HALKA ARZ ENDEKSİNİ ETKİLEYEN MAKROEKONOMİK FAKTÖRLER

Öz

Halka arz, sermaye piyasalarının canlılığına ve yatırımcıların risk alma eğilimlerine dair önemli bir gösterge niteliği taşımaktadır. Halka arz endeksi, bu eğilimleri yansıtarak hem şirketlerin piyasa koşullarına göre stratejik kararlar almasına hem de yatırımcıların piyasa algısının izlenmesine olanak tanır. Bu nedenle halka arz endeksini etkileyen makroekonomik ve finansal faktörlerin belirlenmesi, piyasa dinamiklerini anlamada kritik bir rol üstlenmektedir. Bu doğrultuda çalışma, Haziran 2012- Mart 2025 döneminde Türkiye’de halka arz endeksinin makroekonomik faktörlere nasıl tepki verdiğini ampirik olarak ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada makroekonomik değişkenler olarak dolar kuru, altın fiyatı, faiz oranı ve tüketici güven endeksi kullanılmıştır. Analizde Johansen eş bütünleşme testi ve kantil regresyon analizi uygulanmıştır. Johansen testi bulguları, değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir denge ilişkisi bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kantil regresyon analizi sonuçları değerlendirildiğinde, altın fiyatlarının halka arz endeksi üzerindeki etkisi medyan kantile kadar pozitif yönde seyrederken, yüksek kantil seviyelerinde bu ilişki negatife dönmektedir. Faiz oranı değişkeni ise ilk sekiz kantil boyunca halka arz endeksini pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Döviz kuru ile tüketici güven endeksi arasındaki ilişki tüm kantil düzeylerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönlüdür. Elde edilen sonuçlar faiz oranları, döviz kurları, altın fiyatları ve tüketici güveni gibi makroekonomik göstergelerin, halka arz endeksindeki hareketleri önceden tahmin etmede önemli rol oynadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• halka arz
• faiz
• dolar
• altın
• güven
• kantil regresyon

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING INDEX AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

Öz

The IPO index reflects market vitality and investor risk appetite, influencing corporate strategy and shaping investor perception. Therefore, determining the macroeconomic and financial factors that affect the IPO index is critical for understanding market dynamics. Accordingly, the study seeks to empirically examine how the IPO index in Turkey responded to macroeconomic factors from June 2012 to March 2025. The study uses the ER, GGP, DR, and CI as macroeconomic variables. Johansen's cointegration test and quantile regression analysis are used. The results of Johansen’s cointegration test indicate the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables. When evaluating the quantile regression analysis results, the effect of GGP on the IPO index is positive up to the median quantile. At the same time, this relationship turns negative at high quantile levels. The interest rate variable has a positive effect on the IPO index across the first eight quantiles. Conversely, the relationship between the DR and the CI is positive and statistically significant across all quantile levels. The results show that selected macroeconomic indicators play an important role in predicting movements in the IPO index.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• initial public offering(IPO)
• exchange rate
• interest rate
• gold price
• consumer confidence
• quantile regression

Kaynakça

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