Türkiye Sanayi Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketiminin 2017-2023 dönemi için Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Tahmini

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 206 - 228, 30.09.2019

İhsan Pençe , Adnan Kalkan , Melike Şişeci Çeşmeli

https://doi.org/10.31200/makuubd.538878

Cited By: 7

Öz

Ülkelerin
gelişmesinde sanayinin büyük bir rolü olup geçmişten günümüze kadar sanayi
faaliyetleri hız kesmeden ilerlemiştir. Bu gelişime ayak uyduran ülkeler ucuz
hammaddeleri işleyip yüksek ücretlere satarak hazinelerini genişletmişlerdir.
Endüstri 4.0 devriminin şafağında bu gelişimden geri kalınmaması gerekmekte
olup gerek sanayi gerekse teknoloji birlikte geliştirilmelidir. Sanayileşmedeki
en büyük ihtiyaçlardan biri elektrik enerjisi olup Türkiye’de elektrik enerjisi
tüketiminin sanayi için oranları yıllara göre %40 ile %60 arasında
değişmektedir. Bu oranlar düşünüldüğünde elektrik tüketiminin büyük bir payı
sanayiye ait olup ileriye yönelik planlamaların yapılmasına kesinlikle ihtiyaç
duyulmaktadır. Türkiye’nin Endüstri 4.0 ile birlikte gelecek planlarında
elektrik enerjisi sıkıntısına düşmemesi için ileriye yönelik tahminleme ve buna
uygun yeni tesislerin kurulumlarının planlanması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada,
Türkiye’de 1970-2016 yıllarına ait sanayi için elektrik tüketimleri yapay sinir
ağları ile modellenmiş olup elde edilen model daha sonra 2017-2023 yıllarındaki
tüketimi tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. Yapay sinir ağı birisi-dışarıda
çapraz doğrulama yöntemi ile test edilmiş olup elde edilen sonuçlara göre;
ortalama karesel hataların karekökü değeri 8.99, ortalama mutlak yüzde hata
%31.6 ve belirleme katsayısı ise 0.94 olarak elde edilmiş olup bu sonuçlar
modelin iyi kurulduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca 2023 yılına kadar olan
tahmin değerleri de Türkiye Elektrik İletim A.Ş. Genel Müdürlüğü’nün kendi
tahminleri ile paralellik göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Elektrik Tüketimi, Sanayi, Yapay Sinir Ağları, Tahminleme

Estimation of Turkey Industrial Electricity Consumption with Artificial Neural Networks for the 2017-2023 Period

Öz

In
the development of the countries, the industry played a big role and the
industrial activities from the past to the present day progressed without
slowing down. These developments have expanded their treasury by selling cheap
raw materials to high wages after they have grown up. At the dawn of the
Industry 4.0 revolution, this development should not be left behind, and both
industry and technology should be developed together. For industrialization,
one of the biggest needs is electricity energy and the ratio of consumption of
electricity energy in proportion to industry in Turkey ranges from 40% to 60%
according to years. Considering these rates, a large share of electricity
consumption belongs to the industry and there is absolutely a need for future planning.
Turkey's future plans with Industry 4.0, forecasting electricity for onward
fall into distress, and it is necessary to install the proper planning of new
facilities. In this study, the electricity consumption of the 1970-2016 years
for the industry in Turkey are modeled with artificial neural network, then
obtained successful model is used to estimate consumption in the years
2017-2023. The artificial neural network has been tested by leave-one-out cross
validation method and according to the results; the root mean square error is
8.99, the mean absolute percentage error is 31.6%, and the coefficient of
determination is 0.94, which indicates that the model is well established. In
addition, forecast values up to 2023 are in line with General Directorate of
Türkiye Elektrik İletim A.Ş.'s own estimates. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Electricity Consumption, Industry, Artificial Neural Networks, Estimation

Kaynakça

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