Terörizmin Sosyo-Ekonomik Etkileri Üzerine Genel Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Terörizm günümüzde tüm dünyada küresel çapta varlığını sürdürdüğü gibi Türkiye için de önemli bir tehdit olarak gündemde yerini almaktadır. Terörün en önemli özelliği olağan üstü bir gelişim sergilemesi ve bireyler, toplumlar ve ekonomiler üzerinde ciddi etkiler bırakabilmesidir. Bu çalışma terörizmin sosyo-ekonomik etkilerinin ekonomik büyüme, turizm, finansal sektör, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile çevresel sürdürülebilirlik çerçevesinde dünya ülkeleri ve Türkiye ekonomisi için incelemektedir. Bu çalışmanın en önemli özelliği terörizmin sosyo-ekonomik etkilerinin değerlendirilmesinde teorik bir çerçeve (model) oluşturması ve bu şekilde konuyu araştırmasıdır. İkinci en önemli özelliği, terörizm ile ekonomik büyüme, turizm, finansal sektör, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik ilişkisi üzerinde odaklanan ampirik çalışmaları inceleyerek önemli karşılaştırmalar yapma imkânı tanımasıdır. Son olarak konu ile ilgili politika önerileri yani alınması gereken önlemler sıralanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Terörizm
• Sosyo-Ekonomik Yapı
• Teorik Model
• Türkiye
• Dünya Ekonomileri

A General Essasment of Socioeconomic Effects of Terrorism

Öz

Terrorism, which continues to exist globally, is now a significant threat, particularly for Turkey. Its most significant characteristic is its extraordinary evolution and its ability to have serious impacts on individuals, societies, and economies. This study examines the socio-economic impacts of terrorism on the global economy and the Turkish economy within the framework of economic growth, tourism, the financial sector, foreign direct investment, and environmental sustainability. The most important feature of this study is that it establishes a theoretical framework (model) for assessing the socio-economic impacts of terrorism and explores the topic accordingly. Its second most important feature is that it allows for significant comparisons by examining empirical studies focusing on the relationship between terrorism and economic growth, tourism, the financial sector, foreign direct investment, and environmental sustainability. Finally, relevant policy recommendations, that is, necessary measures, are outlined.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Terrorism
• Socio-Economic Sturture
• Theoretical Model
• Turkey
• World Economies

Kaynakça

1. Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93(1), 113–132.
2. Acer, Y. (2004). Terörizm kavramı açısından Ermeni terörü ve genel nitelikleri. Turkish Weekly. Retrieved October 28, 2004, from http://www.hirkishweekly.net/
3. Addison, T., Chowdhury, A. R., & Murshed, S. M. (2002). By how much does conflict reduce development? Evidence from cross-country data (No. 2002/48). WIDER Discussion Paper. United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research.
4. Ağır, H., & Kar, M. (2010). Terörizmin makroekonomik sonuçları üzerine bir değerlendirme. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 47(539), 13–32.
5. Alp, İ. A. (2013). Terörün ekonomik etkileri. Uluslararası Güvenlik ve Terörizm Dergisi, 4(1), 1–19.
6. Altay, H., Ekinci, A., & Peçe, M. A. (2016). Ortadoğu’da terörün ekonomik etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır ve Suudi Arabistan üzerine bir inceleme. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (47), 36–46.
7. Altuğ, Y. (1995). Terörün anatomisi. İstanbul: Altın Kitaplar.
8. Altunok, E., & Vural, A. F. (2011). Bilişim suçları. Denetişim, (8), 74–84.

9. Arora, V., & Bayoumi, T. (1993). The benefits of reducing military expenditure. In World Economic Outlook (pp. 109–132). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
10. Aşcı, B. (2017). Olasılık yönetimi: Senaryo analizi. 21. Yüzyılda Eğitim ve Toplum Dergisi, 6(17), 375–394.
11. Atasever, S., vd. (2019). [Makale]. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/702989 Retrieved from
12. Bakkal, M. (2023). Milli Savunma Bakanlığı’nın GSYİH içindeki payı.
13. Bayoumi, T., Hewitt, D., & Schiff, J. (1993). The economic consequences of lower military spending: Some simulation results (IMF Working Paper No. 93/17). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
14. Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271–280.
15. Berezka, K., & Kovalchuk, O. (2019). Modeling factors associated with the impact of international migration on security and economy. Ekonometria, 23(4), 30–42.
16. Bildirici, M. E. (2021). Terrorism, environmental pollution, foreign direct investment (FDI), energy consumption, and economic growth: Evidences from China, India, Israel, and Türkiye. Energy and Environment, 32, 75–95.
17. Bildirici, M. E., Genç, S. Y., & Castanho, R. A. (2022). Environmental pollution, terrorism, and mortality rate in China, India, Russia, and Türkiye. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912649 Sustainability, 14, 12649.
18. Caşın, M. H. (2008). Uluslararası terörizm. Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
19. Cavelty, M. D. (2008). Cyber-terror: A looming threat or a phantom menace? The framing of the US cyber-threat debate. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 4(1), 19–36.
20. Collins, S., & McCombie, S. (2012). Stuxnet: The emergence of a new cyber weapon and its implications. Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, 7(1), 80–91.
21. Çardak, B. (2022). [Makale]. Retrieved https://www.ijoess.com/Makaleler/1789181689.pdf from
22. Çıtak, E. (2021). [Makale]. Retrieved https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2811668 from
23. Dilmaç, S. (2011). Terörizmde tanım sorunu ve yaklaşımlar (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Polis Akademisi Güvenlik Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Ankara.
24. Drakos, K., & Kutan, A. M. (2003). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5), 621–641.
25. Efayena, O. O., & Olele, E. H. (2024). Environmental sustainability, terrorism, and military expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from panel quantile ARDL regression and panel causality. Sustainable Futures, 7, 100214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100214
26. Efobi, U. R., Beecroft, I., & Osabuohien, E. (2015). Terrorism and foreign direct investment in developing countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(5), 681–704. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-01-2014-0012
27. Enders, W., & Parise, G. F. (1992). Terrorism and tourism: An econometric analysis. Kyklos, 45(4), 531–554.
28. Enders, W., Sandler, T., & Parise, G. F. (1992). An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism. Kyklos, 45(4), 531–554.
29. Erarslan, M.U. (2025). An evaluation of the impact of terrorism on socioeconomic indicators in TRB and TRC regions. TÜRKAD, 2 (3), 69-92.
30. Estrada, M. A. R., Park, D., & Khan, A. (2018). The impact of terrorism on economic performance: The case of Turkey. Economic Analysis and Policy, 60, 78–88.
31. Feridun, M., & Şahbaz, M. (2010). Fighting terrorism: Are military measures effective? Empirical evidence from Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 21(2), 193–205.
32. Giray, F. (2004). Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 181–199.
33. Gündüz, M. (1996). Basın ve terör. İzmir: Saray Kitabevi.
34. https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/terrorism-index
35. İskenderoğlu, L. (2019). [Makale]. Retrieved https://jasstudies.com/?mod=makale_tr_ozet&makale_id=27009
36. https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/terrorism-index
37. İzzetgil, E. (2021). [Makale].
38. Karadağ, H., vd. (2019). Ortadoğu’daki terörün ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Panel veri analizi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 1313–1329.
39. Kechagia, P., & Metaxas, T. (2019). An empirical investigation of FDI inflows in developing economies: Terrorism as a determinant factor. Journal of Economic Asymmetries, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00125 20, e00125.
40. Knight, M., Loayza, N., & Villanueva, D. (1996). The peace dividend: Military spending cuts and economic growth. IMF Staff Papers, 43(1), 1–37.
41. Kongar, E. (2005, January 6–7). GOP neyi amaçlıyor, neyi gerçekleştirebilir. Cumhuriyet.
42. Küresel Riskler Raporu. (2019). Global Risks Report 2019. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org Retrieved March 10, 2021, from
43. Küresel Terörizm Endeksi. (2018). Global Terrorism Index 2019. Sydney: Institute for Economics & Peace. Retrieved March 21, 2021, from http://visionofhumanity.org
44. Küresel Terörizm Veritabanı. (2019). Global Terrorism Database 1970–2018. Knoema. Retrieved March 18, 2021, from https://knoema.com
45. Meng, C., & Ghafoori, N. (2024). The economic impact of terrorism in South Asia. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 96, 102084. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.102084
46. Michael, S. (2007). Terrorism: A socio-economic and political phenomenon with special reference to Pakistan. Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(1), 35–46.
47. Ndikumana, L. (2001). Fiscal policy, conflict, and reconstruction in Burundi and Rwanda (No. 2001/62). WIDER Discussion Paper. United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research.
48. Nitsch, V., & Schumacher, D. (2004). Terrorism and international trade: An empirical investigation. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 423–433.
49. Öcal, N., & Yıldırım, J. (2010). Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach. Journal of Peace Research, 47(4), 477–489.
50. Özçelik, Ö., & Önder, H. (2016). Savunma harcamalarına terör riskinin etkisi: Ampirik bir uygulama. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (47), 36–46.
51. Öztürk, S., & Çelik, K. (2009). Terörizmin Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine etkileri. Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 1(2), 85-106.
52. Paul, J. A., & Bagchi, A. (2023). Immigration, terrorism, and the economy. of Policy Modeling, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.03.002 45(3), 538–551.
53. Pollitt, M. M. (1998). Cyberterrorism: Fact or fancy? Computer Fraud & Security, 1998(2), 8–10.
54. Rigoulet-Roze, D. (2016). Le coût économique du terrorisme: L’équation impossible ? Géoéconomie, (80), 58–83.
55. Sandilaç, N. (2022). [Makale]. from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/bilisimhukukudergisi/issue/70937/1119881 Retrieve
56. Shah, S. H., Raza, S. A., & Qureshi, M. A. (2019). Terrorism, foreign direct investment, and trade: Evidence from Pakistan. Terrorism and Political Violence, 31(4), https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2016.1194269 749–766.
57. Shieh, J. Y., Lai, C. C., & Chang, W. Y. (2002). Endogenous growth and defense expenditures: A new explanation of the Benoit hypothesis. Defence and Peace Economics, 13(3), 179–186.
58. START. (2019). Background report: Terrorism in 2018. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. Retrieved March 18, 2021, from https://www.start.umd.edu
59. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2001). SIPRI Yearbook 2001: Armaments, disarmament, and international security. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
60. Temizel, M. (2011). Terörizmde yeni milad: 11 Eylül 2001. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, (14), 45–58.
61. Türkiye Barolar Birliği. (2006). Türkiye ve terörizm. Ankara: Türkiye Barolar Birliği Yayınları.
62. Ullah, S., & Inaba, K. (2014). Liberalization and FDI performance: Evidence from ASEAN and SAFTA member countries. Journal of Economic Structures, 3(6). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-014-0006-z
63. Usta, O. (2003). Güneydoğu’da terör görünümü ve devlet siyaseti. Ankara: Siirt Valiliği Yayınları.
64. van Ballegooij, W., & Bakowski, P. (2018). The cost of terrorism: The EU perspective. Brussels: European Parliament. Retrieved March 18, 2021, from http://www.europarl.europa.eu
65. Waheed, A. and Ahmad, M.M. (2012). Socioeconomic impacts of terrorism on affected families in Lahore, Pakistan. Journal of Aggression, Maltreatment & Trauma, https://doi.org/10.1080/10926771.2012.639052 21(2), 202-222.
66. Walkenhorst, P., & Dihel, N. (2002). The trade impact of the 9/11 terrorist attacks: A quantitative assessment. Paper presented at the DIW Workshop “Economic Consequences of Global Terrorism”, Berlin.
67. Yaya, B. (2009). Terrorism and tourism: The case of Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6), 477–497. Zucchi, K. (2019). Which countries spend the most on fighting terrorism? Investopedia. Retrieved https://www.investopedia.com December 18, 2019, from