Güçlükle ayakta? Düzensiz göç temalı AB-Türkiye Ortak Bildirisi’nin maliyetleri ve faydaları

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 51 Sayı: 2, 173 - 190, 27.12.2024

Basak Kale , Ebru Turhan

Öz

Mart 2016’da ilan edilen ve Mülteci Mutabakatı olarak da telaffuz edilen AB-Türkiye Ortak Bildirisi, hem Avrupa Birliği (AB) hem de Türkiye için önemli motivasyonlar içermekteydi. AB açısından bakıldığında, AB-Türkiye Bildirisi, Türkiye ve yakın çevresinden düzensiz göçü sınırlamayı, hatta durdurmayı amaçlamaktaydı. Türkiye için ise Mutabakat, finansal destek ve stratejik diplomatik ilişkiler sağlayarak Türkiye’yi yeniden AB’nin siyasi gündemine taşıyacaktı. Bir yandan, Ankara’nın sıklıkla anlaşmadan çekilme tehdidinde bulunması, öte yandansa, mutabakattan sorumlu AB kurumlarının göç yönetiminde “insancıl” bir duruş sergilemediği ve AB’nin Türkiye hükümetine bağımlılığını artırdığı gerekçesiyle eleştirilmesi nedeniyle, AB-Türkiye Mutabakatının neden hâlâ devam ettiği sorusu akıllara gelebilmektedir. Bu makale, her iki tarafın da rasyonalist hesaplamalarını dikkate alarak, mutabakatın uygulanma sürecinde iki tarafa yansıyan maliyetlerini ve katkılarını analitik bir değerlendirmeye (2016-2024) tabi tutmaktadır. Bulgular, Mutabakatın AB’ye üye devletlerin hükümetleri ve Türkiye hükümeti açısından faydalarının maliyetlerini aştığını göstermektedir. Birlik içinde uyumlu hareketlerde bulunamayan ve göç yönetişiminin iç boyutunu güçlendiremeyen AB, mülteci mutabakatı sayesinde, Türkiye’yi hem menşei ülkeler ile AB’ye üye ülkeler arasında bir tampon bölge olarak, hem de sığınmacı “Öteki”nin ikamet edebileceği bir jeopolitik alan olarak kullanabilmiştir. Mutabakat, AB’nin diğer komşu ülkelerle benzer düzenlemeler yapması için de bir ana model oluşturmuştur. Türkiye açısından bakıldığında ise, mutabakat, Türkiye hükümetine AB ile ilişkilerinde benzersiz bir manevra alanı sunmuştur ve AB’nin Türkiye’ye yönelik geleneksel normatif koşulluluğunu kullanmasını engellemiştir. Bu bağlamda, hükümetlerarası düzeyde mutabakatın faydalarının maliyetlerini aştığı gözlemlenmektedir. Ancak, bu olumlu maliyet-fayda oranının kamuya ve toplumlara ne kadar yansıdığı belirsizliğini korumakta ve bu noktada daha fazla akademik araştırmaya ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

AB-Türkiye ilişkileri, AB-Türkiye bildirisi, düzensiz göç, mülteci mutabakatı, sığınmacı politikası, işlemsellik.

Barely Alive? The Costs and Benefits of the EU-Turkey Statement on Irregular Migration

Öz

The EU-Turkey Statement of March 2016 - also known as the EU-Turkey deal or the refugee deal - had strong underlying motivations both for the European Union (EU) and Turkey. For the EU, the EU-Turkey Statement aimed to limit if not, end irregular migration from Turkey and its immediate neighbourhood. For Turkey, the Statement provided financial support and strategic diplomatic engagement, putting Turkey back on the EU’s political map. With Ankara frequently threatening to withdraw from the deal and with the EU institutions responsible for the deal having been criticized for not taking a “humane” stand toward migration management and for increasing the EU’s dependence on the Turkish government, it remains somewhat unclear why the EU-Turkey Statement still perseveres. Taking into consideration both parties’ rationalist calculations, this paper offers an analytical overview of the costs and benefits of the implementation of the deal from 2016 to 2024. The findings show that the advantages of the Statement for the EU (governments) and the Turkish government outweigh its costs. Unable to engage in concerted actions and to strengthen the internal dimension of its migration governance, the Statement helped the EU utilize Turkey both as a buffer zone between countries of origin and its member states and as a geopolitical space where the refugee Other can reside. The Statement also created a blueprint for similar arrangements of the EU with other neighbouring countries. As far as Turkey is concerned, the Statement specifically equipped the Turkish government with unparalleled leverage in its relations with the EU which remains incapable of instrumentalizing its normative conditionality vis-à-vis Turkey. Thus, at the intergovernmental level, the benefits of the Statement outweigh its costs. How much this satisfactory cost-benefit ratio translates into the public domain remains unclear and is subject to further scholarly investigation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

EU-Turkey relations, EU-Turkey Statement, Turkey’s migration policy, EU’s migration policy

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