GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE KREDİYE ERİŞİM DİNAMİKLERİ: ÖZEL SEKTÖRE VERİLEN KREDİLERİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 13 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 193 - 204, 31.12.2025

Münevvere Yıldız , Kenan İlarslan

https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1808400

Öz

Özel sektör, iş ve istihdam olanakları sağlayarak yoksulluğun azaltılmasına, yenilikçi iş fikirlerinin doğması ve uygulanmasıyla girişimcilik kültürünün gelişmesine, yeni teknolojilerin geliştirilmesi ile bilgi birikiminin artmasına sağladıkları katkılar ile ülke ekonomisinin kalkınma süreçlerinde en önemli unsurlardan birisidir. Özel sektörün bu katkıları sağlama noktasında karşılaştığı en büyük sorunlardan birisi finansman ihtiyacıdır. Sermaye yetersizliği ile betimlenen gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, özel sektörün finansman ihtiyacı daha da önem kazanmaktadır. Özel sektöre verilen krediler yoluyla kaynak transferi üretimi, tüketimi ve sermaye oluşumu sağlanır. Ancak bu kaynak transferi üzerinde nelerin etkili olduğunu belirlemek bu sürecin etkinliği ve verimliliği açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada 2002-2021 döneminde 54 gelişen ve yükselen ülke verilerinden elde edilen örneklem bağlamında özel sektöre verilen yurtiçi krediler üzerinde enflasyon, finansal gelişim ve hukukun üstünlüğünün rollerine ilişkin ampirik kanıtlar elde edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Sistem GMM dinamik panel veri tahmincisi ile elde edilen sonuçlara göre özel sektöre verilen krediler üzerinde finansal gelişmişlik, hukukun üstünlüğü değişkenleri anlamlı ve pozitif yönlü etkiye sahipken, enflasyon değişkeni anlamlı ve negatif yönlü bir etki ortaya koymuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

özel sektöre verilen krediler , finansal gelişim , enflasyon , hukukun üstünlüğü , sistem GMM

THE DYNAMICS OF CREDIT ACCESS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR

Öz

The private sector is a crucial element in a country's economic development process, contributing to poverty reduction by creating jobs and providing employment opportunities. It also fosters the development of an entrepreneurial culture through the emergence and implementation of innovative business ideas, as well as the development of new technologies and an increase in knowledge. One of the biggest challenges the private sector faces in providing these contributions is the need for financing. In developing countries characterized by capital shortages, the private sector’s financing needs become even more crucial. Resource transfers through loans to the private sector facilitate production, consumption, and capital formation. However, determining the factors influencing this resource transfer is crucial for the effectiveness and efficiency of this process. This study seeks to offer empirical proof on the roles of inflation, financial development, and the rule of law on domestic credit to the private sector, based on a dataset of 54 developing and emerging countries from 2002 to 2021. The system GMM dynamic panel data estimator results show that financial development and a strong rule of law have a substantial and positive impact on credit to the private sector, whereas inflation has a considerable and negative impact.

Anahtar Kelimeler

credit to the private sector , financial development , inflation , rule of law , system GMM

Kaynakça

• Adeleke, A. M. ve Awodumi, O. B. (2018). A bound testing analysis of bank credit supply determinants in Nigeria. Review of Innovation and Competitiveness, 4(1), 5–26.
• Ahiawodzi, A. K. ve Sackey, F. G. (2013). Determinants of credit rationing to the private sector in Ghana. African Journal of Business Management, 7(38), 3864-3874. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJBM09.462.
• Akşehirli, N. ve Karahan, Ö. (2023). Türkiye’de banka kredilerinin makro ve mikro belirleyicileri. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(2), 179-195.
• Al-Shammari, N. ve El-Sakka, M. (2018). Macroeconomic determinants of credit growth in OECD countries. International Journal of Business, 23(3).
• Baoko, G., Acheampong, I. A. ve Ibrahim, M. (2017). Determinants of bank credit in Ghana: A bounds-testing cointegration approach. African Review of Economics and Finance, 9 (1).
• Beck, T. ve Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(3). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9
• Beck, T., Demirguc-Kunt, A. ve Levine, R. (1999). A new database on financial development and structure. World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), 597–605.
• Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R. ve Lundblad, C. (2005). Does financial liberalization spur growth?. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(1), 3–55.
• Bekele, M., Sassi, M., Jemal, K. ve Ahmed, B. (2023). The dynamic linkage between renewable energy consumption and environmental sustainability in Sub-Saharan African countries: Heterogeneous macro-panel data analysis. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2285188.
• Busse, M. ve Hefeker, C. (2007). Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment. European Journal of Political Economy, 23, 397–415.
• Bustamante, J., Cuba, W. ve Nivin, R. (2019). Determinants of credit growth and the bank lending channel in Peru: a loan level analysis. BIS Working Papers, Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements.
• Canh, N. P., Schinckus, C., Su, T. D. ve Chong, F. H. L. (2020). Institutional quality and risk in the banking system. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science Emerald Publishing Limited, 2077-1886. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-01-2020-0012.
• Çatik, A.N., İlhan, A. ve Akdeniz, C. (2024). Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in the transport sector for OECD countries: a dynamic panel threshold approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res, 31, 6372–6384 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31468-7
• Davis, J.S., Mack, A., Phoa, W. ve Vandenabeele, A. (2016). Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account. J. Int. Money Finance, 60, 360–377. De Andrés, P., Gimeno, R. ve Mateos, R. (2021). The gender gap in bank credit Access. Journal of Corporate Finance, 71, 101782.
• Demir, E. ve Ozturk Danisman, G. (2021). The impact of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 57, 101444.
• Demirguc-Kunt, A. ve Levine, R. (2008). Finance, financial sector policies, and long-run growth. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, WPS4469.
• Dharmadasa, P. D. C. S. (2021). Short and long term determinants of bank credit growth in Sri Lanka. South Asian Journal of Finance, 1(1), 1–15.
• Djankov, S., McLiesh, C. ve Shleifer, A. (2007). Private credit in 129 countries. Journal of Financial Economics, 84(2), 299–329.
• Elekdag, S. ve Han, F. (2015). What drives credit growth in emerging Asia?. J. Asian Econ., 38, 1–13.
• Farzana, A., Samsudin, S. ve Hasan, J. (2024). Drivers of economic growth: a dynamic short panel data analysis using system GMM. Discov Sustain, 5, 393. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00612-9
• Gerti, S. ve Irini, K. (2013). Determinants of bank credit to the private sector: The case of Albania. Working Paper Bank of Albania.
• Ghosh, S., Herwadkar, S., Verma, R. ve Gopalakrishnan, P. (2023). Disentangling demand and supply side determinants of post‑GFC credit slowdown: an Indian perspective. Indian Economic Review, 58 (Suppl 2): S399–S421, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-023-00177-w.
• Gourinchas, P.–O. ve Obstfeld, M. (2012). Stories of the twentieth century for the twenty-first. Am. Econ. J. Macroecon., 4 (1), 226–265.
• Gozgor, G. (2014). Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: the role of external factors. Emerg. Mark. Rev., 18, 1–18.
• Gozgor, G. (2018). Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks. Research in International Business and Finance, 46, 430–443.
• Gozgor, G., Demir, E., Belas, J., & Yesilyurt, S. (2019). Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? An empirical investigation. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money, 63, 101147.
• Guo, K. ve Stepanyan, V. (2011). Determinants of bank credit in emerging market economies. International Monetary Fund Working Paper, No. 11/51. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
• Hossain, M. D. A., Eleais, M. D., Urbee, A. J., Hasan, M. D. A. ve Tahrim, F. (2024). Assessing the intensity of economic progress, industrialization, energy use on environmental degradation. South Asian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 5(1), 23–42. https://doi.org/10.48165/sajssh.2024.5102
• Huru, D., Ciobanu, R., Stoica, A. ve Mihai, D. G. (2024). Investigating the determinants of banking credit to government in OECD countries. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 58 (2).
• Idun, A. A., Agyei, S. K. ve Bainn, S. (2020). Determinants of the size of private sector credit disbursement in Ghana. Asian Development Policy Review, 8 (4), 260–276.
• Igan, D. ve Pinheiro, M. (2011). Credit growth and bank soundness: fast and furious?. IMF Working Paper, WP/11/278.
• Ilarslan, K. ve Yildiz, M. (2022a). The effects of terrorism and economic indicators on bank loans to the private sector: evidence from developing countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58 (2), 329-341. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2021.1952070.
• İlarslan, K. ve Yıldız, M. (2022b) Yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarının finansal belirleyicileri üzerine karşılaştırmalı bir analiz: Asya-Pasifik ve Latin Amerika ülkeleri. BMIJ, 10 (4), 1397-1415. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v10i4.2170.
• İlkay, S.Ç. ve Bilgili, F. (2025). Assessing the dynamics of international competitiveness based on high-tech exports: insights from a heterogeneous panel of selected G20 countries. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 37:1, 65-81. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2023.2280556.
• Immurana, M., Iddrisu, A. A. ve Boachie, M.K. (2021). Does taxation on harmful products influence population health? Evidence from Africa using the dynamic panel system GMM approach. Qual Quant, 55, 1091–1103 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01043-0
• Imran, K. ve Nishat, M. (2013). Determinants of bank credit in Pakistan: a supply side approach. Economic Modelling, 35, 384–390.
• Islam, D. (2022). Determinants of domestic bank credit to private sectors in Bangladesh: an empirical investigation. Journal of Economic Impact, 4 (2), 65-74
• Jammeh, I. Y. (2022). The relationship between domestic credit, financial development and economic growth in the Gambia. International Journal of Social Sciences Perspectives, 10(2), 43-60. https://doi.org/10.33094/ijssp.v10i2.598.
• Karimi, M. S., Doostkouei, S. G., Shaiban, M., Easvaralingam, Y. ve Khan, Y. A. (2024). Investigating the role of entrepreneurship in advancing renewable energy for sustainable development: Evidence from a System-GMM panel data approach. Sustainable Development, 32(4), 3329–3343. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2847.
• Kchikeche, A. ve Khallouk, O. (2021). On the nexus between economic growth and bank-based financial development: Evidence from Morocco. Middle East Development Journal, 13(2), 245–264.
• King, R.G. ve Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Q. J. Econ., 108 (3), 717–737. La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. ve Vishny, R.W. (1997). Legal determinants of external finance. J. Finance, 52 (3), 1131–1150.
• Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and Agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–726.
• Liu, H., Li, N., Zhao, S., Xue, P., Zhu, C. ve He, Y. (2025). The impact of supply chain and digitization on the development of environmental technologies: Unveiling the role of inflation and consumption in G7 nations. Energy Economics,142, 108165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108165.
• Love, I. ve Peria, M. S. M. (2012). How bank competition affects firms’ access to finance. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, WPS6163.
• Mahyar, H. (2017). The effect of inflation on financial development indicators in Iran (2000-2015). Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, 12(2), 53–62.
• Nampewo, D., Tinyinondi, G.A., Kawooya, D.R. ve Ssonko, G.W. (2016). Determinants of private sector credit in Uganda: the role of mobile money. Financial Innovation, 2(13). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-016-0033-x.
• Ndanshau, M. O. A. ve Semu, A. M. (2023). Determinants of bank credit supply to the private sector in Tanzania. African Journal of Economic Review, 11 (2).
• North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press.
• Obstfeld, M. (2012). Does the current account still matter?. Am. Econ. Rev., 102 (3), 1–23.
• Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. J Econom, 142, 50–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
• Rajan, R. G. (1994). Why bank credit policies fluctuate: A theory and some evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, No. 2, pp. 399-441.
• Rajan, R. G. (2005). Has financial development made the world riskier? NBER Working Paper. Rios-Morales, R., Gamberger, D., Smuc, T. ve Azuaje, F. (2009). Innovative methods in assessing political risk for business internationalization. Research in International Business and Finance, 23, 144–156.
• Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86–136.
• Ruiz,Y., Aguirre, N., Ponce, P. ve García, J. A. (2025). Differential impact of natural resource revenues on global public debt: A quantile regression approach. Resources Policy, 100, 105448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105448.
• Rusydiana, A. S. ve Ikhwan, I. (2023). Bank credit and economic growth: evidence from OIC countries. Accounting and Sustainability, 2(2).
• Saidy, E. N., Amri, M., Fattah, S. ve Nurbayani, S. U. (2024). Determinants of bank credit distribution in supporting regional economic growth in South Sulawesi Province. Journal of Distribution Science, 22 (8), 17–27.
• Samargandi, N. ve Kutan, A. M. (2016). Private credit spillovers and economic growth: evidence from BRICS countries. J. Int. Financ. Mark. Inst. Money, 44, 56–84.
• Sanga, B. ve Aziakpono, M. (2023). The effect of institutional factors on financial deepening: evidence from 50 African countries. Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, 3(2), 150–165. https://doi.org/10.1108/JBSED-12-2021-0175.
• Sharma, P. ve Gounder, N. (2012). Determinants of bank credit in small open economies: the case of six Pacific Island countries. Griffith Business School Discussion Papers, No. 2012-13.
• Sun, Y., Gozgor, G., Lau, C. K. M. ve Soliman, A. M. (2025). Inclusive finance and sustainability: The dynamic spillover effects of uncertainties on access to credit. Research in International Business and Finance, 73, 102628.
• Tomita, Y. (2024). Are bond markets and bank credits complementary or substitutable? Evidence based on the rule of law and countries’ legal origins. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 98, 101903.
• Úbeda, F., Forcadell, F. J., Aracil, E. ve Mendez, A. (2022). How sustainable banking fosters the SDG 10 in weak institutional environments. Journal of Business Research, 146, 277–287.
• Wajebo, T. W. ve Geda, A. (2025). Impact of exchange volatility on private- sector credit access in sub-Saharan African. Borsa Istanbul Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.031.
• Wen, J., Mahmood, H., Khalid, S. ve Zakaria, M. (2022). The impact of financial development on economic indicators: a dynamic panel data analysis. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35:1, 2930–2942. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1985570.
• World Bank (2025). World Development Indicators Dataset. World Bank, Washington, D.C. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS (Erişim: 15.05.2025)
• Zermeño, M. A. T., Martínez, F. V. ve Preciado, V. H. T. (2018). Effects of inflation on financial sector performance: New evidence from panel quantile regressions. Investigación Económica, LXXVII, núm. 303, enero-marzo de 2018, pp. 94–129.