Makroekonomik ve Kurumsal Faktörlerin Enerji Belirsizliği Üzerindeki Eşitsiz Etkileri: Bir Kantil Regresyon Perspektifi

Öz

Bu çalışma G-20 ülkelerinde enerji kaynaklı belirsizliği etkileyen faktörleri analiz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda yeşil teknoloji, ekonomik büyüme (GDP), yeşil enerji arzı, küreselleşme, hükümet etkinliği ve özel sektöre sağlanan yerel krediler bağımsız değişkenler olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmanın analiz dönemi 2000-2022 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. Ampirik analizde MMQRG (Method of Moments Quantile Regression) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, ekonomik büyüme tüm kantillerde enerji belirsizliğini istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönde etkilerken, yeşil teknoloji yalnızca 0.50 kantiline kadar istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuş ve bu etkinin negatif yönlü olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca, hükümet etkinliği 0.30 kantilinden itibaren anlamlı hale gelmiş ve enerji belirsizliği üzerinde azaltıcı bir etki yaratmıştır. Diğer bağımsız değişkenlerin ise tüm kantillerde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi gözlenmemiştir. Bu sonuçlar, enerji belirsizliğinin nedenlerinin kantiller arasında farklılaştığını ortaya koymakta; dolayısıyla ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyine ve kurumsal kapasitelerine bağlı olarak politika etkilerinin değişebileceğini göstermektedir. Politika yapıcılara, özellikle ekonomik büyüme süreçlerinin yol açtığı belirsizlikleri azaltmak için yeşil teknoloji yatırımlarını teşvik etmeleri ve kurumsal etkinliği güçlendirmeleri önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji Belirsizliği İndeksi
• Yeşil Teknoloji
• Yeşil Enerji Arzı
• Küreselleşme
• Hükümet Etkinliği
• Büyüme

THE UNEQUAL EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC AND INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS ON ENERGY UNCERTAINTY: A QUANTILE REGRESSION PERSPECTIVE

Öz

This study analyzes the determinants of energy-related uncertainty in G-20 countries. To this end, green technology, economic growth (GDP), green energy supply, globalization, government effectiveness and domestic credit to the private sector are included in the model as independent variables. The analysis period of the study covers the years 2000-2022. MMQRG (Method of Moments Quantile Regression) estimator is used in the empirical analysis. According to the findings, economic growth has a statistically significant and positive effect on energy uncertainty in all quantiles, while green technology is statistically significant only up to quantile 0.50 and this effect is negative. Moreover, government efficiency becomes significant from quantile 0.30 onwards and has a dampening effect on energy uncertainty. The other independent variables did not have a statistically significant effect in all quantiles. These results reveal that the causes of energy uncertainty differ across quantiles; hence, policy effects may vary depending on the level of development and institutional capacities of countries. Policy makers are advised to encourage green technology investments and strengthen institutional effectiveness, especially to reduce uncertainties caused by economic growth processes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Energy Uncertainty Index
• Green Technology
• Green Energy Supply
• Globalization
• Government Efficiency
• Growth

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