International Hierarchy and Regional Security in the Post-Soviet Region: Crises in Ukraine and Georgia

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 193 - 217, 27.10.2017

Aslıhan Anlar

https://doi.org/10.14782/sbd.2017.72

Öz

Soğuk Savaşın bitiminden yirmi beş yıl geçmesine rağmen, eski Sovyet ülkeleri, işgal ve askeri çatışmalar

da dahil olmak üzere birçok iç ve dış problemle uğraşmaktadır. Rusya Federasyonu’nun 1996 öncesi

dönemde eski Sovyet coğrafyasında ortaya çıkan askeri çatışmalar ve iç savaşlar karşısında izlediği

müdahaleci politika güvenliğe katkıda bulunurken; 2008 ve 2013’de meydana gelen krizlere müdahalesi

sorunların daha da derinleşmesine sebep olmuştur. Bu çalışma Rusya Federasyonu’nun eski Sovyetler

Birliği ülkelerindeki çatışmalar karşısında birbirinden farklı politikalar izlemesinin nedenlerini konu

almaktadır. Bu soru, Rusya’nın Gürcistan ve Ukrayna ile olan hiyerarşik ilişkilerinin oluşum ve değişim

süreci incelenerek cevaplandırılmaktadır. Bu üç devlet arasında hiyerarşik ilişkilerin oluşum sürecinin

incelenmesi için askeri alanda (askeri güçlerin konuşlandırılması, egemen güç tarafından kurulan bir

ittifaka üyelik, başka bir ittifaka üyelik hedefinin olması, askeri teçhizat temini, askeri yardım alınması)

ve ekonomik ilişkilerde (dış ticarette egemen devlete bağımlılık, egemen devlet tarafından kurulan

ekonomik birliğe üye olma, ekonomik yardım alınması ve egemen devletin para birimi karşısında

izlenen para politikaları) olmak üzere yirmi iki yıllık süreçte (1992-2014) on gösterge toplamda iki

yüz yirmi göstergeye bakılmıştır. Bu göstergelere göre hiyerarşik ilişkiler üç gruba ayrılmıştır: yüksek

dereceli hiyerarşi, düşük dereceli hiyerarşi ve anarşik hiyerarşi. Ukrayna ve Gürcistan’da ilk iki dönemde

başa gelen liderler ve izledikleri politikalar ve Rusya Federasyonu’nun bu politikalara tepkisiyle farklı

hiyerarşik ilişkiler arasındaki bağlantı ortaya konmuştur. Bu çalışmada, Rusya’nın bu iki ülke ile olan

hiyerarşik ilişkilerinin değişmesi, öncellikle Rusya’nın bu iki devlet karşında, karşılıklı kabul görmüş

egemen pozisyonunun ve ikinci olarak da hakim devlet ile ona bağımlı ülkeler arasındaki olması gereken

sosyal sözleşmenin sorgulanması bu ülkelerdeki iç savaşlarda Rusya’nın farklı politikalar izlemesinin

temel nedeni olduğu iddia edilmektedir. Rusya’nın bu ülkelere yaptığı müdahalelerden sonra değişik bir

düzenleyici ilke- anarşik hiyerarşi ile farklı bir bölgesel düzen oluşmuştur. Bu düzen içerisinde Rusya bu

ülkelerin güvenliğini ikili yönde etkilemektedir: Kendine bağlı yeni ortaklarının güvenliklerini garanti

altına alırken, aynı zamanda eski bağımlı ülkelerin güvenliklerini tehdit etmektedir. Böylece bu çalışma

ile egemen bir ülkenin etki alanını barındıran bölgelerdeki güvenlik dinamikleri tartışılmış; hakim ve

egemen devletin bölgesel güvenliğini arttıran ya da zarar veren politikalar izleyip izleyemeyeceğini

belirlemede, egemen devletin kendine bağlı devletler karşısındaki konumu (egemen devlet ile

kendine bağlı devletler arasındaki hiyerarşik ilişkilerin derecesi ve yoğunluğu), siyasal seçkinlerindeki

değişiklikler de dahil olmak üzere bağımlı ülkelerdeki iç gelişmeler ve egemen devlete karşı diğer

büyük güçlerin konumları olmak üzere birbiriyle ilişkili üç faktörün rol oynadığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Russian Federation, Georgia, Ukraine, International Hierarchy, Anarchical Hierarchy, Regional Security

Kaynakça

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