DEMOGRAFİK DÖNÜŞÜM VE BAĞIMLILIK ORANLARININ KADIN İŞ GÜCÜNE KATILIM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Demografik dönüşüm sürecinde nüfusun yaş bileşiminde meydana gelen değişimler, iş gücü arzı ve toplumsal cinsiyet temelli emek dağılımı üzerinde belirleyici etkiler ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Demografik değişim kuramının öngördüğü üzere doğurganlık ve ölümlülük oranlarındaki gerileme, çocuk ve yaşlı nüfusun göreli ağırlığını dönüştürmekte; bu dönüşüm bakım gereksiniminin düzeyini ve niteliğini yeniden şekillendirmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de çocuk bağımlılık oranı, yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ve toplam bağımlılık oranı bakım yükünün demografik vekilleri olarak ele alınmakta ve kadın iş gücüne katılım üzerindeki etkileri yıllık veriler kullanılarak Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) yaklaşımı çerçevesinde analiz edilmektedir. Bulgular, kadın iş gücüne katılım ile demografik bağımlılık oranları arasında uzun dönemli bir eş bütünleşme ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Çocuk bağımlılık oranı uzun dönemde katılımı azaltıcı yönde anlamlı bir etki üretirken yaşlı bağımlılığın etkisi daha çok kısa dönem dinamikler üzerinden ortaya çıkmaktadır. Sonuçlar, demografik dönüşüm sürecinde kadın istihdamının sürdürülebilir biçimde artırılabilmesi için bakım hizmetlerinin kurumsal kapasitesinin belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Demografik Dönüşüm
• Bağımlılık Oranı
• Kadın İşgücüne Katılım
• Bakım Ekonomisi

THE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND DEPENDENCY RATIOS ON FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: THE CASE OF TÜRKİYE

Öz

Changes in the age composition of the population during the demographic transition process generate significant effects on labor supply and the gendered division of labor. As demographic transition theory suggests, declines in fertility and mortality rates alter the relative weight of child and elderly populations, thereby reshaping both the level and the structure of care needs. In this study, the child dependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio, and total dependency ratio in Türkiye are treated as demographic proxies for care burden, and their effects on female labor force participation are analyzed using annual data within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The findings indicate the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship between female labor force participation and demographic dependency ratios. While the child dependency ratio exerts a significant negative long-run effect on participation, the impact of old-age dependency primarily emerges through short-run dynamics. The results highlight that strengthening the institutional capacity of care services is crucial for sustaining women’s labor force participation during the demographic transition process.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Demographic Transition
• Dependency Ratio
• Female Labor Force Participation
• Care Economy

Kaynakça

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