Yüksek Kuzeyde Düşük Gerilimli Ayaz Savaş : NATO'ya Yönelik Sonuçlar

Öz

Yaklaşık son yirmi yıllık süreçte, Arktika bölgesinde buzulların hızlı bir şekilde erimesi, zengin doğal kaynaklara ve deniz yollarına erişimi kolaylaştırmış ve bölgeyi kızışan küresel rekabetin kendini gösterdiği bir alan haline getirmiştir. NATO’nun iki büyük rakibi olan Rusya ve Çin, gittikçe buzdan arınan Yüksek Kuzey’in ekonomik ve güvenlik yansımalarını etkili bir şekilde etüt etmekte ve bölgedeki konumlarını geliştirmek için uzun soluklu politikalar sürdürmektedir. Rusya’nın savunma duruşu ve Çin’in artan ekonomik varlığı, ittifakın kuzey kanadına ve genel olarak kuzeydeki güvenlik ortamına tehdit teşkil etmektedir. Yüksek Kuzey’de şiddeti artan rekabet, NATO için önemli sonuçlar doğurmaktadır ve ittifak, daha önce olmadığı kadar müteyakkız olması gereken bir süreçten geçmektedir. Bu çalışma, analitik bir yaklaşımla, NATO ve rakipleri arasında Yüksek Kuzey’de cereyan eden küresel rekabetin dinamiklerine ve arka planına bakış sunmakta ve NATO için sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arktika
• Yüksek Kuzey
• Arktika’da NATO
• Arktika’da Rusya
• Arktika’da Çin.

Chilly War in the High North under Low Tension: Implications for NATO

Öz

Over the past couple of decades, the rapid ice melt in the Arctic has facilitated access to the rich natural resources and shipping routes thereby turning the region once again into a ground for the showcase of an intensified global competition. As NATO’s two principal competitors, Russia and China have effectively recognized the security and economic implications of an incrementally ice-free High North and have been pursuing long-term policies to enhance their positions in the region. Russia’s defense posture and China’s increasing economic involvement in the region pose a great threat to NATO’s northern flank as well as the overall security environment in the north. The intensified rivalry in the High North has great implications for NATO and the alliance is going through times when it needs to be more vigilant than ever. Through an analytical approach, this study provides an insight into the dynamics and background of the High North offshoot of the global rivalry between NATO and its competitors and puts forward implications for NATO.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• The Arctic
• the High North
• NATO in the High North
• Russia in the High North
• China in the High North.

Kaynakça

1. Black, J. , Flanagan, S.J. , Germanovich, G. , Harris, R. , Ochmanek, D. , Favaro, M. , Galai, K. , Gloinson, E.K. (2020). Enhancing Deterrence and Defence on NATO's Northern
2. Flank. Santa Monica/Cambridge: RAND Corporation Publishing.
3. Humpert, M. and Raspotnik, A. (2012). The Future of Arctic Shipping Along the Transpolar Sea Route. Heininen, L. (Ed.), Arctic Yearbook 2012. Akureyri, Iceland: Northern ResearchForum, 281-307.
4. Sergunin, A. and Konyshev, V. (2016). Russia in the Arctic? Hard or Soft Power. Stuttgart: Verlag Publishing.
5. Akpınar, B.G. (2017). Uluslararası Hukuk Çerçevesinden Arktik Güvenliği Politikalarının Analizi: Rusya ve ABD Örneği. The Journal of Defense Sciences, 16 (2), 83-118.
6. Çevik, V.A. and Durukan, T. (2020). Çin’in Kuzey Kutbu’na Olan İlgisi: Kutup İpek Yolu. Akdeniz İİBF Journal, 20 (2), 254-262.
7. Çıtak, E. (2020). Arktik Bölgesi Siyaseti : Ottava Deklarasyonu’ndan Bugüne Aktör Politikaları ve Çin’in Kutup İpek Yolu Projesi. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 15 (10), 5438-5473.
8. Kartal, A.B. and Dağıstan, F. (2020). Çin Kaynakları Açısından Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti’nin Arktik Politikası: Yüksek Kuzey’de Kar Dragonu. The Journal of Security Strategies, 16 (34), 245-271.

9. Yıldız, G. and Çelik, H. (2019). Yeni Bir Egemenlik Mücadelesi Alanı Olarak Arktika: ABD-Rusya Rekabeti, Turkish Journal of Security Studies, 21 (1), 57-77.
10. Auerswald, D. (2020). NATO in the Arctic: Keep Its Role Limited, For Now. (12 October). https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/nato-in-the-arctic-keep-its-role-limited-for-now/ (Access Date: 12.04.2021).
11. Boulègue, M. (2019). Russia’s Military Posture in the Arctic: Managing Hard Power in a ‘Low Tension’ Environment. Chatham House Royal Institute of International Affairs Research Paper, June, https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2019-06-28-Russia-Military-Arctic_0.pdf (Access Date: 11.03.2021)
12. Bowman, L. and Xu, Q. (2020). China in the Arctic : Policies, Strategies, and Opportunities for Alaska. University of Alaska Fairbanks Center for Arctic Policy Studies, February, https://www.uaf.edu/caps/our-work/Bowman%20and%20Xu_2020_China%20in%20the%20Arctic_Final18Feb2020.pdf (12.03.2021).
13. Credi, O. , Marrone, A. and Menotti, R. (2020). NATO Toward 2030: A Resilient Alliance and its Main Priorities. https://www.iai.it/sites/default/ files/2020_aspen_iai.pdf (Access Date: 30.03.2021).
14. Danoy, J. and Maddox, M. (2020). Set NATO's Sights on the High North. In: Skaluba C. (Editor in Chief) (2020). NATO 20/2020 : Twenty Bold Ideas to Reimagine the Alliance After the 2020 US Election. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/NATO-20-2020-Twenty-bold-ideas-to-reimagine-the-alliance-after-the-2020-US-election.pdf (12.04.2021).
15. FIIA (2019). The Geostrategic Arctic: Hard security in the High North. (11 April), https://www.fiia.fi/sv/publikation/the-geostrategic-arctic?read (29.03.2021).
16. Grieger, G. (2018). China's Arctic Policy-How China Aligns Rights and Interests, European Parliamentary Research Service Briefing, May, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/620231/EPRS_BRI(2018)620231_EN.pdf (Access Date: 08.03.2021).
17. JWC (2021). Exercise STEADFAST DEFENDER 2021 Strategy And Scripting Workshops Held in Joint Warfare Centre. https://www.jwc.nato.int/articles/steadfast-defender-2021-workshops-jwc (Access Date:08.04.2021).
18. Laruelle, M. (2020). Russia's Arctic Policy: A Power Strategy and Its Limits. Russie.Nei.Visions, No.117, https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/laruelle_russia_arctic_policy_2020.pdf (Access Date: 02.02.2021).
19. Nilsen, T. (2021). Norway to Host Biggest Exercise Inside Arctic Circle Since Cold War (14 April). https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2021/04/norway-host-biggest-exercise-inside-arctic-circle-cold-war (15.04.2021)
20. O'Rourke, R. , Ramseur, J.L. , Comay, L.B. , Sheikh, P.A. , Frittelli J. , Tracy, B.S. , Keating-Bitonti, C. , Upton, H.F. , Leggett, J.A. (2021). Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress. Congressional Research Service Report. (Updated February 1) https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf (Access Date: 04.04.2021).
21. Rumer, E. , Sokolsky, R. and Stronski, P. (2021). Russia in the Arctic-A Critical Examination. Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Rumer_et_al_Russia_in_the_Arctic.pdf (Access Date: 02.04.2021).
22. Urban, O. (2015). Future of the Arctic Oil Reserves. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2015/ph240/urban2/ (Access Date: 08.07.2021).
23. Woolf, A.F. (2020). Russia’s Nuclear Weapons: Doctrine, Forces, and Modernization. Congressional Research Service Report, (Updated July 20) https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf (Access Date: 08.04.2021).
24. Arctic Centre (2021). Map of the Arctic Administrative Issues. https://www.arcticcentre.org/EN/arcticregion/Maps/Administrative-areas (Accession Date: 18.03.2021).
25. Garamone, J. (2020). U.S.-British Arctic Exercise Shows U.S. Concern for Region. (07 May), https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2180254/ us-british-arctic-exercise-shows-us-concern-for-region/ (Access Date: 04.04.2021).
26. Kazakoğlu, C. (2014). 8 Ülkenin Gözü Neden 'Kutup Bölgesi'nde?. (20 Şubat) BBC News, .https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2014/02/140220_kutup_ dairesi_enerji (Access Date: 18.03.2021).
27. Kundu, A. (2021). As Suez Canal Remains Blocked, Russia Promotes Northern Sea Route.26.03.2021.https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/as-suez-canal-remains-blocked-russia-promotes-northern-sea-route (Access Date: 11.04.2021).
28. MARCOM PAO (2020). NATO Begins Cooperation with Danish Joint Arctic Command in Greenland. 01.10.2020. https://mc.nato.int/media-centre/news/2020/nato-begins-cooperation-with-danish-joint-arctic-command-in-greenland (Access Date:11.04.2021).
29. Marines (2020). U.S. Forces to Hone Arctic Warfare Skills in Norway's High North in Exercise Cold Response 20. 03.03.2020. https://www.marines.mil/News/News-Display/Article/2100494/us-forces-to-hone-arctic-warfare-skills-in-norways-high-north-in-exercise-cold/ (Access Date: 04.04.2021).
30. McCleary, P. (2020). US, NATO Warships Exercise Off Russia’s Arctic Coast. 08.09.2020. https://breakingdefense.com/2020/09/us-nato-warships-exercise-off-russias-arctic-coast/ (Access Date: 04.04.2021).
31. Naval News Staff (2021). Arctic Exercise Umka-2021 Shows Russian SSBN Can Deliver Massive Strike. 10.04.2021. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/04/arctic-exercise-umka-2021-shows-russian-ssbn-can-deliver-massive-strike/ (Access Date: 11.04.2021).
32. Rodrigue, J. (2021). Polar Shipping Routes. https://transportgeography.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-Polar-Routes-Simplified.pdf (Access Date: 13.03.2021)
33. Staalesen, A. (2019). As Russia Launches War Games Tsentr-2019, Arctic Troops Advance on Bolshevik Island. 16.09.2019. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2019/09/revanchist-forces-advance-bolshevik-island (Access Date: 02.03.2021).
34. The Economist (2014). The Arctic-Frozen Conflict. 20.12.2014. https://www.economist.com/international/2014/12/17/frozen-conflict (Access Date: 10.03.2021).
35. The Geography of Transport Systems (2021). Polar Shipping Routes. https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter1/transportation-and-space/polar-shipping-routes/ (Access Date: 13.03.2021).
36. The Straits Times (2018). China's polar ambitions cause anxiety. 20.02.2018. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-polar-ambitions-cause-anxiety (Access Date: 08.03.2021).
37. Walsh, N.P. (2021). Satellite Images Show Huge Russian Military Buildup in the Arctic. CNN News, 05.04.2021. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/05/europe/russia-arctic-nato-military-intl-cmd/index.html (Access Date: 08.04.2021). Ateş, O. (2017). Rusya Federasyonu’nun Arktika Politikası. Thesis of Master’s Degree. İstanbul University. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/
38. Dağıstan, F. (2020). Rusya Federasyonu’nun Vladimir Putin Dönemi Arktik Politikası. Thesis of Master’s Degree. İstanbul: University of National Defense. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/
39. Dal, A. (2020). From Conflict to Cooperation: Analyzing the Arctic Council as an Institution Constructing Stability. Thesis of PhD. Yalova University. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/
40. Genç, A. (2020). Arktika Bölgesi’nin Uluslararası Güvenlik Çerçevesinde İncelenmesi. Thesis of Master’s Degree. Muğla: Sıtkı Koçman University. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/
41. Gürcan, B. (2019). Çevresel Güvenlik ve İklim Değişikliği Çerçevesinde Devletlerin Arktik Bölgesindeki İddialarının Analizi. Thesis of Master’s Degree. İzmir: Ege University. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/
42. Khafizullina, E. (2019). Russia’s Arctic Region Policy Through Geopolitical Perspective. Thesis of Master’s Degree. Bursa: Uludağ University. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/
43. Limon, O. (2020). Yeni Enerji Havzalarının Ortaya Çıkmasının Kuzey Kutbu Arktika Jeopolitik Konumuna Etkileri. PhD Thesis. Edirne: Trakya University. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/