Risk Taking Behavior: a Review with a Behavioral EconomicsAangle

Yıl 2014, , 21 - 31, 01.06.2014

Umut Öneş

https://doi.org/10.1501/Kriz_0000000339

Öz

Cognitive biases effecting rationality of financial decisions have been attracting more and

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economics, Behavioral Psychology, Experimental Risk Assessment, Uncertainty

Risk alma davranışı: davranışsal iktisat açısından bir gözden geçirme

Öz

ABD emlak piyasası kaynaklı 2008 finansal krizinin etkileri sürerken, davranışsal iktisat yazınında finansal kararların rasyonelliğini etkileyen bilişsel sapmalara yönelik ilgi katlanarak artmıştır. Özellikle risk algısında ve risklerin gerçekçi değerlendirilmesinde sapmaların, krizin ortaya çıkışında önemli rol oynadığı bilinmektedir. Bu gözden geçirme çalışması, von Neuman ve Morgenstein’ın beklenen fayda teorisini ortaya atışından bu yana belirsizlik altında risk içeren kararların alınması konusunda davranış deneyleri bulgularını ele almaktadır. Risk alma davranışında tespit edilen bilişsel sapmalar ilişkin deneylerin sonuçlarıyla birlikte değerlendirilmekte, bu sonuçların sosyal bilimler dışında diğer disiplinler için de erişilebilinir bir şekilde ve olabildiğince kapsamlı olarak sunulması amaçlanmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

İktisat, Davranışsal Psikoloji, Deneysel Risk Değerlendirilmesi, Belirsizlik

Kaynakça

• Adelson M (2013). The deeper causes of the financial crisis: mortgages alone cannot explain it. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3): 16-31.
• Barberis N, Thaler R (2003) A survey of behavioral finance. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 1. Baskı, cilt 1, GM Constantinides, M Harris, RM Stulz (Ed): Elsevier, 1053-1128.
• Bell AM (2009) Approaching the genomics of risk-taking behavior. Adv Genet, 68: 83-104.
• Brancaccio, E (2011). Some contradictions in ‘mainstream’interpretations of the crisis. Brancaccio E. e Fontana G.(a cura di), The Global Economic Crisis. New Perspectives on the Critique of Economic Theory and Policy, Routledge, Londra.
• Biais B, Hilton D, Mazurier K ve ark. (2002) Psychological Traits and Trading Strategies. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3195.
• Breyer S (1993) Breaking the vicious circle: Toward effective risk regulation. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, s.135.
• Camerer CF (1989) An experimental test of several generalized utility theories. Journal of Risk and uncertainty, 2(1): 61-104.
• Camerer C, Lovallo D (1999) Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach. American economic review: 306-318.
• Cesarini D, Dawes CT, Johannesson M ve ark. (2010) Genetic Variation in Financial Decision-Making. The Journal of Finance, 65(5): 1725-1754.
• Conlisk J (1989) Three variants on the Allais example. The American Economic Review: 392- 407.
• Charness G, Gneezy U (2010) Portfolio choice and risk attitudes: An experiment. Economic Inquiry, 48(1): 133-146.
• De Bondt WF (1998) A portrait of the individual investor. European economic review, 42(3): 831- 844.
• Dunn BD, Dalgleish T, Lawrence AD (2006) The somatic marker hypothesis: a critical evaluation. Neurosci Biobehav Rev 30 (2): 239–71.
• Fenton-O'Creevy M, Nicholson N, Soane E ve ark. (2003) Trading on illusions: Unrealistic perceptions of control and trading performance. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 76(1): 53-68.
• Fischhoff B, Slovic P, Lichtenstein S (1979) Weighing the Risks: Risks: Benefits which Risks are Acceptable?. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 21(4): 17-38.
• Glaser M, Weber M (2007) Overconfidence and trading volume. The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32(1): 1-36.
• Grou B, Tabak BM (2008) Ambiguity aversion and illusion of control: experimental evidence in an emerging market. The Journal of Behavioral Finance, 9(1): 22-29.
• Hertwig R, Ortmann A (2001) Experimental practices in economics: A methodological challenge for psychologists?. Behav and Brain Sci, 24(03): 383-403.
• Kahneman D, Tversky A (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 263-291.
• Klein N (2007) The shock doctrine: The rise of disaster capitalism. Macmillan, New York.
• Langer EJ (1975) The illusion of control. J Pers Soc Psychol, 32(2): 311-320.
• MacCrimmon, KR, Larsson S (1979) Utility theory: axioms versus paradoxes. Expected utility hypotheses and the Allais paradox, Baskı 1, cilt 1, M Allais, O Hagen (Ed), Dordrecht: Reidel, 15-33.
• Morrison DG (1967) On the consistency of preferences in Allais' paradox. Behav Sci, 12(5): 373-383.
• Moskowitz H (1974) Effects of problem representation and feedback on rational behavior in Allais and Morlat-type problems. Decision Sciences, 5(2): 225-242.
• Naudé W (2009) The financial crisis of 2008 and the developing countries (No. 2009/01). WIDER Discussion Papers, World Institute for Development Economics (UNU-WIDER).
• Prasad M, Perrin AJ, Bezila K ve ark. (2009) There must be a reason: Osama, Saddam, and inferred justification. Sociological Inquiry, 79(2): 142-162.
• Roszkowski MJ, Davey G (2010) Risk perception and risk tolerance changes attributable to the 2008 economic crisis: A subtle but critical difference. Journal of Financial Service Professionals, 64(4): 42-53.
• Rockenbach B (2004) The behavioral relevance of mental accounting for the pricing of financial options. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 53(4): 513-527.
• Rötheli TF (2010) Causes of the financial crisis: Risk misperception, policy mistakes, and banks’ bounded rationality. The Journal of Socio- Economics, 39(2): 119-126.
• Samuelson W, Zeckhauser R (1988) Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1(1): 7-59.
• Shefrin H, Statman M (2000) Behavioral portfolio theory. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(02): 127-151.
• Slovic P, Tversky A (1974) Who accepts Savage's axiom?. Behav Sci, 19(6): 368-373.
• Thaler R (1980) Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1(1): 39-60.
• Trimpop RM (1994) The psychology of risk taking behavior. Elsevier, Londra: s.9.
• Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157): 1124-1131.
• Von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1944) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press.
• Zeckhauser RJ, Viscusi WK (1996) The risk management dilemma. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science: 144-155.