NATO Ülkelerinin Savunma Harcama Modellerine Göre Sınıflandırılması: Denetimsiz Bir Kümeleme Yaklaşımı

Öz

Son yıllarda savunma harcamaları çalışmalarına artan bir ilgi olmasına rağmen, literatürde savunma harcamalarının kompozisyonunun ampirik analizine gerekli ilgi gösterilmemiştir. Ancak sınırlı sayıda ampirik olmayan çalışma, bir ülkenin askerî bütçesinin bileşimini anlamanın, ekonomik durumu ve gelecekteki savunma stratejisi politika seçimleri hakkında dikkate değer bilgiler ortaya koyduğunu belirtmektedir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmanın amacı, NATO müttefiki ülkeler arasındaki savunma bütçesi tahsisindeki temel farklılıkları daha iyi anlamaktır. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek için K-Means kümeleme yaklaşımı kullanılmış ve NATO’nun dört ana savunma harcaması kategorisinden oluşan veri seti ile üç ana grup bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, sonuçların güvenilirliği hiyerarşik kümeleme ve K-Medoids yöntemleri gibi ek analizlerle kanıtlanmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, NATO ülkelerinin teçhizat yoğun harcamalar kümesi, personel yoğun harcamalar kümesi ve dengeli harcamalar kümesi olarak adlandırılabilecek üç gruba ayrılabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savunma Harcamaları
• Kümeleme Analizi
• NATO
• Denetimsiz Kümeleme
• Askerî Bütçe

Classification of the NATO Countries with Respect to Defence Spending Patterns: An Unsupervised Clustering Approach

Öz

Although there has been growing interest in defence expenditure studies in recent years, no necessary attention has been paid in literature to empirical analysis of composition of defence expenditure. However, limited number of non-empirical studies state that understanding composition of military budget of a country reveals remarkable insights about its economic condition and defence strategy policy choices in the future. The purpose of this study has been to gain further understanding of basic differences in defence budget allocation between NATO ally counties. To fulfil this aim, K-Means clustering approach is used and three main groups are found with the dataset of NATO that formed by four main defence expenditure categories. Moreover, the reliability of the results has been proven by additional analysis such as hierarchical clustering and K-Medoids methods. Empirical findings state that NATO countries could be categorised into three groups which are named as equipment intense expenditure cluster, personnel intense expenditure cluster, and balanced expenditure cluster.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Defence Expenditure
• Clustering Analysis
• NATO
• Unsupervised Clustering
• Military Budget

Kaynakça

1. Ballentine, K. and Sherman, J. (2003). The Political Economy of Armed Conflict: Beyond Greed and Grievance, London: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
2. Kaufman, L. and Rousseeuw, P.J. (1990). Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Cluster Analysis, New York: Wiley.
3. Tan, P. N., Steinbach, M., & Kumar, V. (2013). Introduction to Data Mining, Essex: Pearson.
4. Brauer, J. (1991) Military Investments and Economic Growth in Developing Nations, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39, 873–884.
5. Chairil, T., Sinaga, D., & Febrianti, A. (2013). Relationship Between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in ASEAN: Evidence from Indonesia, Journal of ASEAN Studies, 1(2), 106-121.
6. d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P. & Pieroni, L. (2017). Does Military Spending Matter for Long-Run Growth?, Defence and Peace Economics, 28(4), 429-436.
7. De Rezende, L. B., & Blackwell, P. (2020). The Brazilian National Defence Strategy: Defence Expenditure Choices and Military Power, Defence and Peace Economics, 31(7), 869- 884. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/ 10242694.2019.1588030.
8. Dudzevičiūtė, G., & Tamošiūnienė, R. (2015). Tendencies of Defence Expenditure and its Structural Changes in the European Union Countries, KSI Transactions on Knowledge Society, 8(1), 53-59.

9. Eryigit, S. B., Eryigit, K. Y., & Selen, U. (2012). The Long-Run Linkages Between Education, Health and Defence Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 559-574. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2012.663577.
10. Fetterly, L. C. R. (2007). Problems Inherent in the International Comparison of Defence Expenditure, Canadian Military Journal, 8(1), 89-92. http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vo8/no1/doc/fetterly-eng.pdf.
11. Hartigan, J. A., & Wong, M. A. (1979). Algorithm AS 136: A K-Means Clustering Algorithm, Journal of The Royal Statistical Society, series c (applied statistics), 28(1), 100-108.
12. Hartley, K., & Peacock, A. (1978). Combined Defence and International Economic Cooperation, World Economy, 1(3), 327-339.
13. MacQueen, J. (1967). Some Methods for Classification and Analysis of Multivariate Observations, In Proceedings of The Fifth Berkeley Symposium On Mathematical Statistics And Probability, 1(14), 281-297.
14. Minini, R., and Selem-Amachree, I. (2020). National Defence Expenditure and Its Implications on Economic Development in Nigeria, African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(1), 17-3. DOI: 10.52589/AJESD-4IWKVNSI.
15. Mohanty, R. K., Panda, S., and Bhuyan, B. (2020). Does Defence Spending And Its Composition Affect Economic Growth in India?, The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 14(1), 62-85. DOI: 10.1177/0973801019886486.
16. Stefan Borg (2020) Below the Radar. Examining A Small State’s Usage of Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Defence Studies, 20(3), 185-201, DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2020.1787159.
17. Wang, H. B., Li, Y., Ren, K., Yang, L. J., & Han, Z. H. (2021). The Development Status and Trends Of Ground Unmanned Combat Platforms. Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1721(1), 1-10. DOI: doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1721/1/012065.
18. Béraud-Sudreau, Lucie, Diego Lopes Da Silva, Alexandra Kuimova and Pieter D. Wezeman. (2021). Emerging Suppliers in The Global Arms Trade, 2020.
19. Solna:SIPRI.https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/202012/sipriinsight2013_emerging_suppliers.pdf This Article was taken from this website.
20. Kassambara, A. (2017). Practical Guide to Cluster Analysis In R: Unsupervised Machine Learning, STHDA. https://www.datanovia.com/en/product/ practical-guide-to-cluster-analysis-in-r/ This Article was taken from this website.
21. Martin, B., Tarraf, D. C., Whitmore, T. C., DeWeese, J., Kenney, C., Schmid, J., and DeLuca, P. (2019). Advancing Autonomous Systems: An Analysis of Current And Future Technology For Unmanned Maritime Vehicles, Rand Corporation. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD1086472 This Article was taken from this website.
22. Sezgin, S. (2003) Savunma Harcamaları, Terörizm ve Ekonomi. Stradigma Aylık Strateji ve Analiz Dergisi 5, http://www.stradigma.com/turkce/haziran2003/ makale_07.html This Article was taken from this website.
23. NATO. 2021. Press Release Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2021). Retrieved on 05.05.2021. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ news_182242.htm.