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AVRUPA BIRLİĞİ ÜLKELERINDE REEL KİŞİ BAŞINA GSYİH DURAĞAN MI? NON-LINEAR PANEL BIRIM KÖK TESTİ

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 106 - 115, 01.04.2013

Sevinç Yaraşir Tülümce Fatma Zeren

Öz

Reelkişi başına GDP serilerinin durağan olup olmadığı politika yapımcıları ve ekonomistler için önemlidir. Günümüzde panel birim kök testinin geleneksel birim kök testlerine göre sahip olduğu avantajlardan dolayı, günümüzde GSYİH serilerindeki birim kökün varlığı tekrar analiz edilmektedir.Bu çalışmada, son zamanlarda geliştirilmiş olan non-linear panel birim kök testi ile 1970-2011 dönem aralığında 15 Avrupa Birliği üye ülkesi için reel kişi başına GDP serisinin durağan bir süreç izleyip izlemediği incelenmektedir. Ampirik bulgular reel kişi başına GDP`nin 15 Avrupa Birliği ülkesi için doğrusal olmayan durağan bir yapıya sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Reel Kişi Başına GDP AB Üye Ülkeleri Durağanlık Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testi Bootstrap Kritik Değer

Kaynakça

  • Breusch, T. and Pagan, A., (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics. Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, pp: 239-253.
  • Chang, T., Chang, H.L., Chu, H.P., and Su, C.W., (2006). Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in African Countries? Evidence from Panel SURADF Test. Applied Economics Letters, 13, pp: 1003-1008.
  • Chang, T., Lee, K., Kang, S., and Liu, W., (2008). Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in Latin American Countries? Evidence From A Panel Stationary Test With Structural Breaks. Economics Bulletin, 3(31), pp: 1-12.
  • Chang, H., Su, C., and Zhu, M., (2010). Is Middle East Countries Per Capita Real GDP Stationary? Evidence From Non-Linear Panel Unit Root Tests. Middle Eastren Finance And Economics, Issue: 6, pp: 64-76.
  • Chang, T., (2011). Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary? An Empirical Note for 16 Transition Countries. International Journal of Business and Economics, 10 (1), pp: 81-86.
  • Chang, H.L. and Su, C.W., (2011). Is Per Capita Real Gdp Stationary? Non-Linear Panel Unit-Root Tests From Eastern- European Countries. Journal of Economics and Business, Volume: XIV, No: 2, pp: 65-74.
  • Chang, H.L., Su, C.W., and Zhu, M.N., (2011). Flexible Fourier Stationary Test in GDP Per Capita for Central Eastern European Countries. Zb. Rad. Ekon. Fak. Rij, 29 (1), pp: 51-63
  • Chen, S.W., (2008). Are 19 Developed Countries’ Real Per Capita GDP Level Nonstationary? A Revisit. Economics Bulletin, 3, pp: 1-11.
  • Cogley, T., (1990). International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output. Journal of Political Economy, 96, pp: 501-518.
  • Çınar, S., (2010). OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına GSYİH Durağan mı? Panel Veri Analizi. MÜ İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: XXIX, Sayı: II, pp: 591-601.
  • De Haan, J. and Zelhorst, D., (1993). Does Output Have A Unit Root: New International Evidence. Applied Economics, 25, pp: 953-960.
  • Fleissig, A.R. and Strauss, J., (1999). Is OECD Real Per Capita GDP Trend Or Difference Stationary? Evidence From Panel Unit Root Test. Journal of Macroeconomics, 21(4), pp: 673-690.
  • Furuoka, F., (2011). Is GDP in ASEAN Countries Stationary? New Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests. Economic Bulletin, 31(2), pp: 1391-1400.
  • Genc, I.H., Darayseh, M., and Abual-Foul, B., (2011). The Nature of Trends in The Per Capita Real GDP of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: Some Evidence and Implications. The Journal of Developing Areas, 45 (1), pp: 19-33.
  • Guloglu, B. and Ivrendi, M., (2010). Output Fluctuations: Transitory Or Permanent? The Case Of Latin America. Applied Economics Letters, 17:4, pp: 381-386.
  • Hegwood, N. and Papell, D.H., (2007). Are Real GDP Levels Trend, Difference, or Regime-Wise Trend Stationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests Incorporating Structural Change. Southern Economic Journal, Volume: 74, No: 1, pp: 104-113.
  • Hurlin, C., (2004). Nelson and Plosser Revisited: A Re- examination Using OECD Panel Data. Document de Recherche No. 2004/23, Laboratoire d’Economie ’Orleans.
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., and Shin, Y., (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Economics, 115, pp: 53–74.
  • Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., and Snell, A., (2003). Testing for A Unit Root in The Nonlinear STAR Framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112, pp: 359–379.
  • Murthy, V.N. and Anoruo, E., (2009). Are Per Capita Real GDP Series in African Countries Non-stationary or Nonlinear? What Does Empirical Evidence Reveal?. Economics Bulletin, Volume: 29, Issue: 4, pp: 2-13.
  • Narayan, P.K., (2007). Are G7 Per Capita Real GDP Levels Non- Stationary 1870–2001. Japan and The World Economy, 19, pp: 374– 379.
  • Nelson, C.R. and Plosser, C.I., (1982). Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, pp: 139–162.
  • Öztürk, I. and Kalyoncu, H., (2007). Is Per Capita Real Stationary in The OECD Countries?. Ekonomski Pregled, 58 (11), pp: 680-688.
  • Pesaran, H., (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435.
  • Rapach, D.E., (2002). Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests. Southern Economic Journal, Volume: 68, No: 3, pp: 473-495.
  • Stulz, R.M. and Wasserfallen, W., (1985). Macroeconomic Time Series, Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policies. Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 22, pp: 9-54
  • Tiwari, A.K., Shahbaz, M., and Shabbir, M.S., (2012). Is Per Capita GDP Non-linear Stationary in SAARC Countries?. European Economics Letters, 1 (1), pp: 1–5
  • Ucar, N. and Omay, T., (2009). Testing for Unit Root in Nonlinear Heterogeneous Panels. Economic letters, 104, pp: 5-8
  • Zhang, N., Peirchyi, L., Huang, Y., and Su, C., (2007). Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in China? Evidence Based On A Panel SURADF Approach. Economic Bulletin, 3 (31), pp: 1-12.

IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 106 - 115, 01.04.2013

Sevinç Yaraşir Tülümce Fatma Zeren

Öz

It is important for policy makers and economists whether or not the real per capita GDP is stationary. Nowadays, because of the panel unit root tests have over traditional unit root tests, the presence of unit root in the GDP series is under re-examination. The research presented in this paper applies the recently developed unit root test for nonlinear heterogeneous panel in order to re-examine whether or not the real per capita GDP follows a stationary process for 15 European Union member states over the period 1970-2011. Empirical evidence shows that the real per capita GDP is nonlinear-stationary for the EU-15 member states.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Real Per Capita GDP EU Member States Stationarity Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Test Bootstrap Citical Value

Kaynakça

  • Breusch, T. and Pagan, A., (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics. Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, pp: 239-253.
  • Chang, T., Chang, H.L., Chu, H.P., and Su, C.W., (2006). Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in African Countries? Evidence from Panel SURADF Test. Applied Economics Letters, 13, pp: 1003-1008.
  • Chang, T., Lee, K., Kang, S., and Liu, W., (2008). Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in Latin American Countries? Evidence From A Panel Stationary Test With Structural Breaks. Economics Bulletin, 3(31), pp: 1-12.
  • Chang, H., Su, C., and Zhu, M., (2010). Is Middle East Countries Per Capita Real GDP Stationary? Evidence From Non-Linear Panel Unit Root Tests. Middle Eastren Finance And Economics, Issue: 6, pp: 64-76.
  • Chang, T., (2011). Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary? An Empirical Note for 16 Transition Countries. International Journal of Business and Economics, 10 (1), pp: 81-86.
  • Chang, H.L. and Su, C.W., (2011). Is Per Capita Real Gdp Stationary? Non-Linear Panel Unit-Root Tests From Eastern- European Countries. Journal of Economics and Business, Volume: XIV, No: 2, pp: 65-74.
  • Chang, H.L., Su, C.W., and Zhu, M.N., (2011). Flexible Fourier Stationary Test in GDP Per Capita for Central Eastern European Countries. Zb. Rad. Ekon. Fak. Rij, 29 (1), pp: 51-63
  • Chen, S.W., (2008). Are 19 Developed Countries’ Real Per Capita GDP Level Nonstationary? A Revisit. Economics Bulletin, 3, pp: 1-11.
  • Cogley, T., (1990). International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output. Journal of Political Economy, 96, pp: 501-518.
  • Çınar, S., (2010). OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına GSYİH Durağan mı? Panel Veri Analizi. MÜ İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: XXIX, Sayı: II, pp: 591-601.
  • De Haan, J. and Zelhorst, D., (1993). Does Output Have A Unit Root: New International Evidence. Applied Economics, 25, pp: 953-960.
  • Fleissig, A.R. and Strauss, J., (1999). Is OECD Real Per Capita GDP Trend Or Difference Stationary? Evidence From Panel Unit Root Test. Journal of Macroeconomics, 21(4), pp: 673-690.
  • Furuoka, F., (2011). Is GDP in ASEAN Countries Stationary? New Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests. Economic Bulletin, 31(2), pp: 1391-1400.
  • Genc, I.H., Darayseh, M., and Abual-Foul, B., (2011). The Nature of Trends in The Per Capita Real GDP of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: Some Evidence and Implications. The Journal of Developing Areas, 45 (1), pp: 19-33.
  • Guloglu, B. and Ivrendi, M., (2010). Output Fluctuations: Transitory Or Permanent? The Case Of Latin America. Applied Economics Letters, 17:4, pp: 381-386.
  • Hegwood, N. and Papell, D.H., (2007). Are Real GDP Levels Trend, Difference, or Regime-Wise Trend Stationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests Incorporating Structural Change. Southern Economic Journal, Volume: 74, No: 1, pp: 104-113.
  • Hurlin, C., (2004). Nelson and Plosser Revisited: A Re- examination Using OECD Panel Data. Document de Recherche No. 2004/23, Laboratoire d’Economie ’Orleans.
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., and Shin, Y., (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Economics, 115, pp: 53–74.
  • Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., and Snell, A., (2003). Testing for A Unit Root in The Nonlinear STAR Framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112, pp: 359–379.
  • Murthy, V.N. and Anoruo, E., (2009). Are Per Capita Real GDP Series in African Countries Non-stationary or Nonlinear? What Does Empirical Evidence Reveal?. Economics Bulletin, Volume: 29, Issue: 4, pp: 2-13.
  • Narayan, P.K., (2007). Are G7 Per Capita Real GDP Levels Non- Stationary 1870–2001. Japan and The World Economy, 19, pp: 374– 379.
  • Nelson, C.R. and Plosser, C.I., (1982). Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, pp: 139–162.
  • Öztürk, I. and Kalyoncu, H., (2007). Is Per Capita Real Stationary in The OECD Countries?. Ekonomski Pregled, 58 (11), pp: 680-688.
  • Pesaran, H., (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435.
  • Rapach, D.E., (2002). Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests. Southern Economic Journal, Volume: 68, No: 3, pp: 473-495.
  • Stulz, R.M. and Wasserfallen, W., (1985). Macroeconomic Time Series, Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policies. Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 22, pp: 9-54
  • Tiwari, A.K., Shahbaz, M., and Shabbir, M.S., (2012). Is Per Capita GDP Non-linear Stationary in SAARC Countries?. European Economics Letters, 1 (1), pp: 1–5
  • Ucar, N. and Omay, T., (2009). Testing for Unit Root in Nonlinear Heterogeneous Panels. Economic letters, 104, pp: 5-8
  • Zhang, N., Peirchyi, L., Huang, Y., and Su, C., (2007). Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in China? Evidence Based On A Panel SURADF Approach. Economic Bulletin, 3 (31), pp: 1-12.
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Maliye
Yazarlar

Sevinç Yaraşir Tülümce Bu kişi benim

Fatma Zeren Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Nisan 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Tülümce, S. . Y., & Zeren, F. (2013). IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL. Social Sciences, 8(3), 106-115. https://doi.org/10.12739/NWSA.2013.8.3.3C0112
AMA Tülümce SY, Zeren F. IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL. Social Sciences. Nisan 2013;8(3):106-115. doi:10.12739/NWSA.2013.8.3.3C0112
Chicago Tülümce, Sevinç Yaraşir, ve Fatma Zeren. “IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL”. Social Sciences 8, sy. 3 (Nisan 2013): 106-15. https://doi.org/10.12739/NWSA.2013.8.3.3C0112.
EndNote Tülümce SY, Zeren F (01 Nisan 2013) IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL. Social Sciences 8 3 106–115.
IEEE S. . Y. Tülümce ve F. Zeren, “IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL”, Social Sciences, c. 8, sy. 3, ss. 106–115, 2013, doi: 10.12739/NWSA.2013.8.3.3C0112.
ISNAD Tülümce, Sevinç Yaraşir - Zeren, Fatma. “IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL”. Social Sciences 8/3 (Nisan 2013), 106-115. https://doi.org/10.12739/NWSA.2013.8.3.3C0112.
JAMA Tülümce SY, Zeren F. IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL. Social Sciences. 2013;8:106–115.
MLA Tülümce, Sevinç Yaraşir ve Fatma Zeren. “IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL”. Social Sciences, c. 8, sy. 3, 2013, ss. 106-15, doi:10.12739/NWSA.2013.8.3.3C0112.
Vancouver Tülümce SY, Zeren F. IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL. Social Sciences. 2013;8(3):106-15.