MENA Bölgesinde Düşük Karbonlu Ekonomi için Genişletilmiş STIRPAT Modelinin Test Edilmesi

Öz

Nüfus artışı, tüketimdeki çeşitlenme ve artış, sanayi üretiminin artması, kentleşmenin yoğunlaşması ve enerji ihtiyacının artması gibi sebeplerle yaratılan atık ve karbon miktarı küresel ölçekte gün geçtikçe artmaktadır. Öyle ki, Dünya Ekonomik Forumu’nun küresel riskler haritasına göre çevre sorunları ve iklim değişikliği 2011 yılından itibaren en önemli riskler arasında yer almaktadır. Ayrıca sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın temel bileşenlerinden biri olan ekonomik büyümenin (kapalı döngü/döngüsel sistemler yerine) doğrusal süreçlerle sınırlı kalması, bir diğer bileşen olan çevresel kaliteyi tehdit etmektedir. Dolayısıyla hem küresel hem de ulusal ölçekte düşük karbonlu ekonomi modeliyle büyümenin önemi ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışma Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) bölgesinde düşük karbonlu ekonomi ve çevresel bozulmaya ilişkin temel argümanların araştırılması için daha kapsamlı bir çerçeve sağlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Sürdürülebilirlik ilkesinden hareketle Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) bölgesi için 1990-2020 dönemi verileri esas alınarak, STIRPAT modelinin temel unsurları olan refah, nüfus ve teknolojiye; yenilenebilir enerji ve ticari dışa açıklık değişkenleri eklenmekte ve genişletilmiş STIRPAT modeli ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımıyla test edilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, uzun dönemde nüfus, refah ve teknoloji değişkenleri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçlar verirken; ticari dışa açıklık değişkeninin etkisi kısa dönemde gözlenmektedir. Ayrıca kısa dönem şoklarını takiben uzun dönem dengesinde oluşacak sapmadan bir dönem sonrası, söz konusu şokun etkisinin %38’inin giderilebildiği; yani uyarlanma sürecinin yavaş olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma
• Ticari Açıklık
• Çevresel Bozulma
• Yenilenebilir Enerji
• MENA Bölgesi

Testing the Extended STIRPAT Model for Low-Carbon Economy in MENA Region

Öz

On global scale, the amount of waste and carbon is increasing day by day because of the reasons such as increasing population, urbanization, consumption, industrial production and energy demand etc. Moreover, according to the World Economic Forum's global risks map, environmental problems and climate change have been among the most important risks since 2011. The fact that economic growth, one of the basic components of sustainable development, is limited to linear processes (rather than closed-loop/circular systems) threatens another component, environmental quality. Therefore, the importance of growth with a low-carbon economy model emerges both on a global and national scale. In this context, the study aims to provide a more comprehensive framework for investigating the main arguments for a low-carbon economy and environmental degradation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Based on the principle of sustainability, the variables of trade openness and renewable energy are added to the main elements of the STIRPAT model (population, affluence and technology). The extended STIRPAT model is tested with the ARDL bounds test approach using data from MENA region for the period 1990-2020. According to the results obtained, while population, affluence and technology variables give statistically significant results in the long term, the effect of the trade openness variable is observed in the short term. 38% of the effect of the shock is eliminated after a period from deviation from long-term equilibrium following short-term shocks. In other words it is concluded that the adaptation process is slowly.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sustainable Development
• Environmental Degradation
• trade openness
• Renewable Energy
• MENA Region

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