YENİLİKLER VE BELİRSİZLİK YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ DİNAMİKLERİNİ NASIL ŞEKİLLENDİRİYOR? TÜRKİYE İÇİN MODİFİYE EDİLMİŞ ÇAPRAZ KANTİL REGRESYON ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1992-2022 dönemini kapsayan Türkiye’ye ait yıllık verileri kullanarak yeniliklerin ve belirsizliğin yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi (REC) üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Koşullu dağılımın farklı segmentlerindeki değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri incelemek için bu çalışmada Cross-Quantile Regression (CQR) yaklaşımı kullanılırken, ampirik bulguların sağlamlığı, Modified Quantile Regression (MQR) ve Quantile-on-Quantile Kernel Regularized Least Squares (QQKRLS) yöntemleri kullanılarak daha da doğrulanmıştır. Sonuçlar, teknolojik inovasyonun yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi üzerinde tutarlı bir şekilde olumlu bir etki yarattığını ve en güçlü etkilerin medyan kuantilde gözlemlendiğini göstermektedir; bu da yenilenebilir enerji penetrasyonu daha yüksek seviyelere ulaştıkça marjinal getirilerin azaldığını düşündürmektedir. Çevresel inovasyon, eşik değerine bağlı bir model sergilemektedir: etkisi, REC'nin daha düşük kuantilinde zayıf veya hatta negatiftir, ancak daha yüksek kuantilde güçlü bir şekilde pozitif ve artan bir hal almaktadır; bu da yeşil inovasyonun ancak yenilenebilir enerji benimsemesi kritik bir seviyeye ulaştığında etkili hale geldiğini göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, belirsizlik rejime özgü bir etki sergilemekte; düşük REC rejimlerinde hafif bir katalizör görevi görürken, daha yüksek quantillerde REC'yi önemli ölçüde kısıtlamaktadır. MQR ve Averaged CQR (ACQR) tahminleri arasındaki yüksek tutarlılık, bulguların sağlamlığını daha da teyit etmektedir. Genel olarak, kanıtlar, inovasyon-belirsizlik-yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ilişkisini değerlendirirken dağılım dinamiklerini hesaba katmanın önemini vurgulamakta ve enerji geçişini ilerletmede politika istikrarı ve inovasyon kapasitesinin kritik rolünü ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi
• Teknolojik yenilik
• Çevresel yenilik
• Belirsizlik
• Türkiye

HOW INNOVATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY SHAPE RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION? A MODIFIED CROSS-QUANTILE REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR TÜRKIYE

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of innovations and uncertainly on renewable energy consumption (REC) using annual data for Türkiye covering the period 1992-2022. To examine the relationships between variables across different segments of the conditional distribution, this study employs the Cross-Quantile Regression (CQR) approach, while the robustness of the empirical findings is further validated using Modified Quantile Regression (MQR) and Quantile-on-Quantile Kernel Regularized Least Squares (QQKRLS). The results indicate that technological innovation exerts a consistently positive effect on renewable energy consumption, with the strongest impacts observed at the median quantiles, suggesting diminishing marginal returns as renewable energy penetration reaches higher levels. Environmental innovation exhibits a threshold-dependent pattern: its impact is weak or even negative at lower quantiles of REC, but becomes strongly positive and increasing at higher quantiles, indicating that green innovation becomes effective only once renewable energy adoption reaches a critical level. In contrast, uncertainty exhibits a regime-specific effect, acting as a mild catalyst in low-REC regimes while significantly constraining REC at higher quantiles. The high degree of consistency between the MQR and Averaged CQR (ACQR) estimates further confirms the robustness of the findings. Overall, the evidence underscores the importance of accounting for distributional dynamics when assessing the innovations-uncertainty-renewable energy consumption nexus and highlights the critical role of policy stability and innovation capacity in advancing the energy transition.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Renewable energy consumption
• Technological innovation
• Environmental innovation
• Uncertainty
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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