A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXIT STRATEGIES FROM TEMPORARY PROTECTION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND TÜRKİYE

Öz

The protection of approximately 4.3 million Ukrainians in the European Union (EU) and 2.3 million Syrians in Türkiye constitutes the two most significant applications of temporary protection today. Both regimes have reached a critical juncture where the focus is shifting from admission and reception to the formulation of exit strategies. While the EU has extended temporary protection until March 2027, Türkiye’s regime is entering its fifteenth year following the regime change in Syria in late 2024. This article compares the emerging exit strategies from temporary protection in these two jurisdictions. It argues that while both regimes rely heavily on executive discretion for the termination of the regime and look-and-see mechanisms to facilitate voluntary returns, they diverge significantly on long-term solutions: the EU is adopting a dual-track approach offering both integration and voluntary return as potential options, whereas Türkiye, so far, remains focused on voluntary return but has not developed a comprehensive exit strategy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Temporary protection
• exit strategies
• termination of temporary protection
• durable solutions
• look-and-see visits
• voluntary return

Etik Beyan

Etik izin gerektiren bir çalışma değildir.

Avrupa Birliği Hukuku ve Türk Hukukunda Geçici Korumadan Çıkış Stratejilerine İlişkin Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Öz

Ocak 2026 itibarıyla Avrupa Birliği’ndeki yaklaşık 4.3 milyon Ukrayna vatandaşının ve Türkiye’de ise 2.3 milyon Suriye vatandaşının geçici koruma statüsü ile korunması, günümüzde geçici korumanın en önemli iki uygulamasını teşkil etmektedir. Her iki örnekte de geçici korumanın sona erdirilmesine ilişkin politikaların geliştirilmesi önem arz etmektedir. AB geçici koruma rejimini Mart 2027’ye kadar uzatırken, Türkiye’nin geçici koruma rejimi, 2024 sonlarında Suriye’deki rejim değişikliğinin ardından on beşinci yılına girmektedir. Bu makale, AB ve Türkiye’de hem hukuki metinlerde hem de politika belgelerinde yer bulan ‘geçici korumadan çıkış stratejilerini’ karşılaştırmalı olarak incelemektedir. İnceleme konusu her iki rejim de statünün sona erdirilmesinde idarenin takdir yetkisini tanımakta ve gönüllü geri dönüş süreçlerinde ‘bak ve gör’ ziyaretlerini önemli bir araç olarak kullanmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, kalıcı çözümler noktasında iki sistem arasında belirgin bir ayrım gözlemlenmektedir: AB, entegrasyon ve gönüllü geri dönüşü benimseyen çift yönlü bir geçiş çerçevesi öngörürken; Türkiye, şu ana kadar gönüllü geri dönüşü teşvik etmiş ancak kapsamlı bir geçici korumadan çıkış stratejisi açıklamamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Geçici koruma
• geçici korumadan çıkış stratejileri
• geçici korumanın sona ermesi
• kalıcı çözümler
• bak ve gör ziyaretleri
• gönüllü geri dönüş

Etik Beyan

Etik izin gerektiren bir çalışma değildir.

Vorübergehender Schutz in der EU und der Türkei: Eine vergleichende Analyse von Ausstiegsstrategien

Öz

Der Schutz von etwa 4,3 Millionen Ukrainern in der Europäischen Union (EU) und 2.3 Millionen Syrern in der Türkei stellt heute die beiden bedeutendsten Anwendungen des vorübergehenden Schutzes dar. Beide Regime haben einen kritischen Punkt erreicht, an dem sich der Fokus von der Aufnahme und Unterbringung hin zur Formulierung von Ausstiegsstrategien verschiebt. Während die EU den vorübergehenden Schutz bis März 2027 verlängert hat, tritt das türkische Regime nach dem Regimewechsel in Syrien Ende 2024 in sein fünfzehntes Jahr ein. Dieser Artikel vergleicht die entstehenden Ausstiegsstrategien aus dem vorübergehenden Schutz in diesen beiden Jurisdiktionen. Er legt dar, dass beide Regime bei der Beendigung des Status stark auf exekutives Ermessen sowie auf „Look-and-See“-Mechanismen zur Erleichterung der freiwilligen Rückkehr setzen, sich jedoch bei langfristigen Lösungen erheblich unterscheiden: Die EU verfolgt einen zweigleisigen Ansatz, der sowohl Integration als auch freiwillige Rückkehr als potenzielle Optionen anbietet, während die Türkei sich bislang weiterhin auf die freiwillige Rückkehr konzentriert, jedoch noch keine umfassende Ausstiegsstrategie entwickelt hat.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Vorübergehender Schutz
• Ausstiegsstrategien
• Beendigung des vorübergehenden Schutzes
• Dauerhafte Lösungen

Etik Beyan

Etik izin gerektiren bir çalışma değildir.

Analyse comparative des stratégies de sortie de la protection temporaire dans l’Union européenne et en Turquie

Öz

La protection d'environ 4,3 millions d'Ukrainiens dans l'Union européenne (UE) et de 2,3 millions de Syriens en Turquie constitue aujourd'hui les deux applications les plus significatives de la protection temporaire. Ces deux régimes ont atteint un point critique où l'attention se déplace de l'admission et de l'accueil vers la formulation de stratégies de sortie. Alors que l'UE a prolongé la protection temporaire jusqu'en mars 2027, le régime turc entre dans sa quinzième année à la suite du changement de régime en Syrie fin 2024. Cet article compare les stratégies de sortie émergentes de la protection temporaire dans ces deux juridictions. Il soutient que, bien que les deux régimes s'appuient largement sur le pouvoir discrétionnaire de l'exécutif pour la cessation du régime et sur des mécanismes de « visites de reconnaissance » (look-and-see) pour faciliter les retours volontaires, ils divergent considérablement sur les solutions à long terme : l'UE adopte une approche à double voie offrant à la fois l'intégration et le retour volontaire comme options potentielles, tandis que la Turquie, jusqu'à présent, reste concentrée sur le retour volontaire mais n'a pas encore élaboré de stratégie de sortie globale.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Protection temporaire
• stratégies de sortie
• cessation de la protection temporaire
• solutions durables
• visites de reconnaissance (look-and-see)
• retour volontaire.

Etik Beyan

Etik izin gerektiren bir çalışma değildir.

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