Post-2001 Economic Reforms and Türkiye's Growth Trajectory: Evidence from a Synthetic Control Analysis

This study evaluates the long-term growth trajectory associated with the comprehensive economic reforms implemented in Türkiye following the 2001 financial crisis. Using the synthetic control method (SCM) and a donor pool of 16 emerging and middle-income economies, a counterfactual GDP-per-capita trajectory is constructed for 1990-2025. The pre-treatment RMSPE is 2.24%, indicating close trajectory fit. The primary inference window follows the standard SCM convention of beginning at the treatment year: the 2002-2019 average post-treatment gap is +2.35%, diluted by an initial adjustment phase in 2002-2007 (average gap -3.81%). A theoretically motivated subperiod analysis of 2008-2019 yields an average gap of +5.43%, consistent with the delayed-transmission hypothesis for banking-sector reform (Prati, Onorato, & Papageorgiou, 2013). In-space placebo inference yields rank-based p-values of 0.647 (primary window) and 0.529 (full window), confirming the finding is economically meaningful but not conventionally statistically significant. Leave-one-out analysis identifies Mexico (43.4% baseline weight) as a critical donor: its removal reduces the 2002-2019 gap to -2.71% and the 2008-2019 gap to +0.37%. This sensitivity is documented transparently as a central limitation. The post-2020 period is reported only descriptively due to pandemic dynamics, heterodox policy and IMF projection reliance. Findings are interpreted as consistent with a reform-associated growth differential conditioned on macrofinancial credibility and banking-sector consolidation, subject to the donor sensitivity caveat.