BİTCOİN İLE TEKNOLOJİ ENDEKSLERİNİN ENTEGRASYONU ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİKLER: DCC-GARCH YAKLAŞIMI

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 13 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 154 - 165, 31.12.2025

Gökhan Berk Özbek

https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1808684

https://izlik.org/JA48NF64RA

Öz

Kripto varlıkların finans sistemi içerisindeki yerlerini yıllar itibariyle sağlamlaştırmaları, bu varlıkların geleneksel finansal enstrümanlarla olan etkileşimi konusundaki araştırmaları da oldukça hacimlendirmiştir. Özellikle, teknoloji alanında faaliyet gösteren şirketlerin finansal performansları blockchain teknolojilerinin gelişimi ile de ilişkili bir şekilde ön plana çıkmıştır. Bu çalışma kapsamında kripto varlıklar için bir benchmark konumunda olan Bitcoin’in, küresel piyasalarda öne çıkan teknoloji endekslerinin entegrasyonu üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu bağlamda sermaye piyasalarının derinliği ve genişliği bakımından önde gelen ülkelerdeki teknoloji sektörlerini kapsayan; Hang Seng Tech, FTSE All Technology ve Dow Jones Technology endeksleri arasındaki entegrasyon DCC-GARCH yöntemi ile modellenmiştir. Bir sonraki aşamada ise Bitcoin’in endekslerin dinamik korelasyonları üzerindeki kısa dönem etkileri Granger Nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Araştırma 2015-2025 yılları arasındaki 10 yıllık bir periyodu kapsamaktadır. Araştırmada haftalık veri setleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular Bitcoin fiyat hareketliliklerinin Hang Seng Tech-FTSE All Technology ve Dow Jones Technology-FTSE All Technology arasındaki dinamik korelasyonların Granger nedeni olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, Bitcoin’in yalnızca alternatif bir yatırım aracı olarak değil, aynı zamanda teknoloji sektöründeki finansal entegrasyonu etkileyebilecek bir unsur olarak da değerlendirilmesi gerektiğine işaret etmektedir. Bu açıdan, kripto varlıkların küresel teknoloji piyasalarıyla olan etkileşimlerinin hem düzenleyici otoriteler ve politika yapıcılar tarafından hem de portföy ve risk yönetimi bağlamında yatırımcılar tarafından daha yakından izlenmesi önem arz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bitcoin , Teknoloji Endeksi , DCC-GARCH

DYNAMICS BETWEEN BITCOIN AND TECHNOLOGY INDICES INTEGRATION: A DCC-GARCH APPROACH

https://izlik.org/JA48NF64RA

Öz

The solidification of crypto assets' positions within the finance system over the years has significantly expanded research on the interaction of these assets with traditional financial instruments. In particular, the financial performance of companies operating in the technology sector has come to the forefront in relation to the development of blockchain technologies. Within the scope of this study, the effect of Bitcoin, which is a benchmark for crypto assets, on the integration of prominent technology indices in global markets has been investigated. In this context, the integration among the Hang Seng Tech, FTSE All Technology and Dow Jones Technology indices, which cover the technology sectors in leading countries in terms of capital market depth and breadth, has been modeled using the DCC-GARCH method. In the next stage, Bitcoin's short-term effects on the dynamic correlations of the indices were examined with the Granger Causality test. The research covers a 10-year period between 2015-2025. Weekly datasets were used in the research. Empirical findings show that Bitcoin price movements are the Granger cause of dynamic correlations between Hang Seng Tech-FTSE All Technology and Dow Jones Technology-FTSE All Technology. This result indicates that Bitcoin should be evaluated not only as an alternative investment instrument but also as an element that can affect financial integration in the technology sector. In this respect, it is important that the interactions of crypto assets with global technology markets be monitored more closely both by regulatory authorities and policymakers, as well as by investors in the context of portfolio and risk management.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bitcoin , Technology Index , DCC-GARCH

Kaynakça

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