Türkiye’de Terörizm Yabancı Yatırımları Baskılıyor mu? ARDL Sınır Testine Dayalı Ampirik Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 38, 23 - 42, 02.11.2020

Necmettin Çelik Rıza Bayrak

Öz

Türkiye’de terörizm yaklaşık elli yıldır inişli çıkışlı bir şekilde süregelmektedir. Bu süreçte, 4.000’in üzerinde terörist saldırı sebebiyle binlerce kişinin yaşamını yitirdiği ya da yaralandığı görülmektedir. Ancak, bu saldırıların görünür olmayan iktisadi maliyetleri ve zararları kısmen de olsa göz ardı edilmektedir. Bu doğrultuda yapılan çalışmada, 1998 - 2018 döneminde, terör saldırılarının, gelişmekte olan bir ülke olarak, Türkiye’ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektedir. Zaman serilerinde tek yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Zivot-Andrews Birim Kök Testi sonuçlarına göre oluşturulan ve tahmin edilen ARDL Sınır Testinin bulguları, ulusal düzeyde, terör olaylarıyla doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında ne kısa ne de uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı herhangi bir ilişki bulunmadığı yönündedir. Bu durumun muhtemel sebeplerinden biri, Türkiye’de gözlemlenen terör olaylarının sıklık, sertlik ve coğrafi yoğunluk derecesinin düşük olmasının yanı sıra iş dünyasını ve yatırımları hedef alma oranlarının da düşük olmasıdır. Ancak, terör olaylarının sıklıkla gözlemlendiği Türkiye’nin güneydoğusunda yer alan bölgeler üzerindeki muhtemel saptırıcı etkileri göz ardı edilmemelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Terrorizm, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, ARDL Sınır Testi, Türkiye

Does Terrorism Hinders Foreign Investments in Turkey? An Empirical Study with ARDL Bounds Test

Öz

Terrorism has been maintained for the last five decades in fluctuating frequency in Turkey. In this process, thousands of people have been killed or wounded in over 4.000 terrorist attacks. However, the intangible economic costs and damages of them were ignored partially. Accordingly, this study investigates the intangible economic aspects of the terrorist attacks in terms of foreign direct investments over the 1988-2018 period towards Turkey as a developing country. The findings of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test, which is designed by the results of Zivot-Andres Unit Root Test allowing a break in time series, indicate that there is not a statistically significant relationship between terrorist attacks and foreign direct investments both in the short-run and long-run at the national level. The low share of terrorist attacks targeting business and investments as well as the low frequency, severity and geographically concentration degree of them could be potential reasons for these findings. However, potentially destructive impacts of terrorist attacks, which are frequently observed in the southeast of Turkey, should not be ignorable.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Terrorism, Foreign Direct Investments, ARDL Bounds Test, Turkey

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