TEMPO EFFECTS ON PERIOD FERTILITY IN TURKEY: A STUDY FROM TURKEY DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 1, 43 - 54, 05.08.2016

Tuğba Adalı

Öz

Turkey has been experiencing significant fertility decline since the 1950s. Increasing
mean ages at childbearing have accompanied this decline, thus studies regarding tempo
effects are necessary for Turkey. The main aim of this study is to reveal the tempo distortions
in recent period fertility in Turkey as a whole and for different sub-groups by using an
adjustment procedure. A procedure by Bongaarts and Feeney corrects period TFR for tempo
distortions, using changes in mean ages at childbearing by birth order. The adjusted TFR
reflects the level of fertility that would have been observed in the absence of changes in
timing. Since vital registration system in Turkey does not provide necessary data for the
method, the study employs data from two successive demographic surveys, TDHS-1998 and
TDHS-2003. Findings show the existence of tempo distortions in period fertility in Turkey.
Tempo distortions appear to be higher for women in higher fertility areas.

TÜRKİYE’DE DÖNEMSEL DOĞURGANLIK ÜZERİNDEKİ ZAMANLAMA ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE NÜFUS VE SAĞLIK ARAŞTIRMALARI’NDAN BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz

Türkiye’de doğurganlık 1950’li yıllardan beri ciddi bir şekilde düşmektedir. Bu düşüşle
birlikte ortalama çocuk doğurma yaşlarında artışlar da görülmüştür. Bu nedenle Türkiye’de
doğurganlık göstergeleri üzerinde zamanlama etkilerine ilişkin çalışmalara ihityaç vardır. Bu
çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye’de yakın dönemdeki toplam doğurganlık hızlarındaki zamanlama
etkilerini ortaya çıkartmaktır. Bu işlem hem Türkiye geneli için, hem de nüfusun çeşitli alt-grupları
için yapılmıştır. Kullanılan düzeltme işlemi Bongaarts ve Feeney tarafından geliştirilmiştir. Bu
yöntem doğum sırasına göre toplam doğurganlık hızını, ortalama çocuk doğurma yaşlarındaki
değişimi kullanarak düzeltmektedir. Düzeltilmiş TDH, doğurganlığın zamanlamasındaki
değişimlerin yokluğunda gözlemlenecek olan doğurganlık düzeyini işaret eder. Hayati kayıt
sistemlerinden bu yöntem için gerekli bilgiler temin edilemediği için iki tane demografik
araştırmanın verileri kullanılmıştır: TNSA-1998 ve TNSA-2003. Bulgular Türkiye’de dönemsel
doğurganlık göstergelerinde zamanlama etkilerinin olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu etkilerin yüksek
doğurganlık görülen bölgelerde daha yüksek olduğu gözlenmiştir.

Kaynakça

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