the-entire-world-now/
26. Europol. (2019, June 28). European Union terrorism situation and trend report 2019. https://www.europol.europa.eu/activities-services/main-reports/terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-2019-te-sat
27. Fight4Afrin. (2018a, March 8). Call. https://fight4afrin.noblogs.org/pagina-di-esempio/
28. Fight4Afrin. (2018b, March 14). Breaking the silence – Organize the resistance. https://fight4afrin.noblogs.org/breaking-the-silence-organize-the-resistance/
29. Fitzpatrick, M. (2020, December 12). Five suspected radical left activists held by French police on terror charges. RFI. https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20201212-five-suspected-radical-left-activists-held-by-french-police-on-terror-charges-weapons-explosives
30. Hader, T. and Forster, P. K. (2018, March 22). Virtual recruitment of foreign fighters and their threat upon return: The case of the Peshmerga and the People’s Protection Units. Small War Journal. http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/virtual-recruitment-foreign-fighters-and-their-threat-upon-return-case-peshmerga-and#_edn6
31. Harp, S. (2017, February 14). The anarchists vs. the Islamic State. Rolling Stone. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/american-anarchists-ypg-kurdish-militia-syria-isis-islamic-state-w466069
32. Hassan, H. (2017, July 15). Isis may be on its knees but it will rise again if we don’t break the cycle. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/15/isis-rise-again-defeat-mosul-islamic-state
33. Hegghammer, T. (2013). Should I stay or should I go? Explaining variation in Western Jihadists’ choice between domestic and foreign fighting. American Political Science Review, 107(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055412000615
34. Heistein, A. and West, J. (2015, November 20). Syria’s other foreign fighters: Iran’s Afghan and Pakistani mercenaries. The National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/syrias-other-foreign-fighters-irans-afghan-pakistani-14400
35. Henderson, P. (2014, October 30). Iraq’s Christian paramilitaries split in IS fight. Al-Monitor. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/10/iraq-christian-paramilitary-forces-nineveh.html
36. Hennessy-Fiske, M. (2019, June 20). Two buddies survived fighting Islamic State, but for one civilian life was too much. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-marine-syria-volunteer-fighter-suicide-20190620-htmlstory.html
37. Hromadske International. (2017, May 10). Austrian suspected of war crimes in Ukraine. We talked to his co-fighters. https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/austrian-suspected-of-war-crimes-in-ukraine-we-talked-to-his-co-fighters
38. Human Rights Watch. (2016, January 29). Iran sending thousands of Afghans to fight in Syria. https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/01/29/iran-sending-thousands-afghans-fight-syria
39. Ibrahim, A. (2018, January 24). Foreign fighters join YPG fight against Turkey in Afrin. Middle East Eye. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/foreign-fighters-join-ypg-fight-against-turkey-afrin
40. Iceland Review. (2018, March 10). Haukur Hilmarsson’s death confirmed. https://www.icelandreview.com/news/haukur-hilmarssons-death-confirmed/
41. Institute for Economics & Peace. (2019, November). Global terrorism index 2019 Measuring the impact of terrorism. https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GTI-2019-web.pdf
42. International Peshmerga Volunteers. (n.d.). What we do. https://intlpv.org/what-we-do
43. It’s Going Down. (2017, April 28). Building anarchist forces: The IRPGF and the international struggle. https://itsgoingdown.org/building-anarchist-forces-irpgf-international-struggle/
44. Jaklin, D. C. (2015). Western volunteer fighters fighting Daesh-background and possible implications. Austria Institut für Europa und Sicherheitspolitik Fokus. https://www.aies.at/download/2015/AIES-Fokus-2015-07.pdf
45. Jayakumar, S. (2019). Transnational Volunteers Against ISIS. International Center for Study of Radicalization. https://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/ICSR-Report-Transnational-Volunteers-Against-ISIS.pdf
46. Koch, A. (2019). The non-Jihadi foreign fighters: Western right-wing and left-wing extremists in Syria. Terrorism and Political Violence, 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1581614
47. Krohn, J. (2015, February 18). Western volunteers rally to Iraq Christian militia. Yahoo. https://www.yahoo.com/news/western-volunteers-rally-iraq-christian-militia-005949324.html
48. Levenson, M. (2021, May 7). Former infantryman is convicted of threatening right-wing protesters. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/us/trump-daniel-baker-florida-capitol-plot.html
49. MailOnline. (2017, March 8). Fight IS, start 'revolution': Why foreigners join Syria Kurds. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-4292408/Fight-IS-start-revolution-Why-foreigners-join-Syria-Kurds.html
50. Malet, D. (2015, July 5). What does the evidence tell us about the impact of foreign fighters on home-grown radicalization? Radicalisation Research. http://www.radicalisationresearch.org/debate/malet-foreign-fighters-home-grown-radicalization/
51. Mans, K. and Tuitel, R. (2016). Foreign fighters in their own words: Using YouTube as a source. The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague. https://icct.nl/publication/foreign-fighters-in-their-own-words-using-youtube-as-a-source/
52. McNulty, N. (2015, December 31). Born dead. Boulder Weekly. http://www.boulderweekly.com/news/born-dead/
53. Meloy, J. R., Mohandie, K., Knoll, J. L. and Hoffmann, J. (2015). The concept of identification in threat assessment. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 33(2-3), 213–237. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2166
54. Mezzofiore, G., Qiblawi, T. and Dewan, A. (2018, January 24). Foreign fighters in Syria turn their weapons on Turkey. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/24/middleeast/turkey-syria-foreign-fighters-kurds-intl/index.html
55. Middle East Monitor. (2018, February 9). Ex-YPG fighter faces terrorism charge in Britain. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180209-ex-ypg-fighter-faces-terrorism-charge-in-britain/
56. Nelson, S. (2015, February 6). Iraqi Christians form Anti-ISIS militia, and you can legally chip in. US News & World Report. https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/02/06/iraqi-christians-form-anti-isis-militia-and-you-can-legally-fund-them
57. Neuhof, F. (2015, July 13). Anti-ISIS foreign legion: Ex-Skinheads and angry white men swell ranks of Christian militia fighting Islamic State. International Business Times. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/anti-isis-foreign-legion-ex-skinheads-angry-white-men-swell-ranks-christian-militia-fighting-1510550
58. Obe, R. B. and Silverman, T. (2014). Western foreign fighters: Innovations in responding to the threat. Institute for Strategic Dialogue. https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/ISDJ2784_ Western_foreign_fighters_V7_WEB.pdf
59. Orton, K. [@KyleWOrton]. (2018a, March 11). Twitter. https://twitter.com/KyleWOrton/status/972827899245092865?s=20
60. Orton, K. (2018b). The secular foreign fighters of the West in Syria. Insight Turkey, 20(3), 157–177. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2018203.12
61. Pakistan Defence. (2018, March 11). Germany: Apoist Youth Initiative – ‘Bring the war in Afrin to the streets of Europe on 12.03.18!’. https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/germany-apoist-youth-initiative-bring-the-war-in-afrin-to-the-streets-of-europe-on-12-03-18.548101/
62. Parhlo. (2015, January 7). Florida surf instructor who gave up his job to fight ISIS returns home in 10 weeks! Parhlo. https://www.parhlo.com/florida-surf-instructor-gave-job-fight-isis-returns-home-10-weeks/
63. Patin, N. (2015). The other foreign fighters: An open-source investigation into American volunteers fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Bellingcat. https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/The-Other-Foreign-Fighters1.pdf
64. Peshmerganor. (n.d.). A source for news about the fight against ISIS and other conflicts in the Middle-East, brought to you. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/peshmerganor/
65. Peshmerganor. (n.d.). Mike. Instagram. https://www.instagram.com/peshmerganor/
66. Rabasa, A., Pettyjohn, S. L., Ghez, J. and Boucek, C. (2010, November 9). Deradicalizing Islamist Extremists. Www.rand.org. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG1053.html
67. Radicalisation Awareness Network. (2017). RAN manual responses to returnees: Foreign terrorist fighters and their families. Radicalisation Awareness Network Centre of Excellence. https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites/homeaffairs/files/ran_br_a4_m10_en.pdf
68. Ridley, M. (2017, March 20). 'I'd rather die knowing I'd Tried'. The Sun. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3128985/steve-kerr-a-former-soldier-with-isis-bounty-on-his-head-reveals-why-hes-crowdfunding-a-third-tour-of-syria-to-fight-jihadis-alongside-kurdish-rebels/
69. Rodricks, D. (2015, February 23). Baltimore man helps Christian militia fight ISIS in Iraq. Baltimoresun. http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-rodricks-0224-20150223-column.html
70. Schuurman, B., Bakker, E., Gill, P. and Bouhana, N. (2018). Lone actor terrorist attack planning and preparation: A data-driven analysis. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 63(4), 1191–1200. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.13676
71. Schuurman, B. and Eijkman, Q. (2015). Indicators of terrorist intent and capability: Tools for threat assessment. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, 8(3), 215–231. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2015.1040426
72. Seldin, J. (2019, September 30). White supremacists lead new wave of foreign fighters. Voice of America. https://www.voanews.com/usa/white-supremacists-lead-new-wave-foreign-fighters
73. Shammas, B. and Vynck, G. D. (2021, February 14). The FBI warned about far-right attacks. Agents arrested a leftist ex-soldier. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/02/14/fbi-arrest-left-wing-violence/
74. Shoutwiki. (2017, May). Dossier on Benjamin Fischer, suspected of having committed war crimes in Ukraine. http://images.shoutwiki.com/acloserlookonsyria/4/45/IDENTITY_OF_THE_AUSTRIAN_WAR_CRIMINAL.pdf
75. Solmaz, M. (2018, March 15). YPG supporters attack CDU office, German military, European bank and defense companies. Daily Sabah. https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2018/03/15/ypg-supporters-attack-cdu-office-german-military-european-bank-and-defense-companies
76. Taylor, A. (2015, February 4). These little-noticed foreign fighters may be tipping the balance in Syria. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/02/04/these-little-noticed-foreign-fighters-may-be-tipping-the-balance-in-syria/?utm_term=.a3a111d88fde
77. Telesur. (2015, June 12). 400 foreign fighters join Syria's YPG. https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/400-Foreign-Fighters-Join-Syrias-YPG-20150612-0015.html
78. The Carter Center. (2015, December). Overview of Daesh’s online recruitment propaganda magazine, Dabiq. https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/peace/conflict_resolution/countering-isis/dabiq-report-12-17-15.pdf
79. The Carter Center. (2017, February 27). Foreign volunteers for the Syrian Kurdish forces. https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/peace/conflict_resolution/syria-conflict/foreign-volunteers-for-syrian-kurdish-forces-2017.02.23.pdf
80. Tuck, H., Silverman, T. and Smalley, C. (2016). “Shooting in the right direction”: Anti-ISIS foreign fighters in Syria & Iraq horizons series no. 1. Institute for Strategic Dialogue. https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/ISD-Report-Shooting-in-the-right-direction-Anti-ISIS-Fighters.pdf United States of America v. Daniel Alan Baker NDFL, 4:21mj9-MAF (N.D. Florida 2021). https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndfl/press-release/file/1355291/download
81. van Wilgenburg, W. (2019, May 02). Former American YPG volunteer’s suicide raises trauma concerns. Kurdistan24. https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/84bd32d4-15cd-4f8f-b5f9-d2def8fe9065
82. Vice. (2017, June 2). Greek anarchists are helping Kurdish forces fight ISIS. https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/gypbv4/greek-anarchists-are-helping-kurdish-forces-fight-isis
83. Wallace, D. (2021, January 17). FBI arrest Florida “hardcore leftist” who plotted armed attack on pro-Trump protesters at state Capitol. Fox News. https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-florida-hardcore-leftist-armed-attack-trump-supporters-state-capitol-tallahassee-antifa
84. Weggemans, D., Peters, R., Bakker, E. and de Bont, R. (2016). Destination Syria: An exploratory study into the daily lives of Dutch ‘Syria travellers’. Institute of Security and Global Affairs-Leiden University. https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/binaries/content/assets/governance-and-global-affairs/isga/destination-syria.pdf