AVRUPA PARA BİRLİĞİ: ASİMETRİK ŞOK PROBLEMİ ÜZERİNE BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Öz

Avrupa Para Birliği (APB) kendine has bir şekilde kurulmuştur: para politikaları merkezileştirilirken mali politikalar İstikrar ve Büyüme Paktı sınırları içerisinde üye devletlerin yönetiminde bırakılmıştır. Komisyon, APB’nin zaman içinde bir optimum para sahası haline geleceğini, bu yüzden de mali politikaların merkezileştirilmesinin gerekmeyeceğini öne sürmüştür. Mali federalizm literatürü ise bir birlikte, üyelerin diğerlerini olumsuz yönden etkilemeden asimetrik şokları asimile edemeyeceğini, bu yüzden istikrar sağlama politikalarının merkezileştirilmesini önermektedir. Bu yüzden para politikasının merkezileştirilmesi mali politikaların da merkezileştirilmesiyle pekiştirilmelidir. Bu çalışma APB’nin zaman içinde daha simetrik bir yapıya kavuşup kavuşmadığını araştırmaktadır. Önerilen bir merkezi sigorta mekanizmasıyla, zaman içinde değişen modelin istikrar sağlama yetisi ve APB’nin asimetrik şoklarla baş edebilme becerisi bağdaştırılmış ve APB’nin zaman içinde daha simetrik bir yapı haline geldiği görülmüştür

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avrupa Para Birliği
• Optimum Para Sahası
• Asimetrik Şoklar
• Mali Federalizm

EMU: AN EVALUATION OF THE ASYMMETRIC SHOCK PROBLEM

Öz

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has a unique set up: while the monetary policy is centralised at the Union-level, the fiscal policies are left to the member states within the limitations of the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission argues that within time EMU would constitute an optimum currency area, and further centralisation of fiscal policies, thus, is not needed. Fiscal federalism literature, on the other hand argues that stabilisation functions should be centralised, since no individual would be able to deal with an asymmetric shock without harming another member. Therefore the fiscal policy centralisation should accompany the monetary centralisation. This study tries to assess whether the EMU has become more symmetric over time. By proposing a centralised insurance against asymmetric shock, and linking the trend of the stabilisation provided by the insurance scheme to the ability of EMU to absorb asymmetric shocks, the results of the study suggests that EMU has become more symmetric over time

Anahtar Kelimeler

• EMU
• OCA
• Asymmetric Shock
• Fiscal Federalism
• Jel Codes: C23
• E63
• H77

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