The Impact of Defense Expenses over Inflation in Turkey (1960-2017)

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 19/1 Sayı: 37, 125 - 157, 04.05.2020

Merve Asiloğulları

Öz

Since the early ages of history, states have worked to ensure the survival of their country and leave an economically and socially more developed and safer country to future generations. While there is no ratio that cannot be separated from the budget if the permanence of the country is under threat, the state budget does not consist of unlimited resources. States should allocate these limited resources at an optimal level that will increase the economic welfare of the country and not make the state vulnerable to internal and external threats. This need requires a careful consideration of the effects of macroeconomic indicators in the allocation of limited resources from the budget. For this purpose, the relationship between inflation and defense expenditures, which is one of the macroeconomic indicators, is examined in this study. For The impact of defense expenses over inflation in Turkey between 1960-2017 has been analyzed by ARDL bounds test. According to the results of the analysis, a long-term relationship was found between defense spending and inflation. This relation is that a 1% increase in defense expenditures has an effect of increasing inflation by 1.29%. However, this ratio is not statistically significant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Defense Expenditures, Inflation, ARDL Bound Test

Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamalarının Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi (1960-2017)

Öz

Tarihin ilk çağlarından beri devletler, ülkelerinin bekası ve gelecek nesillere ekonomik ve sosyal açıdan daha gelişmiş ve güvenli bir yurt bırakabilmek için emek harcamışlardır. Ülkenin geleceği söz konusuyken ayrılmayacak kaynak olmamakla beraber bu kaynakların sınırsız olmaması ülkelerin karar verme sürecinde göz önünde bulundurmak zorunda oldukları bir gerçektir. Devletler bu kısıtlı kaynakları ülkenin ekonomik refahını artıracak, devleti de iç ve dış tehditlere karşı kırılgan bir hale sokmayacak optimal bir düzeyde pay etmelidir. Bu ihtiyaç sınırlı kaynakların bütçeden tahsisinde makroekonomik göstergelerin etkilerini dikkate almayı gerektirmektedir. Bu amaçla bu çalışmada makroekonomik göstergelerden enflasyon ile savunma harcamaları ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Savunma harcamalarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi Türkiye için 1960-2017 dönemini kapsayacak şekilde ARDL sınır testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre birinci farkında durağanlaştırılan savunma harcaması ve enflasyon arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkiye rastlanmıştır. Bu ilişki savunma harcamalarında meydana gelebilecek %1’lik bir artışın enflasyonu %1,29 artırıcı bir etkisi olduğu şeklindedir. Fakat bu oran istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Savunma Harcamaları, Enflasyon

Kaynakça

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