Turkey’s Housing Rents and Inflation: 2005–2025 Period

Öz

This study aims to empirically test the statistical relationship between housing rent increases and general inflation in Turkey by analyzing the long-term trend of housing rents. The research employs monthly data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the period January 2005–August 2025, including the Actual Rentals for Housing Index (2003=100) and the General Consumer Price Index (2003=100). The data were organized as time series, and descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, and Granger causality tests were applied. The findings reveal that the Actual Rentals for Housing Index increased approximately 44-fold, while the General CPI rose about 28-fold during the study period. Although the two indices exhibit a moderate positive correlation at the level of price indices, no significant relationship was found between their monthly and annual percentage changes; the Granger causality test also indicated no directional causality between rent increases and general inflation. The results suggest that, while housing rents rise in line with the general price level in the long term, their short-term movements are determined by market-specific dynamics such as housing supply constraints, regional demand pressures, and lease renewal cycles. These findings emphasize that traditional inflation-control tools based solely on monetary policy are insufficient to curb rent inflation and highlight the necessity of structural measures aimed at expanding housing supply.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Inflation
• Housing Rent Index
• Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Time Series Analysis
• Granger Causality
• Turkish Economy.

Türkiye’de Konut Kiraları ve Enflasyon: 2005–2025 Dönemi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de konut kiralarının uzun dönemli eğilimini analiz ederek, kira artışları ile genel enflasyon arasındaki istatistiksel ilişkiyi ampirik olarak test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun 2005 Ocak–2025 Ağustos dönemine ait aylık Gerçek Kira Endeksi (2003=100) ile Genel Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (2003=100) verileri kullanılmıştır. Zaman serisi biçiminde düzenlenen veriler üzerinde tanımlayıcı istatistikler, Pearson korelasyon analizi ve Granger nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, Gerçek Kira Endeksinin yaklaşık 44 kat, Genel TÜFE’nin ise 28 kat arttığını ortaya koymuştur. İki endeks düzey bazında orta kuvvette pozitif korelasyon göstermesine karşın, aylık ve yıllık değişim oranları arasında anlamlı bir ilişki saptanmamış; Granger nedensellik testi de kira artışları ile genel enflasyon arasında yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmadığını göstermiştir. Sonuçlar, kira fiyatlarının uzun vadede genel fiyat düzeyi ile birlikte yükselmesine rağmen, kısa vadede konut arzı, bölgesel talep ve sözleşme yenileme dönemleri gibi piyasa dinamikleri tarafından belirlendiğini göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, yalnızca para politikasına dayalı geleneksel enflasyonla mücadele araçlarının kira enflasyonunu kontrol altına almakta yetersiz kaldığını ve konut arzını artırmaya yönelik yapısal önlemlerin gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon
• Konut Kira Endeksi
• Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE)
• Zaman Serisi Analizi
• Granger Nedensellik
• Türkiye Ekonomisi.

Kaynakça

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